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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

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7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

10-4 and we are not even half-way done with our winter...more to come :mapsnow:

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5 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

The comments from people who have not been doing their homework have been very entertaining to say the least. Heck I have been hitting 400 yard long drives just since a few days ago while this torch has been going on. Anyway just relax as the Mother is coming and it will be fun.

Yeah, the heat and humidity make the air more buoyant, so 400 yd drives ate easier to come by!

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28 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

You raise a good point, even I saw a few flakes before Thanksgiving (first time in my life I have witnessed that). I think the main reason there is so much gnashing is because we are snow hungry, most of us are way overdue (myself included) for a major winter storm that dumps several feet of snow IOBYs.

If you think about it, the pattern goes back to LAST winter, Savannah got snow showers around St. Patrick’s Day for crying out loud (I was there). Then our summer was cooler than the last few years m and rainy, IMBY anyway, then followed up with the pattern flip at the end of October that set us up. Keep in mind, this is a LA NIÑA winter, just imagine if we had this set up with a weak El Niño...

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29 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

You raise a good point, even I saw a few flakes before Thanksgiving (first time in my life I have witnessed that). I think the main reason there is so much gnashing is because we are snow hungry, most of us are way overdue (myself included) for a major winter storm that dumps several feet of snow IOBYs.

If you think about it, the pattern goes back to LAST winter, Savannah got snow showers around St. Patrick’s Day for crying out loud (I was there). Then our summer was cooler than the last few years m and rainy, IMBY anyway, then followed up with the pattern flip at the end of October that set us up. Keep in mind, this is a LA NIÑA winter, just imagine if we had this set up with a weak El Niño...

If you are waiting for a storm to dump several feet of snow in Orangeburg, SC, your wait might be quite long, because that's not happening.  I've lived in the upstate of SC all 47 years of my life, and have only seen a 12"+ snow (1988).  Some peoples' expectations are hilarious to say the least...

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1 hour ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

The comments from people who have not been doing their homework have been very entertaining to say the least. Heck I have been hitting 400 yard long drives just since a few days ago while this torch has been going on. Anyway just relax as the Mother is coming and it will be fun.

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1 hour ago, Snow dog said:

If you are waiting for a storm to dump several feet of snow in Orangeburg, SC, your wait might be quite long, because that's not happening.  I've lived in the upstate of SC all 47 years of my life, and have only seen a 12"+ snow (1988).  Some peoples' expectations are hilarious to say the least...

I am happy with an inch a year, so anything more than that and I’m satisfied. Luckily I’m sitting at 5.4” total so far

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3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

It hasn't been that good for everyone in the Southeast... maybe that's why some are gnashing teeth more than others.

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54 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

 

This...this could work. Midday runs are good for about half of North Carolina.

Yes they are. Week away but its starting to catch my eye. Id be getting a hair tick excited espeacilly up your way if these trends keep up over the weekend. Boderline as it gets imby, but not out of the question some folks in NW NC outside of the mtns can't score frozen. Ill officially start tracking Sunday if its still hanging around on models. 

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If you got snow from the December event, Then Id suggest watching next Friday into Sat. Same areas are candidates, espeacilly mtns, to really luck up here. Noticed the GEM pics in the MTN thread comparing last 2 model runs how its not far off from Northern GA, mainly NW GA getting in on some action. Grain of salt and caution cause im just looking at surface and not H5 maps. But this sould get interesting.

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13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

If you got snow from the December event, Then Id suggest watching next Friday into Sat. Same areas are candidates, espeacilly mtns, to really luck up here. Noticed the GEM pics in the MTN thread comparing last 2 model runs how its not far off from Northern GA, mainly NW GA getting in on some action. Grain of salt and caution cause im just looking at surface and not H5 maps. But this sould get interesting.

Cold chasing moisture... no chance for anyone east of the apps, imo.  Northwest Georgia could possibly get something.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

It hasn't been that good for everyone in the Southeast... maybe that's why some are gnashing teeth more than others.

Exactly! My patience has run out with winter. After the last 2 duds and now this my pessimism is at an all time high. This is the most depressing map I've ever seen for CAE.

IMG_20180126_140916.jpg

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Part of RAH's afternoon discussion for this coming Monday night:

The mid level trof will amplify behind the system as a strong short

wave digs southeast into the Ohio Valley Monday night. The trof will

be nudged east, reinforcing the cool air advection as heights fall

and we will probably see some snow showers/flurries, especially in

the northern tier counties overnight as the trof axis pivots across

the area. Would not be surprised if we need to ramp up the PoPs and

maybe need to add a few tenths of snow accumulation as the details

emerge. Temperatures will fall below freezing towards midnight

across the north, with lows Tuesday morning ranging from 25 to 30

area-wide as the cool air settles in for midweek.

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7 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

Same here. IMBY I've had around 14 inches of snow this winter. That's like 5 years worth in Atlanta in the span of 2 months. Can't be mad at that.

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