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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Yeah, *IF* we got a system like that, I think you could cut those clown map totals down to 25%..   1/2" realistically would accumulate on grassy surfaces in Wake..   Air temp, soil temps...  Mike Moss on WRAL was mentioning it yesterday, which is very early for WRAL, but even he said that soil temps were a big issue.  

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

6z GEFS much improved compared to the 0z GEFS.

GEFS trend loop.  Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed.  Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west.  TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south.  Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

9as7l65.gif

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

GEFS trend loop.  Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed.  Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west.  TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south.  Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

 

You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots

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12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run.  Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run.  If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business.  I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out.  I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time.  Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out.

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55 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run.  Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run.  If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business.  I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out.  I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time.  Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out.

Yeah, it's not a good track for RDU and points SE. Starts out good over extreme southern Alabama but then makes a beeline for Wilmington. Needs to track about 75 - 100 miles further SE. Not much cold or dry air to work with either.

Edit: I smell a 35 degree driving cold rain with this one outside of the mountains and Northern NC into VA.

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