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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009. 

Yeah just like that above normal pattern you predicted for December even though models said it would be BN and it verified BN like the models showed... all these crazy conspiracy theories of yours are just that... just saying. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah I've had over 1" of dry since last night, pattern looks wetter over all the next few weeks

Haha I was literally just about to post the same thing.  I got soaking dry in the way to church this morning!  Chuck is extremely knowledgeable, but he confuses the crap out of me sometimes.  When it’s currently raining on my head, and then I look at a 16 day model prog, and it shows 3 or 4 more precipitation events for my area, words like “dry” and “drought” really don’t come to mind.  I don’t know....it’s just a matter of perspective, I guess.

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Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while.

Hit the go button on the top left beside height   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while.

Hit the go button on the top left beside height   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

The 5th/6th storm still interesting on 18z! Bares watching! ;)

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14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while.

Hit the go button on the top left beside height   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

I would like to learn how to read it.

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Like Ron Burgundy's dog when it ate the whole wheel of cheese and pooped in the refrigerator, the NAO is going from annoying to amazing.  Crossed over from negative almost exactly on Dec 1 and has been positive every single day since (although sometimes very close to zero).  I am curious to see if we can get through a whole Met winter with not one single day negative.

 

image.png.f66b9ae1ff8c6862ec0ec1dfdd5ae8b7.png

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8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Like Ron Burgundy's dog when it ate the whole wheel of cheese and pooped in the refrigerator, the NAO is going from annoying to amazing.  Crossed over from negative almost exactly on Dec 1 and has been positive every single day since (although sometimes very close to zero).  I am curious to see if we can get through a whole Met winter with not one single day negative.

 

image.png.f66b9ae1ff8c6862ec0ec1dfdd5ae8b7.png

Yeah, easily! It only goes negative in the spring and summer! Negative NAO in winter hasn't happened in last 3-5 winters atleast

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, easily! It only goes negative in the spring and summer! Negative NAO in winter hasn't happened in last 3-5 winters atleast

Went back and looked at the data for the last two winters from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/.

To no one's surprise, +NAO dominates, but in neither case was it a shutout.  2014-2015 had 16 out of 91 days below 0, while 2015 - 2016 had 35 out of 90.  This winter we are batting 0 for 58.

Below are graphs I made of the data for both years.

 

image.png.7171292071cd9ef2a6681812010a6df3.png

 

image.png.0f6e8e86090c273d26d1a49a006dc990.png

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Went back and looked at the data for the last two winters from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/.

To no one's surprise, +NAO dominates, but in neither case was it a shutout.  2014-2015 had 16 out of 91 days below 0, while 2015 - 2016 had 35 out of 90.  This winter we are batting 0 for 58.

Below are graphs I made of the data for both years.

 

image.png.7171292071cd9ef2a6681812010a6df3.png

 

image.png.0f6e8e86090c273d26d1a49a006dc990.png

What about 13/14 winter? We had a good February and March snow wise. How was NAO during those month February and March 2014?

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