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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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15 hours ago, No snow for you said:

I got a new 3 ton unit for 2600 bc I paid cash. Remember there is a list price and a hundred dollar bill price 

Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?!

2 hours ago, jpbart said:

I had my A/C go out, it was the starting capacitor and not too expensive to fix.  Good luck getting your looked at. 

I highly recommend getting on a maintance contract with an installer.  Mine come out 2X a year to check, clean and lubricate various parts. Also with a 1993 system you going have to start thinking about a new system.  That’s a whole other can of worms.  Good luck. 

We have a contract with a home warranty service.  That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid.

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44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?!

We have a contract with a home warranty service.  That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid.

I agree, I wonder if we have any HVAC installers on this list who have advice for selecting brands, seer ratings etc.   

oh yeah, back to weather.   Damn it’s hot!  Desperately painting my shed before next week rain.  Damn it’s hot. 

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2 hours ago, jpbart said:

I agree, I wonder if we have any HVAC installers on this list who have advice for selecting brands, seer ratings etc.   

oh yeah, back to weather.   Damn it’s hot!  Desperately painting my shed before next week rain.  Damn it’s hot. 

The upcoming pattern looks really interesting.  Lots of rain and storm chances, with even a tropical and flooding threat.  My favorite time of the year is fall and into winter, but there are things to love about the weather in every season.  I’m with you on the heat, though.  I don’t enjoy that very much.  Hope you get that shed painted!

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GSP: Afternoon AFD

The concern through the period will be, of course, the amount of 
moisture across the area. PWs will flirt with and at times exceed 
record levels off and on through the period as surges of moisture 
spread overhead. With the tropical airmass, lapse rates will not be 
impressive even with the high moisture content and lower LCLs until 
later in the period, and some low-level shear may enter the mix 
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Any thunderstorms will of course 
just enhance convective rainfall rates. 12z GFS is giving storm 
total QPF (including the near/short term periods) through Monday 12z 
of 5-6", mostly along the I-85 corridor in GA/SC and then up the 
escarpment into NC. 00z ECMWF brings a max of over 8" through the 
same time period, concentrated in the upslope areas of the SW 
mountains, with widespread 3-4" elsewhere. Hopefully this will be 
just a good soaking rain, with decent amounts each day but not an 
overwhelming amount in any one 6-hr period, but as the totals 
continue to pile up from the short term and into the extended, we 
will have to monitor this closely.
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8 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?!

We have a contract with a home warranty service.  That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid.

You will have to replace the inside heat exchanger too. There has been a change in refrigerant that makes it mandatory. $$$$

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10 hours ago, jburns said:

You will have to replace the inside heat exchanger too. There has been a change in refrigerant that makes it mandatory. $$$$

Jburns is correct here, it's the whole system that needs replacing.  In one way it's a good thing, newer systems are more efficient and work better.  Toss in a smart thermostat and you can recoup you up front cost over time.   If you get this fixed I suggest you get some estimates for new systems while this one is still going.  Then you can weigh what to do, what SEER rating you want to pay for etc.   Shed is painted, well mostly, ran out of paint.  So after the rain I have to do the touch up and finish the trim.  97+ degrees and painting a shed was hell.

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Regarding the GFS fantasy hurricanes, I still doubt it. This week we have a possible hybrid, more likely an upper low, coming in. If the 850 winds can gin up it might be interesting midweek. SPC does not mention it; after all, it does not exist yet.

GFS 11-15 day fantasy continues. Again, I doubt a hurricane or even tropical storm. However, ECMWF and its parallel/beta both show a tropical wave in the western Caribbean day 10. Frankly day 10 is a joke on all models, but they do agree. I infer only a tropical wave or surface low (depression) at the most. If it approaches, I will hope for nothing strong. Just enough for elevated 850 winds. When the May weather pattern creates desperation...

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  • 2 weeks later...

Eric Webb @webberweather May 22

 
 

After a possible brief hiatus from rain/storms late this week, a firehose of very deep, rich tropical moisture on the east side of #90L will be aimed at the SE US coast & Carolinas in time for Memorial Day and could remain entrenched thru the rest of May. Time to get a boat #ncwx

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4 hours ago, Tarheel17 said:

The most miserable May weather-wise I have ever experienced. No change in sight for this pattern either.

I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! 

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! 

Feast or famine around here! Or just famine, with regards to snow!

We probably won’t see a drop of rain July-September! :(

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! 

If you buy the GFS, it gets much worse from here on out once Alberto's out of the way. 

(granted, you guys in NC may get a more extended reprieve next weekend before the furnace really kicks in).

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5 hours ago, Powerball said:

If you buy the GFS, it gets much worse from here on out once Alberto's out of the way. 

(granted, you guys in NC may get a more extended reprieve next weekend before the furnace really kicks in).

The GFS seems to sniff out trends pretty well in the summer but it always overdoes the heat. Been showing the mega heat in Texas awhile now, but keeps backing off the bleeding east. The past two runs show less heat making it east, especially the 0z, but definitely seems to keep the wet cloudy pattern going.

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36 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

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shouldn't all this rain temper daytime heating this summer? (very moist soil) I've rec'd LOTS of rain in the past several weeks...

No, it would just make it worse. With all this water evaporating that will drive up dew points, humidity, heat index, and potentially fire off some pretty severe afternoon/evening thunderstorms... We are in for a long, hot, muggy Indian summer here in the southeast and I can't wait for winter to fire back up.

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25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Is this the return of the Big Wet?

The long range models have been wavering on how much cool/dry air makes it down to our location. Some runs have shown dew points in the 40s for a couple days whereas others have it barely getting into the 50s for one day. It would be wonderful to get a few cool/dry days in June.

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The long range models have been wavering on how much cool/dry air makes it down to our location. Some runs have shown dew points in the 40s for a couple days whereas others have it barely getting into the 50s for one day. It would be wonderful to get a few cool/dry days in June.

Amen

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