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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. 

Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. 

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. 

The 32k nam is in absolute perfect position at 60 hrs with the HP right around the Binghamton NY area. That imo is where we have our major ice storms due to funneling of the cold air coming straight out of the St Lawrence Valley. As you alluded to as well it strengthened the mb by 2 with a 1038 now being progged. Def a concern at this point. GFS resembles anything remotely close I’d start honking. 

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1 hour ago, cg2916 said:

What I'm confused by is why 3k is showing snow depth for MBY even though the whole column is above freezing (or just at it, at best) the whole time?

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018111300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=

Use the Pivotal Weather maps for the NAM snowfall, they are much more accurate and use a better algorithm to distinguish between snow, ice and cold rain. The Tropical Tidbits maps have major issues on the NAM snowfall maps and can be very misleading in a setup like this. 

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I honestly couldn't tell you exactly what's going on with the TT snowmaps, but something is funky with how the algorithm is coded and it's producing a lot of spurious totals. Trash those maps. We're not getting any snow whatsoever with this system. 

We're familiar with the tropes surrounding CAD wintry mix events. They often (but not always) trend colder and stronger, especially at event onset when models have a very hard time modeling the in-situ nature of some CADs. I could see that happening a little here. Generally, this is still a pretty textbook look for a CAD wintry event and I'd be on my toes for a lot of folks in the Triad and along i77 to maybe Statesville to see advisory level sleet/ice accums. 

Now that being said, let's hold our horses just a little bit. If this were January, I think this would have potential to be a major ice storm for a lot of NC. But, fortunately, it's still only November, and these cold air lobes are still in their nascency. I don't like curtailing a forecast based on climatology, because that's bitten me in the butt before, but I think it's important to take a step back and realize that this is already a rare event for mid-November, and a colder, more expansive icy area is just making an already anomalous event *more* anomalous. One last thing to address- Some folks have rightly acknowledged that ice is a self limiting process, and I think that is a concern with this. I don't think that cold air advection will do the trick keeping things below freezing. In a CAD event, your cold air source is coming further north along the mountains. In this event, that air won't be fresh cold, dry air! In Greensboro, that cold air advection will be shuffling in air that has *already* had a lot of latent heat added to it from icing upstream! 

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