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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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Figured start posting in this thread, 2017 wasn’t a good year for winter weather in Raleigh so let’s hope 2018 brings better luck.  Can’t see how it can get worse.  

We have seen trailing waves swinging around the base of a trough work before and trend better from this range.   The Jan 4-6 potential looks to have marginal cold per Euro/EPS and we know how that works outside of nwNC/SC/GA.  For us Raleigh folks the Jan 1-2 event looks like it for atleast a few weeks.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

Trends over past 48 for day 6-7 has been for better west coast ridge and deeper east trough. 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_15.png

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I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event.

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event.

 

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^ The 24th looks good. :)

Usually, that model tends to lock in the last week or so of the month.  I think when it’s all said and done, this is going to be one of those winters where the much anticipated winter over doesn’t happen the way many expect.  We usually see false starts with cold patterns.  We’ve seen that with warmth this year.  A couple weeks ago, it looked like a lock for Dec to finish above normal.  How’s that looking now?

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Eventually, one of these warm typical Nina winter cancel calls has to be right....doesn’t it?

I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina.  It's showing good persistence.  Gives me some hope going into mid January.  Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina.  It's showing good persistence.  Gives me some hope going into mid January.  Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. 

Agree, think we are going to see the cold last well into January if not longer. Probably wont have a real shot of a big dog until the pattern relaxes which may not be for until at least the middle off the month. Hopefully I'm wrong and we get a good snow with all this cold so we can see it stick around for a while. 

 

Looking on the bright side, the ground temps wont be an issue if we ever do see anything fall from the sky  over the next few weeks :)

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