Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 32 minutes ago Said Wednesday I like looks of southern and eastern threat next week, May snow somewhere on the gulf coast for the 3rd time this winter Pattern with max coming thru Ohio valley big deal. Posting on http://weatherbell.com right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12Z GEFS has a huge increase of snow for NC by day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The lowest ratio I saw for CLT on bufkit was 13:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6Z 12Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A couple days of cold before this to lower soil temperatures.. The soil temperatures have risen greatly in the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 UK isn't enthused, pretty much dry except less than .10 in NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: UK isn't enthused, pretty much dry except less than .10 in NE NC. Where do you get precip maps past 72 hours for the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Where do you get precip maps past 72 hours for the UKMET? weathermodels.com - subscription required Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mrdaddyman said: weathermodels.com - subscription required Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ukmet free here. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: Shortwave is trending slower(blocking) and digging more southwest. More people have a chance if that trend continues. Agree, those are the trends to root for H5. Also should be some killer ratios with this event, so keep that in mind, not out of the question to get 15 to 1 or better espeacilly north of i 40. Just need it to keep digging on future runs and we should all be happy by this time next week. .25qpf with 15 to 1 ratios is 4 inches. Not to hard or extreme a scenerio to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EURO/GFS/NAVGEM is not a bad coalition to have on your side going inside day 5. The question is: will the other two hold serve? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 E11 for the win: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: E11 for the win: That’s an interesting gap. Not much support for the OP GFS showing the late coastal takeover helping snow totals in the East. GEFS is all or nothing as far as coastal development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12Z NAVGEM looks like a decent event for Charlotte/Triad/Triangle folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 So the UKMet at 500mb was pretty much unchanged from its previous run. Its surface reflection moves a sfc low through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast as opposed to focusing the key piece of energy into the southern portion of the trough with sfc low moving off NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The 12z GFS depiction of a snow storm over the NC to VA makes sense to me. I take note when the GFS holds energy back, because its a model that likes to push things forward in the medium and long-range (I'm not sure if this bias has been corrected). This creates enough time for the upper level low to close off in the Southeast. EURO and GGEM has shown this solution. Anyway plenty of cold air available to produce snowfall all the way to the coast. As has been the case for the last few weeks, plenty of tropical moisture available in the Atlantic. This moisture pocket, and associated warm air, just keeps sticking around, will allow for a larger temperature gradient to develop. We saw it with the Bomb storm, were seeing it today, and the models continue to push this tropical air mass towards the southeast. Even here in Hollywood, FL, we experienced this temperature gradient and the prevalent tropical moisture pushing back in from the Bahamas and Florida Straights (an area where pretty strong LPs and boundaries have formed within the last few weeks). Meanwhile, there's plenty of entertainment weather-wise over the next two weeks, and plenty of interesting questions. We have crazy anomalies in Canada next Monday. 0c line pushes to the Arctic Ocean, and 2-meter temperatures in the NW Territory push into the 2-5. A couple more cold fronts. We'll see if it results in any snowy possibilities. Additionally, GFS and and a few other runs of other models seem to present the possibility of a subtropical system forming at various time frames. I can see it happening. But overall, the main question is how long can cold air keep plunging this far South? Eventually, these cold air masses are going to need to recharge. If positive anomalies continue to form over the North Pole, can these fronts continue to push extreme temperatures into Siberia, and consequently, the Eastern United States. End of Verbal Vomit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro out to 78 is pretty vigorous with the wave dropping down over the upper Midwest...western ridge is a little taller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Should be another positive run of the Euro....it even has decent snow developing in ARLATX this run at 93-96 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Real similar to last run of the Euro so far out to 111, but it's a little sharper with the trough, and a little more SW with it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 At 123-126, it has good snow from Columbia to eastern upstate to most of central and NW NC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, griteater said: At 123-126, it has good snow from Columbia to eastern upstate to most of central and NW NC Bring on the BOOM, Grit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 NAM brings snow flurries pretty close to Raleigh on Saturday, more east and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro is quite vigorous with the wave...closing it off at 129-132 over SW VA and NW NC, with vort max tracking thru N GA to E NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'll come back wearing a sombrero and mustache.Come back like an old school wrestler under an assumed name wearing a mask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Red1976Red said: Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 32 minutes ago Said Wednesday I like looks of southern and eastern threat next week, May snow somewhere on the gulf coast for the 3rd time this winter Pattern with max coming thru Ohio valley big deal. Posting on http://weatherbell.com right now The winter of 2017/2018 already has made some great history from a winter lovers perspective across the SE. Saw a post reading through everything and I dont want to rehash/document all the events up until this point. I just want to call attention to the increasing possibility that this winter could end up being one we reference back to for years to come. All we need is 1 to 2 more decent hits in the right spot and just about everyone on this board will end up above to much above normal climo wise for snowfall. Couple that with the cold(guranteed BN for RDU (Nov,Dec,Jan) we start getting into the wowza territory. Im rooting for FEB and March to end up BN. I would never in my lifetime thought Id see RDU run BN Nov-March no matter what the pattern. Just food for thought and definitely putting the cart before the hoarse here, but its doable no doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'll go ahead and take E1, E4, E11, or E17 please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Decent snow Charlotte and NE at 126, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 By hour 126 about half a foot of snow in MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm thinking this run will be close to half an inch or maybe six tenths QPF for north meck/eastern lincoln/southern iredell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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