Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Even rainfall is over performing this season. Predicted .25" or so for this event...at .41". Lasted longer than predicted as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Some Tuesday mood flakes...cuz nothing is gonna stickSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Some Tuesday mood flakes...cuz nothing is gonna stick Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk I have a feeling someone will bump this come Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6abc/Accu weather first call at 6pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Some Tuesday mood flakes...cuz nothing is gonna stickSent from my LG-H871 using TapatalkModels now showing the coastal being farther West with a bigger impact Monday night into Tuesday with the UL energy snows being an afterthought. 0z runs should be eye-opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12k NAM wants nothing to do with the CMC family of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Will likely come down to short range mesos tomorrow night and nowcasting. Still some fairly significant differences among guidance even at this short 24 hour lead time. Maybe we can score yet another overperforming surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Actually 0zs NAMrs take MSLP back to the east like 12z and give better spacing for follow up vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Actually 0zs NAMrs take MSLP back to the east like 12z and give better spacing for follow up vort pass. Exactly....CMC family says coastal farther West with more impact and less spacing, NAM goes the other way. Will be interesting to see who nails it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Picked up 0.32" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks like the CMC's were just a hiccup and the progressive more easterly solutions for the coastal low on other guidance will likely verify. UL energy pass early Tuesday should provide a short burst of snow for many with up to about an inch in general for most of SE PA. Late week "threat" following the progressive La Nina pattern of the winter and looking like merely a frontal passage.Still liking the period of Feb 10-16 for a more respectable winter weather opportunity. Something could pop prior to that as there are several transition fronts swinging thru but better opportunity should present itself in that period I noted as the Western ridge and eastern mean trofs align more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I see 2 more threats after tomorrow before the main period begins late next week. Anything we get from them should be counted as a bonus. I do think someone will be surprised from the IVT in our area though. Just looks like it will set up somewhere around here. I think c-2" region wide should be ok but someone will definitely see 2-4" under a very narrow band. As we get yet another nickle event, I wonder how many times we have finished normal or above normal with no 6+" events. I'm only 3 inches from doing so. Does not seem like a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Another take on Febs upcoming cold and *Possible* snow events - explained in detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 with the 12z suite more or less in besides uk and euro, I think c-2" is just about locked in across the board with a coating on grassy surfaces and maybe tables/cars being the most frequent accumulation. I don't think we even see a WWA unless Mt holly decides to do it due to the timing of the precip falling. There will be a surprise area that gets a few inches though as there always is with IVT events. The biggest thing this storm brings is the return of winter weather and a pattern that is only going to become more favorable as time progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: with the 12z suite more or less in besides uk and euro, I think c-2" is just about locked in across the board with a coating on grassy surfaces and maybe tables/cars being the most frequent accumulation. I don't think we even see a WWA unless Mt holly decides to do it due to the timing of the precip falling. There will be a surprise area that gets a few inches though as there always is with IVT events. The biggest thing this storm brings is the return of winter weather and a pattern that is only going to become more favorable as time progresses. Agreed, this is bonus snow, as we are supposed to be warm right now. I'm looking forward to Superbowl weekend adn beyond. (plus the Eagles will finally get a ring. - man i hope so ) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Expectation set at 1" after seeing the 12z euro Nickel and dime'n along here Who remembers winter of 2009? Similar size events then finally in February a 6" event which broke a streak of <6" snows going back to the blizzard in Feb 2006. Total for that winter imby was 28.25" needed that 6" storm to finish close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: Expectation set at 1" after seeing the 12z euro Nickel and dime'n along here Who remembers winter of 2009? Similar size events then finally in February a 6" event which broke a streak of <6" snows going back to the blizzard in Feb 2006. Total for that winter imby was 28.25" needed that 6" storm to finish close to normal. I was going to say this winter reminds me a little of 2009 but I think we are more like 14-15 except that we had a solid start this winter while that winter was a dud until the 2nd half. That winter had nothing until late january besides that cursed november storm but from late jan through mid march we nickled and dimed our way to normal or above normal in many places. That was an underrated winter even though we never got a big one(largest was 7-8" storm in march), we were active for a solid month and a half. Fingers crossed this upcoming pattern can perform similar and we will all be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Glenn not too enthused w/the event. He almost looked embarrassed to show his snowfall graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yeah, we're not getting much. I lowered my expectations to a solid coating on grassy surfaces... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 55 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn not too enthused w/the event. He almost looked embarrassed to show his snowfall graphic... Wait. Is that a decimal in front of the numbers? I can see why he'd be embarrassed. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Wait. Is that a decimal in front of the numbers? I can see why he'd be embarrassed. LOL Yep...It's pretty sad. Thing is when the anchors (don't know their names?) introduced his segment they made it sound serious saying, "So Glenn, how much can we expect and will the morning rush be impacted?" Glenn was like, here are the pathetic totals and it won't stick to the street...they will remain wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yep...It's pretty sad. Thing is when the anchors (don't know their names?) introduced his segment they made it sound serious saying, "So Glenn, how much can we expect and will the morning rush be impacted?" Glenn was like, here are the pathetic totals and it won't stick to the street...they will remain wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn not too enthused w/the event. He almost looked embarrassed to show his snowfall graphic... His snowfall graphic? It looks like some sort of model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, MGorse said: His snowfall graphic? It looks like some sort of model output. Or a combination? I'm sure it is...but really what's the point? And I bet many (older folks more so) thought it was 4" , 5" etc rather than four tenths and five tenths. (decimal point is small/graphics aren't the best) Overall I just would have said coating to 1" Philly and immediate burbs...maybe a little more in the distant N/W burbs. (Lehigh Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 roads around here are brined to ****. unreal for a coating of snow that will melt on contact regardless. such a waste of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: roads around here are brined to ****. unreal for a coating of snow that will melt on contact regardless. such a waste of money. Not only the cost of the product itself but the labor to put it down. In addition, along w/salt, screws up the cars undercarriage. I had to have a brake line replaced last year (rotted/pitted)...due to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I see 2 more threats after tomorrow before the main period begins late next week. Anything we get from them should be counted as a bonus. I do think someone will be surprised from the IVT in our area though. Just looks like it will set up somewhere around here. I think c-2" region wide should be ok but someone will definitely see 2-4" under a very narrow band. As we get yet another nickle event, I wonder how many times we have finished normal or above normal with no 6+" events. I'm only 3 inches from doing so. Does not seem like a common occurrence.Pattern change is coming in faster than modeled (for a change). Instead of the 2 threats you mentioned after today, I actually count 4 going into 2nd half of next week. Very active few weeks coming up. Today and Friday (rain to wet snow) are our transition systems and then we start building with Sunday being another fropa with light snow, a threat for a wave developing along the front Monday, then a followup on Tuesday. Still liking the Feb 10-16 period for something more substantial but I dont want to ignore the potential for a "pop-up" storm prior to that. Of course I will be vacationing in Wildwood from Super Bowl Sunday thru Tuesday PM so you guys up in SE PA will probably get hammered while Im in a cold rain. I enjoy "the shore" in the winter because of the desolation and escape from reality.....there is nobody around. My dream scenario is to be walking the boardwalk and/or the beach while it is snowing. I have yet to experience that as my trip planning has never coincided with snow at the SNJ shore points. I envy you guys that live there and sometimes have that opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pattern change is coming in faster than modeled (for a change). Instead of the 2 threats you mentioned after today, I actually count 4 going into 2nd half of next week. Very active few weeks coming up. Today and Friday (rain to wet snow) are our transition systems and then we start building with Sunday being another fropa with light snow, a threat for a wave developing along the front Monday, then a followup on Tuesday. Still liking the Feb 10-16 period for something more substantial but I dont want to ignore the potential for a "pop-up" storm prior to that. Of course I will be vacationing in Wildwood from Super Bowl Sunday thru Tuesday PM so you guys up in SE PA will probably get hammered while Im in a cold rain. I enjoy "the shore" in the winter because of the desolation and escape from reality.....there is nobody around. My dream scenario is to be walking the boardwalk and/or the beach while it is snowing. I have yet to experience that as my trip planning has never coincided with snow at the SNJ shore points. I envy you guys that live there and sometimes have that opportunity. Steve do you have a place down there or do you rent? If you own, you really need to plan a trip around a storm as opposed to the other way around there will definitely be another SNJ crusher in the probable near future where they get a ft and SE PA smokes cirrus. I expereienced boxing day in Toms River with my college roommate and it was so surreal heading into Seaside at the height of the storm with the ocean roaring and snow absolutely ripping. One of my top snow moments to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Steve do you have a place down there or do you rent? If you own, you really need to plan a trip around a storm as opposed to the other way around there will definitely be another SNJ crusher in the probable near future where they get a ft and SE PA smokes cirrus. I expereienced boxing day in Toms River with my college roommate and it was so surreal heading into Seaside at the height of the storm with the ocean roaring and snow absolutely ripping. One of my top snow moments to date.Parents live in Cape May but for my winter trip I always rent a room on Wildwood Boardwalk with a top floor balcony overlooking the ocean. Much cheaper this time of year and no crowd noise.....very relaxing! And yes, one of these times I will pay the parents a visit around a storm but they arent too hip to the idea of me being there and wife and kids at home if I get stuck down there. Wife cant take off work as easily and kids have school. Maybe next time I will just keep telling them "its going out to sea, dont believe the news" lol. Whoops looks like I was wrong and the TV weather was right oh darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Not only the cost of the product itself but the labor to put it down. In addition, along w/salt, screws up the cars undercarriage. I had to have a brake line replaced last year (rotted/pitted)...due to this. Got to put it down cause all it takes is one old lady to call and say she can't get out of her cul de sac. Anyway, Anything regarding Sunday's event that just popped up? Not happy I might have to work during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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