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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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KILM...

Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
as of 400 am Sunday...the time frame extending from the start
of this period, 6am Mon, through Tuesday daylight morning, the
local forecast area will see nearly a continuous shield of light to
moderate stratiform type rains. Embedded in this shield of
rainfall, will be a few thunderstorms. For the most part, the
tstorm activity will occur over the Atlantic waters and given
the trajectory of the swath of pcpn moving onshore, the coastal
counties will be the 1st in line to experience a few of these
storms. As the pcpn moves further inland, the lack of
instability will keep tstorms from further developing or in this
case, from progressing too far inland before it's demise.

Models indicate an expansive area of strong uvvs across the forecast area
and surroundings for a good 24 to 36 hrs. This a result of
synoptic difluence aloft due to the positioning of the upper
closed low as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley Monday
morning, to eastern Tennessee late Tue night before finally
opening up to a S/W trof by Wed. Model soundings indicate 50+
kt east to southeast winds pumping in low level Atlantic
moisture across the Carolinas. Gulf of Mexico moisture will have
already been and continue to be tapped but by this time the main
source will be Atlantic moisture.

Forecast rainfall amounts during this 2 day period will range
from 2 to 4 inches. Isolated higher amounts are possible mainly
along the immediate coast due to the onshore movement of any
convection before dying out as it pushes further inland into a
more stable atm in the low levels. This modest rainfall amounts
over a 2 day period will be extremely beneficial to farmers and
local growers. Crops, plants, trees and etc, will literally act
like sponges and absorb this water. And given the 2 day period
of these rains, we do not expect high runoff problems.
 

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We got 2.10” of rain last night at my house, giving me hope for a positive change in the weather pattern (more rain shower chances). The WXSouth Facebook post this morning dashed my hope. 

“Well there's major changes to the forecast since the last update. Models made a massive switch aloft in the flow pattern, and now instead of having a deep penetrating front come through next weekend, with widespread showers, instead a HEAT WAVE is on the way. The European  and GFS both leave that western trough in tact well out west, and that allows a Southeast ridge to build in starting Thursday and it grows this weekend and through much of next week. A ridge in this location with this kind of strength simply means HEAT and HUMIDITY.  Get your AC's ready.  Full breakdown of daily details is at my premium blog.
The Euro and GFS has 90s prety widespread in GA and the Carolinas (as well as west Texas) then merges the heat dome to encompass the entire Southern US by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week, and they show impressive numbers for middle of May.
This will be a first time I can recall having so many lilies still not open yet, and plenty of Irises, and Azaleas and a few other perennials in bloom while there are this many consecutive days in the 90's.  I for one am not ready for this kind of heat, but then again, we seem to go from Winter to Summer a lot more now. The delayed Spring was nice while it lasted.”
Image valid Sunday , map from PivotalWeather.

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Next 4 days gonna be torture, GSP showing 90 each day, with 94 on Sunday for Greenville proper. That would be close to a record, and the high for all of last summer was only 96 I think. At least after that it goes back to normal, but not liking the above normal May and start to the hot season. Can't help but wonder if the mid 90s forecast are bit too high.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Next 4 days gonna be torture, GSP showing 90 each day, with 94 on Sunday for Greenville proper. That would be close to a record, and the high for all of last summer was only 96 I think. At least after that it goes back to normal, but not liking the above normal May and start to the hot season. Can't help but wonder if the mid 90s forecast are bit too high.

The GFS is almost always warmer than all the other models in the summer sometimes ridiculously so....the NAMS keep temps in the 90-92 range with DP's in the low to mid  60's so while this weekend will be warm it wont be that bad when compared to mid summer when our actual average highs are 90-92 and DP hang out in the 70's. Still I wouldnt be surprised to see a few 92-94's in the typically warmer spots this weekend. 

The models all have a weak "low" forming in the eastern GOM and have that drift up over the SE mid next week leading to a extended period of shower/stormy weather and higher DP's, I would rather have 90-92 with DP's in the low 60's versus the 85-88 and DP's in the mid 70's we will have mid to late next week. 

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This looks fairly damp.  Don’t show Shetley.

My AC went out last night.  Blowing mild air.  Ug.  Always waits till it gets super hot and always does it on a Friday night so we can wait maximum time until someone can come out.  Won’t be until Monday before we even get it scheduled.  Awesome.

D8CA8D13-E7C2-4C2E-9B4E-ABE2A801B6EC.thumb.png.d3b54309f0609219eea9fce9efa60fb9.png

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

This looks fairly damp.  Don’t show Shetley.

My AC went out last night.  Blowing mild air.  Ug.  Always waits till it gets super hot and always does it on a Friday night so we can wait maximum time until someone can come out.  Won’t be until Monday before we even get it scheduled.  Awesome.

D8CA8D13-E7C2-4C2E-9B4E-ABE2A801B6EC.thumb.png.d3b54309f0609219eea9fce9efa60fb9.png

Rains good. I always worry this time of year about possible drought development.

Buy yourself a window unit. Even after you get the central air fixed, it's good to have a backup. 

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Rains good. I always worry this time of year about possible drought development.

Buy yourself a window unit. Even after you get the central air fixed, it's good to have a backup. 

Yep that’s not a bad idea.  We have a 1993 unit, so we’re lucky if it works at all, guess.

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I had my A/C go out, it was the starting capacitor and not too expensive to fix.  Good luck getting your looked at. 

I highly recommend getting on a maintance contract with an installer.  Mine come out 2X a year to check, clean and lubricate various parts. Also with a 1993 system you going have to start thinking about a new system.  That’s a whole other can of worms.  Good luck. 

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