Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Great winter so far and my expectations were real low heading into this winter.

Front-end load of snow your way and now COLD weather. Yup. I got 2 1/2 out of December and looking for more.  But yes, I did not think we would roll the cold like we have over the last few days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping from central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

This will be an Arctic cold airnass, albeit stale, but with DPs in single digits and temps around 30, if we time it right, could be really bad!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement. 

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15  over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement. 

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15  over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga. 

But ice instead of snow? What are 850s, 925s looking like? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think the best you could hope for would be a little snow or sleet at onset, but definitely an icy set up

This is definitely our storm, my spider senses are tingling. I'm not worried about cold air, it's the QPF going UP that worries me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Grit saying the storm is South on latest runs, but colder! I swear if we lose another one South, I may snap

It is south and colder, but there's still QPF around. Keep cool, let's put the pitchfork and torches away, for now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018010312/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_25.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GSP not too impressed at this point. Says nuisance event for Monday morning before becoming all rain by midday when bulk of precip arrives. Needs to come in a day earlier when it's still cold, but of course it won't. I guess I have to move the CHS now to see snow...

 

The current forecast has highs
still only in the 30s with temps allowed to drop into the 20s Sunday
evening. Looking at the partial thickness p-type nomograms for the
three medium range models, there is decent agreement on any precip
developing overnight being a mixed bag of snow, sleet and freezing
rain across anywhere it reaches the ground in the CWFA. With PoPs
ramping up overnight, I expect at least a nuisance ice/light snow
event. At this point, it looks like WAA should gradually transition
p-types to all rain by midday Monday (at the time of heaviest precip
rates). With that said, using consensus temps and timing of PoPs,
I do get some likely wintry p-type with light accums before daybreak
Monday. This is especially a concern for the mountains. I will plan
to add a mention of winter weather possible for Monday in the HWO.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO shows pretty nasty icing, especially NWNC and VA.. More than nuisance level for sure and its trending better.. We will see... The bomb heading up the East coast could help act as a 50/50 low and keep our cold air entrenched longer.. Probably why models are showing further south solutions

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys,

I haven't even remotely followed this event yet. Been so entertained by my family in Charleston and Ladson/Summerville area getting plastered. What does qpf look like for the general region?

QPF looks pretty good. Generally .5 to .7 for most, possible more.. especially upstate and WNC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

QPF looks pretty good. Generally .5 to .7 for most, possible more.. especially upstate and WNC

Wow VERY nice! Lets do it! Will begin my journey into this upcoming storm and start assessing the model suites as they come out. Talk to everyone soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...