WarmNose Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: LOL, I really like how the 12z GFS is depicting the change to a colder patter after day 10........and I like the fantasy storms as well Looks rainy back on topic: 12" snowstorms are hard to come by at GSP. I believe the last one was The great southern slider of 88' which is why we cherish our 6" events around here. Ceasers Head saw 29" in February of 69' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Looks rainy back on topic: 12" snowstorms are hard to come by at GSP. I believe the last one was The great southern slider of 88' which is why we cherish our 6" events around here. Ceasers Head saw 29" in February of 69' Actually, Pickens , Oconee snow, Greenville county rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 this might be a once in a lifetime set up... we all might set records (given mine is 28” in the Blizzard of 73, that’s really saying something).Doubt we set one here. Officially KECG is 25" March 1980. Our home at the time was 32" in southern Camden County with the same storm. The next highest is 17.5" which fell two weeks prior to that in February 1980, two days after my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I hear you Orangeburg. My top snowfalls are: 17/ Feb 2004 15/ Jan 2000 15/ March 1993 So since we are breaking records this winter; just once I want to expierence a 2 Footer. Think Frosty had a 19 inch couple years ago. Jburns had 19 on that Feb 2004, Raleigh think had 22 in Jan 2000. So Im not alone in a quest to join the 2 foot club. Not sure anyone was around down east in I beleive spring 1980 they where right at 2 foot mark.I was 10 years old for that storm. We had 32" at our house in the south end of Camden County. Two weeks prior to that we had 17.5". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Fraz or Falls, Can you tell from the LR maps if that fantasy storm has cold air avecting into the region, retreating, or is just fropa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Fraz or Falls, Can you tell from the LR maps if that fantasy storm has cold air avecting into the region, retreating, or is just fropa? That's rain changing to snow. So cold air overtaking the system with perfect timing; which we know is usually an issue (...and is 11 days out). The most important thing about the 12 GFS is the pattern that it show for the LR. We have to try not to look at the fantasy storms that should start popping more in the coming days. **but we will look... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: this might be a once in a lifetime set up... we all might set records (given mine is 28” in the Blizzard of 73, that’s really saying something). 28" is so impressive for SC. ORF's daily record is 17.5" back from the 1890s, I believe we've never cracked 15" afterward. Maybe during the Blizzard of 1989, but I'll defer to people who know more. I do miss living in SE Europe, Dinaric Alps are indeed a beautiful place. In some spots it's a 15 mile drive from 0' to 5000-6000'. Going from sunbathing at the beach in the 60s to 10+ feet of snow and subfreezing temps in less than an hour really is incredible. Anyway, back on topic. I like our prospects for Feb, the indices are falling into place. Looking at the 12z GFS, cold rebuilds in Canada by the end of the month and then overspreads the country east of the Rockies by the end of the first week of Feb. It would be nice to score sooner rather than later considering increasingly hostile climo in this neck of the woods as we near spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: That's rain changing to snow. So cold air overtaking the system with perfect timing; which we know is usually an issue (...and is 11 days out). The most important thing about the 12 GFS is the pattern that it show for the LR. We have to try not to look at the fantasy storms that should start popping more in the coming days. **but we will look... Yeah that look is going to change a lot between now and then. Point is there are going to be some good shots at another storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 The MJO has received a lot of attention lately with respect to the upcoming pattern, and rightfully so. The active MJO phase is currently located over the eastern Maritime Continent and Western Pacific (seen here via -VP anomalies in blue & purple; -VP measures upper level divergence associated with tropical convection). Source for this loop: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/mjo/global_analyses.html The strongest tropical forcing (-VP forcing) of this winter was recorded in that region just last week: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/955430819581059072 MJO > Mid-Latitude Circulation theory suggests that the potential for western ridging and eastern troughing will go up once these -VP anomalies move east into the Eastern Pacific and continue east thru Africa. See Mike Ventrice's AMS Conf Presentation for more info: https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036 The CFS forecast moves the -VP anomalies into the eastern Pacific in the Feb 5-11 timeframe. From there, the MJO would support, say, a 3-4 week window where periods of western ridge / eastern trough are likely. Source: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ (the term "CHI" here = VP Anomalies; green is -VP) Today's EPS Mean has a western ridge / eastern trough at day 15 (Feb 6) The pattern of northern stream dominance, typical of La Ninas, and especially 2nd year La Ninas, could continue as the subtropical jet has been notably absent thus far this winter. Note the blue shading along 20N - 30N just NE of Hawaii and extending east into the Gulf of Mexico, indicating zonal westerly winds at 250mb that have been weaker than normal so far this winter. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: this might be a once in a lifetime set up... we all might set records (given mine is 28” in the Blizzard of 73, that’s really saying something). New rule!! No one under 50 years of age may say, "this might be a once in a lifetime __________". Damn kids. