Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
 Share

Recommended Posts

Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. 

Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. 

Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore.
Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the
upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs
in the 50s.

Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be
rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend.
Highs Fri in the 50s.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CAE NWS latest output

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After maybe a few lingering light sprinkles early in the
morning Monday, drier and cooler air will once again return to
the area through Wednesday as high pressure at the surface
dominates. By Thursday the upper pattern flattens out and then
turns more southwesterly once again ahead of the next rain
maker. This next front is expected to cross the region Thursday
night and Friday. Temperatures cool through Tuesday, then
gradually warm, and return to near or above normal by Thursday.
Colder air will move in behind the front Friday night. There is
a lot of uncertainty at this point, but if enough moisture
lingers into Saturday morning, there could be some light snow to
the north. Have kept mention out of the forecast for now.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The AO (not NAO, look at your N Hemi Ens maps) in the 7-14 range should be a good representation of do we keep the PV in Central CA, or does a dominant lobe break off and exit stage right over southern Greenland.   The MJO amplitude in mid phase 5 may not put us in to the holly grail days 14+, rather a de-amplification in phase 7 vs a high push in to phase 8.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SteveVa said:

Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. 

Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. 

Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore.
Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the
upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs
in the 50s.

Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be
rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend.
Highs Fri in the 50s.

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. 

Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Wow said:

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

I remember getting a Thundersnow on that one! The flakes were SO HUGE! Ended up with 12' of snow total. Great storm, thanks to the Deformation band that formed over us!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Wow said:

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

The funny thing is, in fort mill, we ended up with most of our snow that first morning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

was this the same storm that Robert predicted chunks of ice falling from the sky and roof collapses on I85 corridor?

I've never seen so much sleet in my life - I think I received a little snow at the onset then 3-4 inches of pure sleet - great sledding!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For you hardcore model enthusiasts:

Ryan Maue | weather.usVerified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago

Finished development of ECMWF EPS ensemble precipitation type (PTYPE) + cyclone locations w/MSLP for @weathermodels_ All 51 ensembles at full grid resolution for 15 days. Preview here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps_ensembles.php 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4

Sure, 

I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Sure, 

I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

I hear ya, it IS speculation, but I just think there are times that we can have some success with forecasting the large scale pattern using educated guesses

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...