BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Birds only count when they fly over Wilkesboro! JB bumbling and stumbling about cold, imagine that!? I better trade in my preemergent for a pallet of ice melt! Powerstoke better ready up the plows and plan on heading North. I have dandelions blooming, saw robins today, winters over! Okie dokie, guess we'll see you next fall then!! Have a great summer!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Birds only count when they fly over Wilkesboro! JB bumbling and stumbling about cold, imagine that!? I better trade in my preemergent for a pallet of ice melt! Powerstoke better ready up the plows and plan on heading North. I have dandelions blooming, saw robins today, winters over! Probably have chick weed and henbit to. They are perennial weeds that will pop out when temps above 60 for a couple of days. Get you some speedzone you will be fine. No need for me to go North I made plenty last week to sit back and relax and take Big Frost out to eat. However thank you for the concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 hours ago, WeatherHawk said: Thanks Just teasing about the snake...poor attempt at humor I got it, found it to be funny. Well done!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Less than 10 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Latest run of the CMC looks atrocious to start February..if you haven't looked yet, don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 00z GFS pulls the frigid air into southern Canada with 2m temp readings approaching -50 just off the US Canada border, throws the SE a couple transient cold "chilly" shots, then cancels winter within the next 3 frames. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 6 hours ago, WarmNose said: 00z GFS pulls the frigid air into southern Canada with 2m temp readings approaching -50 just off the US Canada border, throws the SE a couple transient cold "chilly" shots, then cancels winter within the next 3 frames. Unreal Luckily, the 6z gives quite a few possibilities of wintry threats, so we have the best model in the world on our side! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The GFS only goes out to February 10. All the data I've looked at suggests that the last 2/3 of the month would be cold. I'll start cancelling winter when the 10th-20th also looks warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 hours ago, WarmNose said: 00z GFS pulls the frigid air into southern Canada with 2m temp readings approaching -50 just off the US Canada border, throws the SE a couple transient cold "chilly" shots, then cancels winter within the next 3 frames. Unreal See Snowgoose's post from yesterday on how the GFS has handled temps at this range of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Toss the 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 24 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Toss the 6z GFS? Toss all model solutions past day 10. Especially if there is a potential pattern change incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Toss the 6z GFS? No way. Pattern looks really active from the 5th and beyond. We can work temps out later. May be on to something. We all know the GFS isn't one to quick big adjustments. It's getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Here comes my 1050 high. Get ready y’all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Here comes my 1050 high. Get ready y’all! Late Dec.- early Jan. Redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Here comes my 1050 high. Get ready y’all! BL issues! That looks like a leftover piece of lost pepperoni and jalapeño pizza that got left behind and they tried to cover up with a fresh meat-lovers. I just hope this stuff doesn't get pushing back in time! . Your 1055 high is 384 out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Hope everyone has enjoyed their thaw/break. Cause February is getting ready to write the exclamation point on one of the top 5 all time winters in the SE. Ill be very suprised with what Im seeing and reading if the winter of 2017/2018 doesnt go out with a grand finally "Glory Style." 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 A lot of talk on here today about the "irrelevant" GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Models struggle with a pattern change. You see LR maps look cold then warm then zonal then average then cold then warm then cold or whatever. Nothing to worry too much about. Most indicators point to a below average Feb. That's the main point. If we get to the first week of Feb and it looks like the cold pattern is still 10-15 days out, then we can start to worry a bit. Right now, there are no indications of that happening. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Models, especially the GFS are horrible at pattern changes, they never lock into a blocky pattern until its within 7 days or so.....folks need to look at the indexes, and overall setup and not hug the warm ups the GFS has after the first week of Feb....if the forecast for most indexes are correct and frankly they probably are then it will be very cold in Feb....sometime between Feb 1-10th its gonna get blocky and be darn near record cold for 7-10 days at least . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Great posts CR and downeast. You newer folks heed their last two posts, you will enjoy this hobby more. BTW I would not bet against NCSNOW or his last post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Remember how the GFS had a SE ridge that left the cold(est) air further west back in late Dec? That didn't turn out so well and as we got closer in time the ridge fizzled out. I know late Dec/early Jan climo is different and less conducive for a SE ridge but I wouldn't bet against that happening again. In any case, the first week of Feb was always supposed to be a transition week. I'm optimistic...however we do live in the SE where luck is needed for winter weather no matter how the indices are stacked. In other news, 00z EPS has a bit more support for the possible Feb 2-3 event in MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I think most of us would take this look the first week of February: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 35 