Brick Tamland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: A little more than that for the storm total. ****below includes ice, but still would be a significant storm as modeled. Didn't realize that, just saw the snowfall map. That would be a good storm. Covers the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Latest from RAH for tonight: PoP has also been increased into the chance range for rain/snow showers for tonight, given the expected development of a band ofscattered to numerous showers along the Arctic front. Measurable liquid equivalent amounts are expected to remain very light, however, with a few hundredths of an inch or less anticipated. Any resultant snow amounts would be even lighter - perhaps a scattered coating on car tops, etc, across the nrn Piedmont, where precipitation intensity and likelihood of snow will be greatest, for an hour in any given location. Winds will also increase with the frontal passage, with following CAA/mixing and surface gusts between 25-30 mph. *****I'll take a light dusting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 It looks like the cold gets there too late for the W piedmont, while the storm's in the gulf...then the cold works it's way in by the time it becomes a coastal in the Atlantic cashing in ENC. Meaningless I guess right now...but I'll be looking at temps for that one next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 So how does the euro op run look in this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 41 minutes ago, CaryWx said: So how does the euro op run look in this range? Does not support the wintery look of the GFS (at least out to day 10): http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Thanks. That's what I figured at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS is the new king, euro will come around and the mega cold doesn't even get close to us until like day 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro played catch up with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Does not support the wintery look of the GFS (at least out to day 10): http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Didn't want to be the parade killer but that rain on the Euro's not all that cold. Got a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro played catch up with the last storm. Brick. No. The GFS was awful until 36 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GSP's AFD regarding this weekend....the discussion doesn't specify but I assume it includes model input from the EURO as well. Behind the front into Saturday, cool/dry high pressure will keep pops below mentionable levels through the day as the high slowly transitions eastward. Overnight into Sunday, the split flow regime becomes increasingly active as a potent clipper works through the southern Great lakes region, and warmer/moist air advects northward out of the Gulf/Atl across the southeast. With that, a digging shortwave is progged to move through the mean trof out of the plains and into the Midsouth region leading to surface cyclogenesis which will work to enhance moisture advection further. Meanwhile, the aforementioned migrating surface ridge will have setup over the western Atl leading to the possibility of a brief CAD window. This entire complex shifts east through the fcst area Sunday night into Monday, while guidance progs another fast moving clipper wave surging in behind Monday afternoon, although it should be noted that this second wave has trended drier. All said, uncertainty is high at this range as the eventual impacts of this system will be highly dependent on timing of both the upper features for forcing and moisture advection, as well as any CAD regime that may or may not develop to modify the profiles in the low levels. Thus, for now will just broadly highlight rain/snow for wx with temperatures holding at just below normal levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Brick. No. The GFS was awful until 36 hours before. gotta wait till we get into nam range, then the globals will all start playing catch up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 RAH Friday night through Sunday: The period from Friday night through Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures. The bigger question comes with the system moving into the region Saturday night and Sunday. There continues to be a chance for some wintry precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday morning, before temperatures rise into the mid 30s and the precipitation transitions to rain. Will need to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to speculate about impacts with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Anybody know what time the weeklies come out today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro played catch up with the last storm. The GFS couldn't find it own butthole with a roadmap and a compass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I know it's the end of the run, but the amount of potential this could have..... i don't want to post all the frames and create that way too long post, but another low follows this one. Interesting 5 days setup in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I know it's the end of the run, but the amount of potential this could have..... i don't want to post all the frames and create that way too long post, but another low follows this one. Interesting 5 days setup in that time frame.I love how the 540 line is draped east to west and just north of the NC/VA state. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Did the 18z lose the Feb 6 storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 yeah I know it's mostly ice but 850's argue this is more of a snow to IP ZR event verbatim (even for the upstate) and yes I also know it's 300+ hours out something to talk about though..relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Did the 18z lose the Feb 6 storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This argues for a stronger Damming effect on the 6th..the HP is transient and not in an ideal position though worth keeping an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Thanks Ashe. Warm, Is that NE high retreating? If so is the one over the plains not pressing in though? Bad orientation for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: 4 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro played catch up with the last storm. The GFS couldn't find it own butthole with a roadmap and a compass. How about Mapquest!? Cant deny there are a lot of storms and a lot of cold air close by over the next 10 days or so. Just have to get timing right! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How about Mapquest!? Cant deny there are a lot of storms and a lot of cold air close by over the next 10 days or so. Just have to get timing right! Is mapquest still around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, WarmNose said: This argues for a stronger Damming effect on the 6th..the HP is transient and not in an ideal position though worth keeping an eye on That's just a wierd look. Lots of high pressure for sure. I think previous runs have not had a High in the Northeast at all, so this is a good trend, and a whole hell of a lot better than just relying on the one in the plains, cause we all know about cold air getting over the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, CADEffect said: Is mapquest still around? I still use it, but I'm old! What's the GEFS say about the 5-6th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I still use it, but I'm old! What's the GEFS say about the 5-6th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Thanks. I thought there was more moisture though. Very close on temps, but I think it has been trending colder the last few runs, would think there could/should be wedging with that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Upon further investigation, the Monday Tuesday deal looks looke a trailing wave after a Sunday rain? Maybe cold air can trickle down after the first wave? Not feeling it at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Upon further investigation, the Monday Tuesday deal looks looke a trailing wave after a Sunday rain? Maybe cold air can trickle down after the first wave? Not feeling it at the moment CJ gave it the kiss of death and said "we'll keep an eye on it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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