Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Wrong!!! For all you know this occurs at night too early to be talking about ratios.

Ratios will be lower regardless if it is day or night.  The daytime warming will be enough to cut into any totals at night during this time of year.  Solar radiation can do quite a bit of surface heating this time of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said:

then cut that by 35% for ratios

I agree, it's going to be crap....beyond crap.

The only excitement I have regarding this event is it will probably look pretty cool as I take my 1-2 mile walk between 530-6:30am tomorrow morning. Probably decently heavy at that point.

I also made a bet w/myself that by 8pm Monday evening I won't see a drop of snow left...nothing. I may lay a $1000 on that...  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM gets next weekends snow threat back, but a tamer system more like tomorrow

 

Yea then another followup system on tuesday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thinking 1-2" tonight for most as opposed to 3-4" outside of n and w and elevated areas. I got to 60 today. I think we LL get a few hours of heavy rates but I don't know... One of these is bound to underperform.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picked the wrong time to cancel my wxbell subscription (4/3). Who would have guessed threats ould go well into April. Navigating weather.us less than convenient. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My 3:58pm WWA went down to 1-3" from 2-4" this morning. I think it's obvious being at 60F right now for it to drop to snow levels anytime soon meaning more rain before any changeover will occur...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wkd said:

Picked the wrong time to cancel my wxbell subscription (4/3). Who would have guessed threats ould go well into April. Navigating weather.us less than convenient. 

Lol I'm in the same boat. Never thought we'd have 3 snow threats not including tonight in the first week of April... Pretty crazy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Lol I'm in the same boat. Never thought we'd have 3 snow threats not including tonight in the first week of April... Pretty crazy

3 threats not including tonight? Their is tonight then next weekend then next Tuesday.  What other threat we talking about 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Lol I'm in the same boat. Never thought we'd have 3 snow threats not including tonight in the first week of April... Pretty crazy
Never say never. Neg AO and even a weakly neg NAO is how we score this time of year. We have both.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been riding the Euro with this one for 7 days now and see ZERO need to change ship. The euro and even euro control have simply not waivered....not one bit with the overall track and amounts tonight and Monday morning. About as consistent you will ever see. Will it be right? Or just consistently wrong? Im betting on the former. Hard to believe it given how gorgeous it is outside right now.
5585d0d74c69f9656cf3d9389212c0df.jpgf58a1c6358c7e26d2c9c776e0dca09b2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been riding the Euro with this one for 7 days now and see ZERO need to change ship. The euro and even euro control have simply not waivered....not one bit with the overall track and amounts tonight and Monday morning. About as consistent you will ever see. Will it be right? Or just consistently wrong? Im betting on the former. Hard to believe it given how gorgeous it is outside right now.
5585d0d74c69f9656cf3d9389212c0df.jpgf58a1c6358c7e26d2c9c776e0dca09b2.jpg

I'm tempted to agree. The euro holding serve once again is promising. I think we ll have a nice 2-3 hour period of heavy snow that will cave roads.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm tempted to agree. The euro holding serve once again is promising. I think we ll have a nice 2-3 hour period of heavy snow that will cave roads.

Hrrr and RGEM concur.....5-6" up this way. My expectations are set for 2" slush....anything more will be a bonus. Exceeding 3.6" will get me over 60" for the season.....within the realm of possibilities. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it didnt have the other support it does, I would say the GFS is having some April Fool's fun. Luckily it is the only model that bullseyes the region as other have some more wiggle room. Bullseye 6 days out in April doesnt make me comfy but this threat window has been open for a while now and this is 3 straight GFS runs now. April is the new March which is the new Feb apparently. Instead of daylight savings we will be flipping ahead and behind a month soon lol.63bd7a6c40aef91fe361711512da6de8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If it didnt have the other support it does, I would say the GFS is having some April Fool's fun. Luckily it is the only model that bullseyes the region as other have some more wiggle room. Bullseye 6 days out in April doesnt make me comfy but this threat window has been open for a while now and this is 3 straight GFS runs now. April is the new March which is the new Feb apparently. Instead of daylight savings we will be flipping ahead and behind a month soon lol.63bd7a6c40aef91fe361711512da6de8.jpg

If this verifies for April this would be an HECS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 18z GFS snowfall map for the entire northern half of the country I can't ever remember seeing  a snowier map this late in the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I agree, it's going to be crap....beyond crap.

The only excitement I have regarding this event is it will probably look pretty cool as I take my 1-2 mile walk between 530-6:30am tomorrow morning. Probably decently heavy at that point.

I also made a bet w/myself that by 8pm Monday evening I won't see a drop of snow left...nothing. I may lay a $1000 on that...  

Place the bet - it will make it even more exciting!  :lol: I'm thinking that if you get 3-4"or more you'll see some in some shady spots at least. Even then it might still all melt off by the next morning.

I'll enjoy it immensely if we can pull off 2" here. Did the spring cleanup deep tissue lawn blow out front yesterday so we're all ready!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Place the bet - it will make it even more exciting!  :lol: I'm thinking that if you get 3-4"or more you'll see some in some shady spots at least. Even then it might still all melt off by the next morning.

I'll enjoy it immensely if we can pull off 2" here. Did the spring cleanup deep tissue lawn blow out front yesterday so we're all ready!

All true....but if I only get 1-2" and it's done by 10am and the sun is out by -1pm I may win my own bet. But I am looking forward to seeing some snow fall in the 5am - 6am hours...may be the last one this year.

53.1F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×