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Hope everyone has enjoyed their thaw/break. Cause February is getting ready to write the exclamation point on one of the top 5 all time winters in the SE. Ill be very suprised with what Im seeing and reading if the winter of 2017/2018 doesnt go out with a grand finally "Glory Style." You've been JB'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 My latest thoughts are that early Feb will favor a more traditional -EPO pattern where the core of the cold is to our NW, transitioning to a colder mean pattern for us in the mid Feb timeframe. Here's the GEFS on Feb 5. We do better cold-wise when the mean western ridge is in E Alaska / W Canada as opposed to straight thru Alaska like this image. We currently have the most coherent MJO event of the winter ongoing, but it's going to take some time for it to propagate east out of the Maritime Continent / Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific. The bad news is that a stronger MJO event means slower propagation, with the good news (for cold lovers) being that a slower propagation may keep the MJO in the cold phases longer. The weekly NOAA MJO Updates have good info related to the MJO (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf). Here are a few snippets from the latest version... "The MJO remains active, with the enhanced phase over the Maritime Continent and the suppressed phase over the Pacific. A robust Wave-1 asymmetry remains very apparent in the upper-level circulation pattern, reflecting an organized MJO event. Dynamical and statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with the enhanced phase propagating from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next two weeks. Recent MJO activity teleconnects well with the current extratropical pattern over the CONUS. If a robust West Pacific MJO event occurs, the extratropical response may favor a transition to a colder pattern for the central and eastern U.S. during mid-February" We shall see...these are just some long range thoughts that are inherently less reliable than short range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I notice a trend so far this winter, and PLEASE correct me if wrong 8-10 days out: GFS 5-8 days out: bank on the EURO inside 5 days: NAM, UK, JMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 That look in Grits post has a Rockies trough look, which won't do anybody well in the SE that wants cold and snow! Also, gonna have to get pretty cold air to get wintry precip, 10 degrees BN, puts me at 45 ish for a high! Hard to get wintry with that! Need some 20-30 BN temps to score IMBY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 34 minutes ago, griteater said: My latest thoughts are that early Feb will favor a more traditional -EPO pattern where the core of the cold is to our NW, transitioning to a colder mean pattern for us in the mid Feb timeframe. Here's the GEFS on Feb 5. We do better cold-wise when the mean western ridge is in E Alaska / W Canada as opposed to straight thru Alaska like this image. We currently have the most coherent MJO event of the winter ongoing, but it's going to take some time for it to propagate east out of the Maritime Continent / Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific. The bad news is that a stronger MJO event means slower propagation, with the good news (for cold lovers) being that a slower propagation may keep the MJO in the cold phases longer. The weekly NOAA MJO Updates have good info related to the MJO (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf). Here are a few snippets from the latest version... "The MJO remains active, with the enhanced phase over the Maritime Continent and the suppressed phase over the Pacific. A robust Wave-1 asymmetry remains very apparent in the upper-level circulation pattern, reflecting an organized MJO event. Dynamical and statistical models strongly support continued MJO activity, with the enhanced phase propagating from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next two weeks. Recent MJO activity teleconnects well with the current extratropical pattern over the CONUS. If a robust West Pacific MJO event occurs, the extratropical response may favor a transition to a colder pattern for the central and eastern U.S. during mid-February" We shall see...these are just some long range thoughts that are inherently less reliable than short range. Good post. How does the EPS look through its run? Your thoughts on the MJO are spot on. And please tell Mack, that he can still easily get a fresh out of the oven Miller B in that pattern and get an inch of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 33 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I notice a trend so far this winter, and PLEASE correct me if wrong 8-10 days out: GFS 5-8 days out: bank on the EURO inside 5 days: NAM, UK, JMA The NAM is a 3.5 day model I believe with lower probs. at its extended range (>48hrs). That said, it has been pretty good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That look in Grits post has a Rockies trough look, which won't do anybody well in the SE that wants cold and snow! Also, gonna have to get pretty cold air to get wintry precip, 10 degrees BN, puts me at 45 ish for a high! Hard to get wintry with that! Need some 20-30 BN temps to score IMBY! Its pretty much how the Jan outbreak started......2 of the 3 biggest snows in my life happened Feb 24th and Mar 2-3.....the thing about Feb cold is climo wise its about the coldest air you can get in the arctic with the cold peaking there in early to mid Feb..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That look in Grits post has a Rockies trough look, which won't do anybody well in the SE that wants cold and snow! Also, gonna have to get pretty cold air to get wintry precip, 10 degrees BN, puts me at 45 ish for a high! Hard to get wintry with that! Need some 20-30 BN temps to score IMBY! 10 below at the surface on a sunny day isnt what you need to look for. How bout 2 to 5 BN at 850 when a storm is winding up. Then youll get your 20 BN at the surface thanks to frozen precip falling into wedged CAD 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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