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 New rule!! No one under 50 years of age may say, "this might be a once in a lifetime __________". Damn kids.Closing in on 50 (48 in three weeks) I find your rule hilarious. Damn kids were born between 1990 and present day. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Lol! Who is that guy? Looks like a Wilkes snow map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! Who is that guy? Looks like a Wilkes snow map? crankywxguy...and he's no Wilkes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: crankywxguy...and he's no Wilkes. I've only recently seen him mentioned or maps over the last 2 storms. Never heard of him before then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I've only recently seen him mentioned or maps over the last 2 storms. Never heard of him before thenCheck out his webpage. Read his blog postings as well. Lots of good stuff on this webpage.http://stormhamster.com 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Euro Weeklies come in pretty much as expected. Has western ridge / eastern trough pattern beginning in week 3 (Feb 5-12) and continues through early March. +NAO. Looks northern stream dominant like we've had most of the winter. Precip is below normal weeks 3 to 4...near normal thereafter thru week 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Euro Weeklies come in pretty much as expected. Has western ridge / eastern trough pattern beginning in week 3 (Feb 5-12) and continues through early March. +NAO. Looks northern stream dominant like we've had most of the winter. Precip is below normal weeks 3 to 4...near normal thereafter thru week 6Do we trust the weeklies? They haven't been that great this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 6 hours ago, NCSNOW said: I hear you Orangeburg. My top snowfalls are: 17/ Feb 2004 15/ Jan 2000 15/ March 1993 So since we are breaking records this winter; just once I want to expierence a 2 Footer. Think Frosty had a 19 inch couple years ago. Jburns had 19 on that Feb 2004, Raleigh think had 22 in Jan 2000. So Im not alone in a quest to join the 2 foot club. Not sure anyone was around down east in I beleive spring 1980 they where right at 2 foot mark. Yes Sir I did get 19", 11" of it was in a four hour period. Beat all I ever seen that morning 4 inches in one hour!!! I doubt I'll ever see anything close to that again, but it sure would be nice to have a run at it......................................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Makes you wonder if the next event possibly comes from something along a stalled frontal boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 45 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Weeklies come in pretty much as expected. Has western ridge / eastern trough pattern beginning in week 3 (Feb 5-12) and continues through early March. +NAO. Looks northern stream dominant like we've had most of the winter. Precip is below normal weeks 3 to 4...near normal thereafter thru week 6 Do we trust the weeklies? They haven't been that great this winter. They've been fine from what I've seen. They were too quick to warm things up in Jan, but we're in it now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Pretty much everything you can get your hands on shows it cooling down in early Feb. I’d give the Weeklies some weight. I wish they’d be a bit more robust with the STJ, but we can make well-times northern stream stuff work out. Looks like some stout cold near the end of the 18z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 39 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes Sir I did get 19", 11" of it was in a four hour period. Beat all I ever seen that morning 4 inches in one hour!!! I doubt I'll ever see anything close to that again, but it sure would be nice to have a run at it......................................... You received more in that storm than we did up in Pine Ridge area. We received 15. I`m not complaining though. Biggest storm I've seen was January 1996 when we received 18 in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: You received more in that storm than we did up in Pine Ridge area. We received 15. I`m not complaining though. Biggest storm I've seen was January 1996 when we received 18 in. I'd love to see another one 15" or 19", I'll be a happy snowman!!! I do believe some parts of NC will see a biggie before spring................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I'd love to see another one 15" or 19", I'll be a happy snowman!!! I do believe some parts of NC will see a biggie before spring................... According to what Robert at wxsouth February could be cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I'd love to see another one 15" or 19", I'll be a happy snowman!!! I do believe some parts of NC will see a biggie before spring................... Yep, I just want to set another snowfall record here before I pass the torch. 1988 and 1969 both saw greater than 15 inches of snow. We have had plenty of 1 footers. I am still holding out for the elusive 20" storm. Could this be the year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Actually, Pickens , Oconee snow, Greenville county rain Forget about Oconee & Pickens the WAA aloft that sits its rear end right over these two areas on most events will rear its ugly head I am sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: According to what Robert at wxsouth February could be cold and stormy. He was one of the very few I remember nailing December and January. I wouldn't discount it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: He was one of the very few I remember nailing December and January. I wouldn't discount it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: He was one of the very few I remember nailing December and January. I wouldn't discount it.... Yes, I always liked Robert's analysis of LR patterns when he posted here. His winter forecast is looking pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now