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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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There is a pretty good signal of negative North Atlantic Tripole right now. Historically, the Spring is a great time to correlate Atlantic SSTs with hurricane season activity. 1969,1995, 1998, 2005, 2010 were the highest +NTA Spring's and the average #storms for these years is about 20. El Nino also looks like a sure things, so I'd go over/under on number named storms 12. 

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This "False Spring" is something ehh?

At least I'm keeping the Electric bill to almost Nil...

Sea surface Temp is stuck at 60...  Mucho delaying the "spring" fish run down here..

Were Usually catching Spanish Mackerel by now... Or Sea Mullet..

No signs of either Species of Fish... except waaaaay down south, like in Florida.. 

Not supposed to get above 70 all this week here on the Beach's 

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NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 19m19 minutes ago

 
 

Heavy rain is expected next week across the Carolinas. With rivers running high from prior rainfall, a few locations could see some minor river flooding. This is not expected to be a widespread flooding event but soggy conditions will prevail through much of next week. #ncwxDbPS-FEXUAApU7O.jpg

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50 minutes ago, SENC said:

This "False Spring" is something ehh?

At least I'm keeping the Electric bill to almost Nil...

Sea surface Temp is stuck at 60...  Mucho delaying the "spring" fish run down here..

Were Usually catching Spanish Mackerel by now... Or Sea Mullet..

No signs of either Species of Fish... except waaaaay down south, like in Florida.. 

Not supposed to get above 70 all this week here on the Beach's 

It is remarkable and looking at the long range the pattern seems to show no sign of changing.  Since it looks like it is going to hold until next winter; we should be in for some epic snow.

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11 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I have always wanted to witness a year without a summer. However, sorry to say, we can't avoid the inevitable heat that's coming.  

I recall a summer about 5 years ago ('13 or '14) where it rained nearly every day/every other day/was always cloudy - only had a few weeks of intense heat/humidity - I vividly remember this summer as my kids had nearly all outdoor swimming events delayed/canceled

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4 hours ago, drfranklin said:

I recall a summer about 5 years ago ('13 or '14) where it rained nearly every day/every other day/was always cloudy - only had a few weeks of intense heat/humidity - I vividly remember this summer as my kids had nearly all outdoor swimming events delayed/canceled

It may have been summer of ‘’12?

we had tons of rain that summer!

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50 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro is still putting heaviest rain on I-77 and west,hour 84 below..GFS is still more widespread across NC/SC.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018042112_84_480_220.png

Wow you can easily identify the eastern escarpment there. Got over 4 inches out of last system, look to get at least that much this go around. 

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SUMMARY...A marginal tornado/wind damage threat is expected across
   parts of southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and far
   southwestern Georgia this afternoon. The threats are not currently
   expected to be great enough to warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1010 mb low across
   southern Mississippi with backed southeast flow across much of
   southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
   Surface dewpoints in these areas are in the mid to upper 60s F and
   the RAP is estimating SBCAPE values in the 750 to 1500 J/kg range.
   In addition, the Fort Rucker, Alabama WSR-88D VWP shows a curved
   hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This
   suggests that the stronger discrete cells will rotate and could have
   a marginal tornado and/or wind damage threat. In spite of this, a
   large area of cloudiness and rainfall is present from the Florida
   Panhandle northward across much of Alabama. This should limit any
   further destabilization and should keep any severe threat marginal
   this afternoon. Nevertheless, we will continue to closely monitor
   the situation.

 

mcd0282.gif

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