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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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42 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is what happens when you get the 591dm-594dm death ridge parked over you for 30 days.And this is why I always keep my eyes open for it in the summer,it also directs any hurricanes this way as well..Hot month no doubt but July and August both ran 0+2 with much lower heights and more rain chances.

Sorry to say but I think we got at least 8-10 more days of it,very stubborn to move lately.

 

Great find.  Going to borrow this for the TN forum.  For us in NE TN, September was hotter than August.

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Here is the latest 7-day precipitation forecast across the lower 48. There are ongoing heavy rain concerns across the middle of the nation, followed by newly named Tropical Storm Michael in the East and remnant tropical moisture into the West from Hurricane Sergio in the ePac.Do8JftvXsAEWWtH.jpg

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Today may qualify as the first Cold Rain of the season. Gonna be a wet winter no doubt with weak el nino. Thanks to Florence and Michael already out of the gate warp speed. Sure Brick is gonna love all these cold drizzle days while we chase snow all winter lol.

The leafs are runing over 2 weeks behind schedule espeacilly in mtns. Ill be up next weekend, so hopefully the cool wx this week post Monday can flip the switch real quick. We usually hit peak Halloween day into the first week of November here. Think ours will be late as well. The Mtns should already be passing their peak mid October and like all of us green, thanks to the record long lasting warmth.

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11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The FV3 has been adamant about bringing a pretty deep trough down in the longer range(after day 10) for about 4 or 5 runs in a row now.

Be a good test to see if this model is legit or just noise.if right it might go straight to winter for a bit.

Just something to observe.

Yes.  I want to see a lot of this during the winter.

gL2hjDD.png

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10 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. 

That was a good little read. Lot to look forward to where things stand now Oct 16. As the next 4-6 weeks unfold we should see the players lining up. Lets just hope the configuration ends up being in the right spots. Once the table is set, we can start passing around the entrees and eat. See if the new /soon to be GFS is onto something with this late month storm signal. Nice ice storm in the cad areas. But its not unusual to get some type of big wx event/storm on the eastern seaboard late October. Seems every 2-3 years now we are in a cycle that produces a news maker wx event.

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38 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices would support a cold/stormy late October. 

PNA - Goes positive

AO - Goes negative

NAO - Goes negative (could it really happen after 6 months positive?)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Now only if we got that to hold Dec -March . 

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7 hours ago, Suncat said:

How does winter 1995-1996 sound as an analog? This past summer has seemed to follow a pattern similar to the summer of 1995. But, again, it could be the early morning and lack of caffeine talking...

 

I remember 95 summer having much more intense heat. There was a major heat wave in the Midwest that year, with Chicago having a bad one. I think there were higher heights with waves that year than this and it was a much more active tropical season, multiple major canes. Tropical storm Jerry set records in the upstate for rainfall, over 12 inches in 24 hours in late August at GSP. I remember having an early dismissal from school in early Nov from sleet, kinda early for that kind of thing in the upstate. Overall, 95-96 was my probably the best wall to wall cold in the upstate in my lifetime, and my favorite winter.

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21 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. 

Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right?

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40 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right?  

Robert was one of the best posters on here for years and developed a reputation that allows him to charge for his forecasting.  I've seen him have far more great calls than busts over the years. 

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33 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Robert was one of the best posters on here for years and developed a reputation that allows him to charge for his forecasting.  I've seen him have far more great calls than busts over the years. 

Exactly my thoughts. There are plenty of guys that someone could go after but Robert isn't of them. 

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

 Here is my first winter forecast for the Piedmont.

60 days of bitching

30 days of model excitement

Less than 24 hours total with snow actually falling. A snowfall rate of 1" per six hours if it is steady, which it will not be.

 

Minimum 64 “ rates will overcome “ comments, per winter month! (D,J,F)

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2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right?

Whoa, wait a minute. Robert is a legend on this board and many of us still value his thoughts. I take offence to anyone who puts him down. If you knew his story, you would never have said those ugly words.

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51 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Whoa, wait a minute. Robert is a legend on this board and many of us still value his thoughts. I take offence to anyone who puts him down. If you knew his story, you would never have said those ugly words.

I didn't say he wasn't good. Long range weather forecasting is nowhere close to being accurate and to hype it to get paying subscribers who don't know better is not right.  

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