Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[CaryWx]

I practically shiver just watching that

[BIG FROSTY]

Day 10 Euro for kicks and giggles!!



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[griteater]

42 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GEFS just won't quit...

Was noticing this trend too Pack.  It's like a 3 step process.  Step 1 - strong low emerges off E Asia and moves northeast.  Step 2: -EPO ridge builds thru Alaska / W Canada.  Step 3 - cold air plunges south into S Canada and the U.S.  But it's like the models play catchup a lot with Step 3.  When you start to see step 1 on the modeling (the strong low emerging off E Asia), it's a good sign that Step 3 will occur even if the models aren't currently showing it - I guess Step 3 is farther out in time on the model, and it's more difficult for the model to render it that far out in time.

HM (Anthony M) says no torch coming for January.  If you are interested in long range forecasting and you don't follow him, you should.  He's the best there is IMO at producing long range forecast ideas that go beyond model interpretation.

 

[BullCityWx]

HM is a quality follow. I just read that.

[mackerel_sky]

CLT still 3.2 Above normal for the month! LOL!

[tarheelwx]

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CLT still 3.2 Above normal for the month! LOL!

Mann is reporting CLT’s numbers. 

[JoshM]

Isn't what HM is writing about similar to January 1985, where it just kept coming and coming, and eventually the polar vortex came to visit?

[BornAgain13]

Looks like those possible torches for mid month are fading face... this is a long lasting cold!

[vwgrrc]

FWIW, the fantasy storm on CMC is gone as well... 9 days to go

[WidreMann]

3 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

Mann is reporting CLT’s numbers. 

That's weird, because RDU is now below normal for the month.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS sets up a typical la Nina pattern after the first week of January. Looks like cold shots, warm up with lake cutters, and then cold again. This is where we really need the help of the NAO.

 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS sets up a typical la Nina pattern after the first week of January. Looks like cold shots, warm up with lake cutters, and then cold again. This is where we really need the help of the NAO.

 

Its almost certainly just trying to break the pattern down too early.  The EPS really has looked nothing like that aside from one system that may cut or semi-cut during the brief moderation

[FallsLake]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its almost certainly just trying to break the pattern down too early.  The EPS really has looked nothing like that aside from one system that may cut or semi-cut during the brief moderation

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

[weathertree4u]

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

I was just thinking the same thing, what year was that and you are right, it is ironically opposite of what we usually see, where the cold is always in the LR and keeps getting pushed back. I know here in the Nashville area, the record of consecutive days below 32 is 9, back from the late 1800's, we should come close to that after today, we are not projected to break 32 until at least next Saturday. Hopefully the utilities are up to the stress of sustained cold.

[lookingnorth]

I wonder if this winter will wind up like 1969-70, with a ton of cold and not much snow.

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

I wonder if this winter will wind up like 1969-70, with a ton of cold and not much snow.

Might be a blessing in disguise. With snowpack, what is cold now will be frigid with snow.

[lookingnorth]

2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Might be a blessing in disguise. With snowpack, what is cold now will be frigid with snow.

But I want snow and I'm fine with extreme cold.

[Cold Rain]

CFS still looking cold in the east for January.

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

CFS still looking cold in the east for January.

Gonna be a long cold winter.  Bundle up!

[BullCityWx]

After hour 18, we don’t make it out of the 20s through the end of the run on the NAM.

[superjames1992]

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I remember a few years back we saw the models keep showing warm ups in the LR, but the EPO totally dominated the pattern and it kept us cold. The models would just keep pushing the warm up back. **Ironically opposite of what we're use to where the models keep pushing our cold back.    

2013-2014, I think.  It was pretty cold from late January through mid/late March.

[WidreMann]

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

CFS still looking cold in the east for January.

Curiously, the weeklies show it warming up after next week. I suppose it's different ensembles for monthly vs weekly. But it's surprising.

[BullCityWx]

6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Curiously, the weeklies show it warming up after next week. I suppose it's different ensembles for monthly vs weekly. But it's surprising.

I want to say that the weeklies kept insisting on warmth during that one EPO driven year that was always muted by the modeling.

[mackerel_sky]

The GFS has the 8/9th rainstorm incoming! Finally, glad to warm up and get some rain

[griteater]

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

CFS still looking cold in the east for January.

Trending.  Check out Alaska

[Jonathan]

HM (I'm paraphrasing here) basically said on Twitter yesterday that the N PAC pattern looks to remain solid for the foreseeable future and if you think the overall large scale pattern will break down, you're probably gonna be wrong. 

@antmasiello "If you are expecting the North Pacific pattern to flip next month or take on some kind of 2012-like look, you're going to be disappointed. It's not happening."

"The Siberian stationary wave system and MQI should prevent a torch scenario. This doesn't mean zero periods of warmth or SE ridge. AAM propagation is one wildcard as well as any intraseasonal Indo pulse. But background state should limit their dominance... Gulp."

"One crazier scenario is that the IO forcing-->N Pac circulation lock, creates a looping RMM, weaker Indo response and right back to dual Pac mode forcing. If that occurs, more significant Arctic shots would be on the way next month after current one settles."

[Cold Rain]

2 hours ago, WidreMann said:

Curiously, the weeklies show it warming up after next week. I suppose it's different ensembles for monthly vs weekly. But it's surprising.

I think the Weeklies are going to cave soon.  Probably Monday.

[packbacker]

Here comes our cutter...we won’t miss this one off the coast.  

[Tacoma]

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The GFS has the 8/9th rainstorm incoming! Finally, glad to warm up and get some rain

Of course, we get moisture it warms up and rains, go figure.

[Tacoma]

13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Here comes our cutter...we won’t miss this one off the coast.  

Of course, ghezzzzzzzzzzz