snowlover91 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, Poimen said: But that's only through Saturday evening. The GFS was showing the brunt of the snow in NC overnight and into Sunday. When looking at soundings and 850/925mb maps, the 06z GFS was much colder vs the NAM. This could very well be a CAD situation and trend colder, but the upper levels are pretty toasty on the NAM. Hour 84 it has most of NC above 0C at 850 except NC/VA border while the GFS has most of the state at or below 0C for the same time. Here is the comparison. I think the key will be the HP up over the NE, the GFS is showing a 1040-1045HP nosing down which if it verified might be enough. 06z GFS hour 90 12z NAM hour 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 ^ Yep, good post. Still a lot to be ironed out. I'm pretty skeptical, given the unusual trajectory of the clipper as well as the lateness of the season. I worry about the amount of precip generated by a clipper, particularly down this way. But it is pretty stout, although it is taking a fairly anomalous track. Regarding the cold air, we'll be marginal, but the high up north is very strong, especially for this time of year. Also, as Webber pointed out on the other board, the surface flow will be moving over a fresh snow pack, at least to some extent, so that should help. If the high is really up there in that location, and if it's that strong, I expect better cold air response depicted as we move in, as has already been stated. But I do wonder, given the wedge, if we'll see some sloppy reforming-type Miller B-ish system that will inject a warm layer in there some where and dry slot us. And even if that doesn't happen, I wonder how much precip will be generated over here by a clipper. But regardless, it's another event to track. Nice winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 45 minutes ago, CentralNC said: right off hand I would have to look at 1960. Yep, 1960 was a pretty big March for snow, as were 1927 (including Raleigh's greatest snowstorm until January 25, 2000), 1969, and 1980. This is a great search tool for North Carolina climate extremes, including 1-day snowfall: https://climate.ncsu.edu/nc_extremes You can search by month or even by day, and see the top 5 events for the specified month/day at your chosen location. Very useful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 12z ICON off to a good start... Hammers central NC and Mts Saturday night/ Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z ICON off to a good start... Hammers central NC and Mts Saturday night/ Sun morning. Sure does. The GFS was slightly north with transition line, but it did have slightly colder surface temps (compared from 6z to 12z). Here's the ICON: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If the SREF currently goes out to 0Z on the 25th. With DST now in place, does that translate over to 8pm Saturday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: If the SREF currently goes out to 0Z on the 25th. With DST now in place, does that translate over to 8pm Saturday evening? 0z = 8pm EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18z NAM is a little south of the 12z location. Basically gets the snow/rain line to the Triangle. Hopefully it keeps shifting slightly southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z NAM is a little south of the 12z location. Basically gets the snow/rain line to the Triangle. Hopefully it keeps shifting slightly southward. Yepp, you beat me to it. Looks like maybe it's getting a better handle on the CAD set up that the EURO and the GFS have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 How does the euro look for the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: How does the euro look for the weekend storm? Good for those right along the NC/VA border, the rest not so much....but inline more or less with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18z ICON Hammers southern va/northern nc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hey downeast, could you slide that Euro map over to the Tennessee border so I can see Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Hey downeast, could you slide that Euro map over to the Tennessee border so I can see Asheville. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/snow-depth-in/20180322-0000z.html here ya go the zoom is kind of wonky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, downeastnc said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/snow-depth-in/20180322-0000z.html here ya go the zoom is kind of wonky Perfect!!!! Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18z GFS is a little colder for the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: 18z GFS is a little colder for the weekend event. Yeah the clown map is silly ( for late March at least) ....but probably a bit more realistic compared to the last 2 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yeah the clown map is silly ( for late March at least) ....but probably a bit more realistic compared to the last 2 runs... What I’d do to have those foot plus totals slide on down into NW NC mtns. Haven’t had a single storm produce more than 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Robert is chirping about this one on Facebook, think this could be more impressive than last storm. Temperature gradient will be pretty wild. 70s in SC and low 30s at NC/VA border. Could lead to heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18z GEFS Mean... wow what a tight gradient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That's an unusual track for a large snow storm in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Too warm I think. Mostly rain or snow that melts on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Too warm I think. Mostly rain or snow that melts on contact. Yep, still neat to be sniffing the fumes that close. Can't manage that some Januaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 50 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Too warm I think. Mostly rain or snow that melts on contact. We get it! It’s always too warm to snow, it’s trending North, it never snows in RAH, it wasn’t going to snow last week, it wasn’t going to snow today, oops nailed the last 2! X,Y,Z model, shows less snow for RAH and everybody! It’s the same damn post in various forms, over and over, day in and day out! Ugggh 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 57 minutes ago, JacobNC said: That's an unusual track for a large snow storm in this part of the country. So was the storm that gave a lot of people 4-6” in a lot of spots on Jan 17th, Roxboro got 8-10”. It’s been an unusual winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Too warm I think. Mostly rain or snow that melts on contact. Not likely. Soundings show RDU dropping to 32F during the bulk of the heavy precip. That’s plenty cold enough to stick especially with the heavy rates being advertised by the models. Ratios will be on the order of 5:1 since it will be a wet snow, but 3-5” is certainly possible in the jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Not likely. Soundings show RDU dropping to 32F during the bulk of the heavy precip. That’s plenty cold enough to stick especially with the heavy rates being advertised by the models. Ratios will be on the order of 5:1 since it will be a wet snow, but 3-5” is certainly possible in the jackpot areas. The track is odd we need it to go another 100 miles SW to really lock in snow for many of us, that said the 1045 high to the north is big time and it actually moves SW from far eastern Canada almost Maine. If its any further SE than progged that would be a good thing....add the fresh snow pack to the NE and it just might be enough to get a general 1-3" hit along and NE of the track of the low.....as it stands now the GFS is a good hit anytime of the year for many of us much less late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Never got a chance to report on last nights storm. Ended up with 8” in ROA. Very impressed with last nights and even more impressed for this weekends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Hp in Canada on the 00z NAM is just a smidge stronger at 42 hours. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Still a tiny bit stronger at 51 hours and you can see the wedge starting to set up. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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