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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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53 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks.  But there's always March 1960!

Yup, my previous optimism hasn't paid off, the ridge axis set up too far west for anything meaningful. Guess I was wrong lol. Cranky has been mentioning Feb 18-22 as a possible window for a coastal, I'm assuming the reasoning behind that is that the stormy pattern will be departing then. And the BSR supports. 

Some changes are happening in the strat too as I see a lot of knowledgeable mets think that the PV split is possible or even likely. The stratosphere will save us, let's get a March 2-3, 1980 redux!

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't have easy access to historical records right now.  What exactly happened in March 1960?

Snow on the ground and very cold for the entire month in the upstate of SC, 3 separate big events each spaced about a week apart. My great grandmother told me they had to walk through snow to get to Easter service?!?

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No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split,  favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors.  Anyway, get ready :) :snowman:

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

No one will give a crap until the model snow maps are loaded with snow, but reading thru the tea leaves, Anthony M (HM) seems to like the idea of some heavy blocking setting up in the last third of Feb due to a big stratospheric PV split,  favorable MJO, and poleward propagating -AAM. You know, all the unicorn factors.  Anyway, get ready :) :snowman:

I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. 

I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. 

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39 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I'm diehard Carolina. Always have been always will be. I can and have pulled for state but never Duke. 

I always enjoy reading your perspective on the weather. You know what your talking about. 

I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

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I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha
Is HM Henry Margusity?
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13 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
1 hour ago, griteater said:
I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

Is HM Henry Margusity?

Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM".  He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks.  Beyond that, who knows.  But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring.

I haven't seen a warm spring in a few years. I'll welcome it if it comes. La nina springs are usually cold

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2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Right now, the pattern looks horrid for snow for most of us for the next two weeks.  Beyond that, who knows.  But climo is waiting just beyond the horizon, though...just waiting to crush your very last snowy hope and drag you down into the depths of a warm and snowless spring.

This is Phil Conners signing off from Punxsutawney  PA.

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Pretty much on schedule to me,MJO showing the stall/loop de loop like I thought in p7.Did it 3 prior times counting 09-10 and last December.Looks like it's gong to take 10 days until it finally gets a kick in the pants to move though so we'll see.

The 09-10 produced snow here Mar 2nd but realistically we have to about Mar 10th to get a hit.Not impossible after that but it gets difficult.

Carry on.

 

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

One thing looks certain.. the drought conditions many piedmont areas have been experiencing are about to be gone. Within the next 7 to 8 days 2 to 5 inches of rain looks likely for much of the SE

qpf_acc.conus (1).png

Of course, and no cold in sight. This area is absolutely maddening for a winter weather lover!!! I'm still hopeful we can work something out last week of Feb, first week of Mar.

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