WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z GFS pitching another shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: 18z GFS pitching another shutout But not even coming up to bat , is better than going 0-6! Don't forget we get some rain next Saturday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Another 1042 HP dropping down at the end of the 18z GFS run. The torch will have to wait just a little bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Also a nice wave entering the states over Baja California. Could have legs if the NS would leave it alone Close it off over Texas and let's go dancing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The buffet is loaded tonight, boys! Need to bring out some more heat lamps or something. The food’s starting to get cold! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I’m waiting on the daily 780 hour 850 temps... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I’m waiting on the daily 780 hour 850 temps...I'm waiting on the 1440 hour 850 temps. May 11th should look beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 12 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m waiting on the daily 780 hour 850 temps... I'm waiting on the 1440 hour 850 temps. May 11th should look beautiful. Yeah true. It may warm up by then. If not, then July should be in the 70s... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well I mean if it's not going to snow... Nothing cleans the salt off the roads like a LCHS spin up. Nice sounding for Jan. over central NC Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A few individual GFS ensemble members have had some nice snows pretty far south. There should be a few good shots, the Aleutian ridge models have is something that will change soon, default Nina programming or something, I've seen it before, it's a model glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro tosses some of the SE screw zone folks a bone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 And the GEFS is showing some chances, too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 RAH still mentioning the possibility. Stating only flurries right now; but that should be expected with the uncertainty and the type of system. A strong clipper low will meanwhile have migrated to the Great Lakes by Mon morning, where it will occlude through Tue. Subsequent secondary/coastal cyclogenesis is then expected along the middle Atlantic and New England coast through the middle of the week, as the parent upr trough amplifies across the Appalachians and middle Atlantic states. Any coastal cyclogenesis is likely to be initially slow/weak, owing to the presence of fast, strongly meridional flowdownstream of the trough, at least until the trough lifts across about 40N, where the presence of a strong/blocking positive heightanomaly over the N. Atlantic will provide room for flowamplification. Nonetheless, that same fast flow aloft, and embedded jetstreaks/upper front will favor some jet-induced precipitation from mid level cloud bases over the middle Atlantic states late Tue-early Wed. Given large spread in guidance, and the probable presence of a relatively deep, dry sub-cloud layer, will maintain continuity with the previous dry forecast. However, portions of cntl NC may indeed see at least a few sprinkles or flurries with the passage of the uprtrough and related reinforcing Arctic cold front during that time; and small PoP may be introduced in subsequent forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ride the Euro! It gives many here a little snow next week! GFS = NADA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 How is the EURO spitting out so much precip over the piedmont? Seems highly suspicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Ride the Euro! It gives many here a little snow next week! GFS = NADA Wish I had a dime for every exclamation point you used. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Poimen said: How is the EURO spitting out so much precip over the piedmont? Seems highly suspicious to me. I agree. But there have been similar setups (clipper --> coastal development) that have produced for NC in the past. It's hard to do (perfect timing, etc.), but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well... the 6Z NAVGEM has a similar solution at 120, showing a swath of modest precip over the Carolinas as the trough axis approaches. Interesting. EDIT: more precip at 126 across central/eastern NC as the coastal low forms near the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Kuchera maps look even better. Up to a foot in eastern guilford with 7" down to Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Poimen said: Well... the 6Z NAVGEM has a similar solution at 120, showing a swath of modest precip over the Carolinas as the trough axis approaches. Interesting. EDIT: more precip at 126 across central/eastern NC as the coastal low forms near the OBX. These redevelopment types never do well for me here in the western piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 1/12/18, 08:04 Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Kuchera maps look even better. Up to a foot in eastern guilford with 7" down to Salisbury. Is that for the NAVGEM? If so, where are you seeing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: These redevelopment types never do well for me here in the western piedmont. I figured its a long shot here...but maybe we squeeze out something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: Is that for the NAVGEM? If so, where are you see it? I'm guessing he's referring to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yes, sorry I wasnt clear. I am referring to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 1/12/18, 08:04 Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh I used to watch JB vids and read his summaries when he was with AccuWeather. If I recall, he always "theorized" that during La Nina's that -NAO's became more likely toward the end of winter into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 1/12/18, 08:04 Models are beginning to hint of Greenland blocking towards the end of January into early February. Could partially aid in the development of another exciting winter pattern for the US and Europe if it sticks pic.twitter.com/QFZmFzIbeh Just looking at the GFS, we never get into an extended warm period. We cycle between warm and cold. Of course there's app/lake cutters but the cold air stays to our NW. So if we can get the blocking, we'll be able to quickly go into a winter storm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: It's at Tropical Tidbits. Yeah, I have that link. It would be nice to have total precip values and not just rates. But beggars can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Depending on the timing and strength of the cold air these type of setups have actually done ok in the past for a general 2-4" event over a lot of NC.....just need a strong wave to pass south of the mts and track east south of NC and then pop the weak coastal.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A similarity to the last storm where the lack of phasing on the Euro allows the s/w to dig more SW to pull in moisture more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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