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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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1 hour ago, NattyBo said:

Hi all, from the DC area...trying to figure out how badly all this rain is going to impact my only vacation of the year, in Emerald Isle. I'm already figuring the weekend to be a total washout.  Any hope for the week? 

 

Sorry for the IMBY-ish type question.

I wouldn't say it will be a total washout.  There will certainly be some times of sun, especially in the mornings next week before the heating of the day really gets cranking and storms get going.  PWATs will be 2+ inches due fetch out of the tropics most of next week so when it does rain, places will get a good soaking for sure! Enjoy vacation! 

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On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 9:49 PM, yotaman said:

And what exactly does that mean to the layman?

The sunspot level(spotless days)and solar flux have no correlation with climate or the weather if you look at data.Where people are uninformed is you have to look at the solar wind level,EEP levels(energetic electron precipitation)where you are in the 11 year solar cycle(ascending,descending,max,min)and the QBO level.

Basically a Solar/QBO signal,this has been researched and been somewhat accurate in my opinion.There's also ENSO that can influence the climate too

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21 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The sunspot level(spotless days)and solar flux have no correlation with climate or the weather if you look at data.Where people are uninformed is you have to look at the solar wind level,EEP levels(energetic electron precipitation)where you are in the 11 year solar cycle(ascending,descending,max,min)and the QBO level.

Basically a Solar/QBO signal,this has been researched and been somewhat accurate in my opinion.There's also ENSO that can influence the climate too

So, if we wanted the best combo for a cold and snowy winter, what would it look like [ex: solar wind below X, EEP levels at Y, Z years into the Solar Cycle (ascending? descending? max? min?), and + or - QBO (and is the QBO rising or falling?) + what ENSO configuration]?

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44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So, if we wanted the best combo for a cold and snowy winter, what would it look like [ex: solar wind below X, EEP levels at Y, Z years into the Solar Cycle (ascending? descending? max? min?), and + or - QBO (and is the QBO rising or falling?) + what ENSO configuration]?

Just looking at 09-10 and 10-11 winters,my best guess is you want the solar wind averaging less than 400 and EEP 5 and lower.Them 2 winters were very low in these categories.Also you want to be in solar min or the ascending phase for less solar wind and EEP.The other phases produce more coronal holes and them make a lot more solar wind and EEP.Declining phase is the worst,solar max has a weak signal.

Obviously you want the QBO negative,gotta have that.It's quite negative now but these things flip every 12-18 months sometimes shorter so just have to observe.

Still learning and observing myself.

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2 hours ago, lj0109 said:

I wouldn't say it will be a total washout.  There will certainly be some times of sun, especially in the mornings next week before the heating of the day really gets cranking and storms get going.  PWATs will be 2+ inches due fetch out of the tropics most of next week so when it does rain, places will get a good soaking for sure! Enjoy vacation! 

Thanks!

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6 hours ago, NattyBo said:

Hi all, from the DC area...trying to figure out how badly all this rain is going to impact my only vacation of the year, in Emerald Isle. I'm already figuring the weekend to be a total washout.  Any hope for the week? 

 

Sorry for the IMBY-ish type question.

The upside is you might get a chance to see a waterspout or two.....I kinda like stormy beach weather.....with onshore flows its really hit and miss but it will be mostly cloudy and you really need to be careful if you go in the water, rip currents have killed quite a few people this summer again. 

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32 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The GFS continues to pound NC and the SE in general with rain the next few weeks.....6"+ for most of NC on almost every run for the last 7-10 runs,

gfs_apcpn_seus_52.thumb.png.572027e62cc17d8a409a286b532000ff.png

That would be wonderful for areas in a drought (..like me). Also this will limit the heat. We've reached our highest average temperatures for the year. A rainy period now will keep us below the averages. **we're now heading (slowly) downwards on average temps.  

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I still think the rain totals on the models for this week are overdone here. I know in winter everyone says cut the precip totals in half compared to what the models show. We just don't get widespread rain events here in summer. The rain mostly comes from storms and showers that are very scattered and isolated. 

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2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

I still think the rain totals on the models for this week are overdone here. I know in winter everyone says cut the precip totals in half compared to what the models show. We just don't get widespread rain events here in summer. The rain mostly comes from storms and showers that are very scattered and isolated. 

Those totals are still possible, but as you stated it's from storms; in which there will be varying amounts of winners and losers. The NAM seems to show this better than the GFS. BUT the NAM cannot know exactly where these storms develop. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018072312&fh=84    **then switch to GFS

 

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NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago

 
 

Another wet pattern is shaping up over the next week across central #NCwx. With daily chances for showers/storms, rainfall accumulation amounts will likely average 2 - 4" over the next 7 days, with higher amounts likely closer to the #SCwx state boundary. http://www.weather.gov/rah DjIEm-gX0AcsTnf.jpg

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So ,, Monsoon Season thus continues?

 Synopsis...
a front will remain west of the area through the weekend into early
next week. As a result, humid and unstable conditions will continue
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The coverage of
storms will likely increase the first part of next week as upper
level impulses move across the area.

  Flow through much of the column is from the
SW, which is keeping pwats over 2 inches, highest near the coast,
which combined with latest rap analyzed MLCAPE of 2500-3000 j/kg has
allowed scattered tstms to develop across the area well into next week.

Welcome to the SouthEastern States Rainy Season

 

 

 
 

maxresdefault.jpg

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11 hours ago, Solak said:

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 1h1 hour ago

The @NWSWPC is forecasting a general average of 2 to 3 inches of rain across central NC for today through Friday night. Much greater localized amounts can be expected. #ncwxDjWJ_2ZXoAAiEfw.jpg

Been Huffin & puffin to blow some of this off the Coast up ya'lls way! ;) J/K.. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Still no 594dm death ridges for at least 10 days heights still look low.Precip chances won't go away but there will be 2-3 day breaks with lesser chances.High humidity will be the main issue with all this water in the ground.

All drought in NC and SC gone except for a very small spot SE of CLT which is hard to believe.

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I'm starting to look for any signs of a cool down in the LR models. Don't see any right now (for the SE), but this is really early; basically like looking for snow storms in mid November. 

But, there is signs of a cool down in the NW US and SW Canada. Places like Montana are usually the first to see ligament Fall cold fronts.    

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm starting to look for any signs of a cool down in the LR models. Don't see any right now (for the SE), but this is really early; basically like looking for snow storms in mid November. 

But, there is signs of a cool down in the NW US and SW Canada. Places like Montana are usually the first to see ligament Fall cold fronts.    

Unfortunately, those ligament early fall fronts, have a tendon to get stuck in the mountains, leaving us inflamed. :D

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The long range GFS runs have been showing a lot of extremes lately. Obviously that's normal but it seems even more than normal; like lower 80s one run and then 102 the next run for the same time frame. I imagine this high variability, aside from being the long range GFS, is due to the first real changes in air masses for the season. It has been pretty consistent with bringing those colder dryer numbers to the NW (even some readings in the 20s), but it is struggling mightily with how far east and south it gets. That will be the case for awhile yet, but summer's days are numbered! 

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