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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Tonight's Euro Weeklies look a little better than the last run for Feb.  They hold western ridging from roughly Feb 10 to the end of Feb in an ideal location right up the W North America coastline and up through E Alaska with some cross polar flow out of NE Siberia (this matches well with the projected MJO progression)....with cool temp anomalies in the eastern U.S. down thru Florida.  They begin to go above normal with temps in early March.

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0z Cmc is a nice hit Monday in NC. Gfs is close. Difference is GFS has lp inland and cmc offshore which gives northern and western NC a colder profile. More is on the heels of Monday so plenty of shots coming up. Right now it's Monday event that is track worthy imo. Canadian has been pretty consistent with it and gfs to a degree.

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11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

0z Cmc is a nice hit Monday in NC. Gfs is close. Difference is GFS has lp inland and cmc offshore which gives northern and western NC a colder profile. More is on the heels of Monday so plenty of shots coming up. Right now it's Monday event that is track worthy imo. Canadian has been pretty consistent with it and gfs to a degree.

In addition to the relative model agreement, which I'm sure will be all over the place between now and then, it's optimistic to see both GSP and RAH have at least some  mention of frozen precip. in the mid-range forecast (i.e. Thursday-Friday and Sunday/Monday). 

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6z GFS continues to show the threat for next Monday.

 

RAH keeping an eye on this:

Saturday through Monday: With high pressure building in, expect
quieter and cooler conditions to stick around on Saturday ahead of a
much more complex weather pattern set to begin as early as Sunday
morning. While model guidance varies widely at this point, the
overall pattern seems to indicate that a period of wintry weather
will be possible Sunday into Monday. Based on current 00z model
guidance, it seems that the best period for frozen precipitation may
actually be a bit delayed, arriving with a rather robust burst of
cold air on Monday, however, with a cold airmass in place and timing
of the initial moisture surge expected during the overnight hours
Sunday, a mix of light rain/snow isn`t out of the question as early
as Sunday morning. Still plenty of changes likely to occur with this
this challenging setup, so stay tuned over the next several days as
the forecast begins to clear up a bit.

 

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4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Now we're talking...Siberia opens up into the central and eastern US per the below on the latest GEFS.  With moisture too....  Hopefully all the guidance comes around to this.  GEPS is not there...haven't seen the EPS. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_56.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_56.png

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_52.png

EPS is not even close to this look, with regards to the cold! It's aloe warmer, but people are saying GEFS did better with last severe cold shot!

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

La Ninas almost never feature long tracked storms. The next one we deal with is going to show up within 6 days, IMO.

the last one really seemed to pop out of nowhere, maybe 5 day lead time? The early December hit for GA seemed quick too.  I think in a week or so, there's going to be a lot of tracking going on.  

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Day 6/7 ish has a good look to me for a snow or mix to ice and/or rain. Pattern would support it (PNA ridge is back, troughiness over the NW atlantic, good shot of cold air this coming weekend and a string of HP's over the northern tier. Need to see some consistency in modeling over the next few days before getting too confident. Would say interior sections would fair best in this setup from a changeover perspective ( will likely be a GOM SLP up the coastline). Will go more into over the next few days if the pattern look holds. Woke up to some slush on the car tops and white rooftops here in NW Raleigh. The thaw is over folks.

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EPS is not even close to this look, with regards to the cold! It's aloe warmer, but people are saying GEFS did better with last severe cold shot!

Mack, your buddy says the Euro has done horrible this winter in his opinion. He’s going with the GFS on the cold. Said the Euro just has not seen the cold this winter!! I know you talking about the EPS though. He said weeklies have not done good so far either? IDK


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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

GEFS had a strong storm signal for next week. The control and a couple of panels are some huge hits for here.

And I like how things are evolving and changing inside 7 days. That's how the last storm worked out, too.

Yeah Brick but that last storm had different dynamics in play I believe than this upcoming 'event'

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8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:


Mack, your buddy says the Euro has done horrible this winter in his opinion. He’s going with the GFS on the cold. Said the Euro just has not seen the cold this winter!! I know you talking about the EPS though. He said weeklies have not done good so far either? IDK


.

Which one JB or Webber or Brick or Wilkes?? :)

The Sun/Mon storm probably is just a Rainer . Per 6z GFS , but seems like some more chances to come!

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