mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: Commence NW trend 384hr 88' redux FTW! LOL! Only 384 hours away! I'm all in. Pattern supports it, if there is a pattern at all? I'm excited about the frida storm, just giddy! And clipper Tuesday, SNOmg! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18z GFS really is loaded! Like 4 or 5 possible storms that could end up producing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I like the look at the end of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS really is loaded! Like 4 or 5 possible storms that could end up producing! Just looked at H5 and it looks like a weak wave entering Southern California produces this result at 384. The Webber Wave? I'll believe it when I see it. I don't think the NS will let something like that happen this winter but we'll see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Found this article on Yahoo tonight - the polar vortex is coming back in february... https://mashable.com/2018/01/25/arctic-blast-as-polar-vortex-shifts-south-toward-canada-us/?geo=AS&utm_cid=mash-prod-nav-geo#FlNvl7yjYmqR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 At the end of the GFS run we are already halfway through February almost haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Isn't it NAM time? For Tuesday's blockbuster??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Isn't it NAM time? For Tuesday's blockbuster??? NAM runs tomorrow will be a better guideline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Found this article on Yahoo tonight - the polar vortex is coming back in february... https://mashable.com/2018/01/25/arctic-blast-as-polar-vortex-shifts-south-toward-canada-us/?geo=AS&utm_cid=mash-prod-nav-geo#FlNvl7yjYmqR It's rare to see Mike Ventrice give a forecast like that on a public forum. His thoughts match up with what we've been saying on here, increased chances for cold intrusions from mid Feb into early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, griteater said: It's rare to see Mike Ventrice give a forecast like that on a public forum. His thoughts match up with what we've been saying on here, increased chances for cold intrusions from mid Feb into early March We don't need intrusions, we need embedded like a tick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 We don't need intrusions, we need embedded like a tickRedneck comment if there ever was one. LOL. Just having fun brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 6z GFS took all of us to Heartbreak Hotel... torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 6z GFS took all of us to Heartbreak Hotel... torch It looked ok to me. Keeps cold air in NA and keep the potential of storms. Also has a fantasy major ice storm for many CAD areas starting at day 12. Then at day 16 still shows cold air to our NW with chances of movement SE. Fantasy ice storm: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Wow the weather is sure boring right now, not even that much seems to be on the horizon. Unless your talking about maybe three weeks from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: 6z GFS took all of us to Heartbreak Hotel... torch Lol the 6z GFS is not a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol the 6z GFS is not a torch. Yeah lots of crazy in this thread lately....people need to let the pattern change happen...models are most likely pretty wrong in the 7+ day range if there is a major pattern change back to cold coming, they just don't do well with locking in on them until it actually happens....so if there is going to be another substantial cold outbreak it wont be evident until mid week or later.....but hey lets take the long range GFS to heart cause its always right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah lots of crazy in this thread lately....people need to let the pattern change happen...models are most likely pretty wrong in the 7+ day range if there is a major pattern change back to cold coming, they just don't do well with locking in on them until it actually happens....so if there is going to be another substantial cold outbreak it wont be evident until mid week or later.....but hey lets take the long range GFS to heart cause its always right Yeah agreed. But even if you take the LR 6z verbatim, it’s still not a torch. I don’t know for sure if the 10-15 day period will be warm or cold (although I’d lean cold), but it’s not being shown as a torch. I don’t know what maps people are looking at. My guess is that we see the blue and purple colors mostly to the north and west, with greens or yellows near us and assume that means warm. That isn’t the best way to interpret those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah agreed. But even if you take the LR 6z verbatim, it’s still not a torch. I don’t know for sure if the 10-15 day period will be warm or cold (although I’d lean cold), but it’s not being shown as a torch. I don’t know what maps people are looking at. My guess is that we see the blue and purple colors mostly to the north and west, with greens or yellows near us and assume that means warm. That isn’t the best way to interpret those maps. Exactly. It’s defin not a torch, and the respected forecasters have been saying it was going to be a battle ground as the cold pushed from the plains east toward mid February. Everything looks that way with indices so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah agreed. But even if you take the LR 6z verbatim, it’s still not a torch. I don’t know for sure if the 10-15 day period will be warm or cold (although I’d lean cold), but it’s not being shown as a torch. I don’t know what maps people are looking at. My guess is that we see the blue and purple colors mostly to the north and west, with greens or yellows near us and assume that means warm. That isn’t the best way to interpret those maps. It could just as easily stay warm through the end of February, or atleast normal temps. Just because all the cold is loaded in Canada, doesn't mean it has to hit the SE, the indicies have been wrong before 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It could just as easily stay warm through the end of February, or atleast normal temps. Just because all the cold is loaded in Canada, doesn't mean it has to hit the SE, the indicies have been wrong before Yep, it might never get cold again. That is definitely within the realm of possible outcomes. Not sure that I would tag it with a high probability marker, but you can’t deny that within the universe of all possible outcomes, eternal warm weather is one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, it might never get cold again. That is definitely within the realm of possible outcomes. Not sure that I would tag it with a high probability marker, but you can’t deny that within the universe of all possible outcomes, eternal warm weather is one. especially in our part of the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, it might never get cold again. That is definitely within the realm of possible outcomes. Not sure that I would tag it with a high probability marker, but you can’t deny that within the universe of all possible outcomes, eternal warm weather is one. Carl Parker (TWC) said this shot won't make it to the SE! Highs in 50s South of KY through the 17th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Carl Parker (TWC) said this shot won't make it to the SE! Highs in 50s South of KY through the 17th! Fortunately, we’re SE of Kentucky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Only 312 hrs. away! start a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Only 312 hrs. away! start a thread. It'll trend colder, models underestimate CAD, always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 No whammy, no whammy, no whammy Winter isn’t over yet. Both times I scored this year we didn’t see it coming until 2-3 days out. This is a year the LR globals have been awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 This might be a good set up for a major Ice Storm? JB thinks the cold will push east, IDK? Going to be interesting. Probably the most likely outcome will be a lot of snow/Ice west of the mountains at least to begin with. May take the middle or end of February for the cold makes it to the SE. I’m betting a lot of us sees an Ice Storm before the 20th. We don’t live at 5k feet, So I think models may miss seeing low level cold air in the LR!! JMOJB does say a war sets up from Texas to NE. So we may just stay warm like CR said. IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180127/454cbd63fa6f1e1a6b13c8e4153ebd6e.jpg[/img]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 314 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 NCZ007>011-024>028-041>043-078-281030- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne- 314 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight chance of wintry weather late Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Triangle area to the north and east. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 6z GFS says soggy times ahead... (KJNX) 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 4.15 " and Convective: 0.11 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I'm glad we are not supposed to look at op model runs, and that they don't handle pattern changes well, because 12z GFS has rain up to Michigan on Feb 7th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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