cbmclean Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: What about 13/14 winter? We had a good February and March snow wise. How was NAO during those month February and March 2014? 13/14 had 22 out of 90 < 0. If I recall, that winter had a very friendly -EPO regime which saved us. By the way, the graphs from my last post were mislabeled, they were 15/16 and 16/17. Here is 13/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6 hours ago, cbmclean said: 13/14 had 22 out of 90 < 0. If I recall, that winter had a very friendly -EPO regime which saved us. By the way, the graphs from my last post were mislabeled, they were 15/16 and 16/17. Here is 13/14 Same as the year on -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Pattern still looking meh in the long run. Could pull a rabbit out of the hat Monday, get some cold air in, wave development after that , could work, who knows? Not that excited about Fantastic Fabulous February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Meh Call me when that gets inside 5 days, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Call me when that gets inside 5 days, thanks! I thought they did away with 900 numbers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I thought they did away with 900 numbers! We will talk pizzerts and taco pizzas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just asking, but do you think all the models are going to be blindsided with the pattern change and not catch it until it is within 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Just asking, but do you think all the models are going to be blindsided with the pattern change and not catch it until it is within 3 days? Not something as large scale as a pattern change. Potential storms are always a possibility but much less so these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, RAH_MET said: Reposting this from a couple of weeks ago, as I am still getting some good return isobars on my homebrew forecast model. Keep this bull**** to the banter thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looking at the latest on the much ballyhooed MJO, I noticed that the Euro, JMA, and CFS all move the MJO east into Phase 8 quicker than the GFS. When viewing the -VP anomaly movement associated with the MJO over the past few weeks and projecting that forward (along with forecasts), it looks to me that we are on track for the MJO to begin being in a favorable location in mid-Feb, with the -VP anomalies moving into the Eastern Pacific during that timeframe. Here are the February monthly and Week 3 & 4 temperature forecasts from the latest CFS. The monthly has continued to trend cooler in the east and warmer in the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12z CMC has some wintry precip in western NC next Sat night into Sunday, then has 2 additional weak systems that are close calls for wintry precip on the following Mon and Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 and the 12z GFS is quite wintry in NC next Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Next two weeks, I'm going to patiently wait for for that smug "smiley face" ridging in the south to evolve into a trough in the east. Right now, after our cool/cold shot this weekend that ridging just hangs on, on both the GEFS and GEPS. Don't have the EPS that far out. Just have to hug the MJO to push that west coast ridge east. Hopefully it's just the models having issues and the common sense east coast trough starts making headway into the SE between the west coast ridge and the west atlantic ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 ******* SER keeps all the good stuff to my north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Does the 12Z GFS have any support from other models for that Monday weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS bringing another wintry system after that on the following Wed...low in the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12z GFS looks great.... hopefully it will get some support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 37 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS bringing another wintry system after that on the following Wed...low in the gulf Be nice if we could get cold air to go with all these storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS also has flurries for this evening from 40 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 45 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS bringing another wintry system after that on the following Wed...low in the gulf Yep.....a couple of gulf lows with cold air in North America over the next 10 days. There are definitely some possibilities. A little blocking would do wonders. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Be nice if we could get cold air to go with all these storms that’s what is going to bite us Mack... no cold air to help us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah, the GFS was a good run. Almost looks like the last setup (at this time range) with the low forming pretty far out in the Atlantic. The question would be is how much precip could work westward. And does the low eventually form closer to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Best run of the GFS in a LONG time. Looking at 2m temps out in la la land is unwise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Yep.....a couple of gulf lows with cold air in North America over the next 10 days. There are definitely some possibilities. A little blocking would do wonders. The PNA, AO, and EPO are all going to be good. The NAO is of course our problem child. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That Sunday storm kinda reminds me of the early December event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Best run of the GFS in a LONG time. Looking at 2m temps out in la la land is unwise. I definitely know better, but man the cold air mass coming down at hour 384 is cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well, looks like the GFS wants to give me 2 inches of snow next Monday. Only 7 days out, so guess we'll see how it goes this week. Too far to the north now for me to be too excited about it. But at least we have something else to watch again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: 12z CMC has some wintry precip in western NC next Sat night into Sunday, then has 2 additional weak systems that are close calls for wintry precip on the following Mon and Wed Cmc had this at 0z last night as well. Thanks for 12z update. Man has it turned cold outside. Still think northern coastal plain can luck up with a trash can lid topper tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Well, looks like the GFS wants to give me 2 inches of snow next Monday. Only 7 days out, so guess we'll see how it goes this week. Too far to the north now for me to be too excited about it. But at least we have something else to watch again. A little more than that for the storm total. ****below includes ice, but still would be a significant storm as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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