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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Continuing the trends, 6z RGEM is uber cold as precip adverts northward between 45-54hrs. Has freezing rain all the way down the SW NC mountains. I can see the NWS offices are tepid with their forecasts, naturally so as it’s the 13th of NOV but guidance continues to suggest this being a moderate event imo, especially for NOV standards for a lot of the mountain and foothill regions of the area.

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong, and an Aleutian ridge appears at the same time for the first time since July. I think it could lead to a warmer December if verified, the way it tears apart the PV. 

FFF219CE-7A4E-47DD-BE14-B01F1C5AC2F4.jpeg.1e45bc7c664bc035c27437f9c9c8dc86.jpeg

looks pretty promising to me 

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14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. 

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

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14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

I am south of you by a few miles..... I am expecting about the same. Good signs for winter.

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49 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. 

We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...…..

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How about a mixed bag!

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds around
10 mph this evening, becoming light and variable. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph in the
afternoon. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain. Ice accumulation of up
to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Rain and freezing rain in the morning, then rain
likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow
showers, mainly in the evening. Little or no snow accumulation.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
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8 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...…..

Yes. Need to hope we hold onto sleet longer than projected. 

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14 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea but then you get a thick layer of sleet that easily ices over ones the ZR starts.  Not sure that’s any better.  Probably worse for the roads. 

Sleets not bad its the leaves on the trees guna have major power problems if it's predominately zr. Sleets like gravel tbh easier to brake on vs snow ice anyway what about a thread guys who guna bring the mojo as in a nice cold rain lol

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