Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 0z euro OP not caving to the GFS Not sure I would trust the op runs 100% at this range though there has been some eye candy and crazy runs recently. Next Fri-Sun.(8th-10th) is definitely still piquing my interest. Both EPS and GEFS have upped snowfall mean for the area and signature is there for a light to moderate accum snowfall during that period. Serious challenges with all of the energy spinning and diving around the PV and that is evident on the ops. I could see several intermittent periods of varying snowfall rates Fri-Sun, I could see a Friday whiff to the S and E with a more potent coastal Sat-Sun, and I could see a 2- part light-moderate event. I dont think we are shutout in that period though still. Plenty of action and I dont believe its a matter of one model caving to another. We wont have a better handle until late Wednesday imo...too fast a NS flow and too much energy around for models to figure out which are the key players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Dont take verbatim but NAVGEM has a progressive and SE bias so I will just leave this here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gfs goes east, and cmc has a coastal scraper nowSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Going to be another winter it appears of model chaos can't trust ops or ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I never believe it is model chaos....just numerical models doing what they do. It is very rare any storm gets locked in and never moves 5 days before. Heck 3 days before the Blizzard of 96 the GFS had all snow staying south of PHL....just sayin Now if the Euro starts locking in on a storm 3 days before....I start paying attention. GFS is never a model I look to for accuracy till 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: I never believe it is model chaos....just numerical models doing what they do. It is very rare any storm gets locked in and never moves 5 days before. Heck 3 days before the Blizzard of 96 the GFS had all snow staying south of PHL....just sayin Now if the Euro starts locking in on a storm 3 days before....I start paying attention. GFS is never a model I look to for accuracy till 24 hours out Yes but some upper air patterns are more stable and predictive than others, last couple of winters models were all over the place in medium and long range every model run to run there are winters with more consistency. Then there is the euro which which acts like the GFS always did in the 5-7 day range dropping and losing storms it is not as consistent since some upgrades. That being said the ECM and CMC have not been gung ho on the weekend potential so maybe the best performers with the seasons first threat. Crankyweatherguy has booted the weekend snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 South Jersey and Delaware guys get a couple inches on the 12z euro comes in with a slight west adjustment today. Up here in Bucks i would be vaping cirrus edit - 8" in Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 ^ euro has two waves - Friday night then dumps more Saturday night-Sun long duration complicated setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Both the gfs and euro are now trying to key in on the second wave instead of the first. Oh what it's like to have winter back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Newman said: Both the gfs and euro are now trying to key in on the second wave instead of the first. Oh what it's like to have winter back lol Aaaaaand 18z GFS unhappy hour fulfills it's new name, yeah we are rocking in full mid Winter form in the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 39 minutes ago, RedSky said: Aaaaaand 18z GFS unhappy hour fulfills it's new name, yeah we are rocking in full mid Winter form in the first week. Yeah just saw that lol. As I posted earlier, though, last years trend was for storms to trend NW within 72 hours of it. That was likely due to the WAR being stronger than forecast, however, and I'm honestly not sure if this upcoming pattern has much similarity to the past couple of years with regards to the west atlantic ridge and it's vulnerability. Just remember 1.7.17 though, storm kept trending closer and closer even 24 hours out and even then the models didn't have the precip shield as far west as radar depicted when the "storm" arrived. I quote "storm" because I only received 1 inch from it so it wasn't much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 As I said earlier, Wednesday afternoon we should have a decent handle on how late week potential will play out. Several pieces in play irt how Friday wave might track....positioning and strength of WAR, strength/timing of followup energy behind front, Eastern trof amplitude in response to West Coast ridge. Few pros and a few cons....followup energy in OV is coming in much weaker and slower on global models which allows for spacing and also shouldn't push the front to the East as quickly. This is a positive that would possibly allow the wave to be closer to coast. WAR is showing up in various degrees of strength.....some guidance allows for the front (which the wave would ride up along) to move farther off the coast having little impact NW of the Delaware River. Other guidance is retrograding/building the WAR which allows for the front to hang up over the Gulf Stream creating a perfect baroclinic boundary (which actually makes sense) and gets light accumulating snow into parts of SE PA. Trof is broad and positioned too far East (barely) on the global ops yet the higher res guidance in their longer range are slightly more amplified. Toss in the GEFS/EPS which still get light snow into SE PA and you can see why being 4 days out several changes can happen based on any small differences in the key pieces noted above. Mix in the fact the NAVGEM just came in even farther West (which is usually progressive and S and E) and is actually rain along I95 and there is alot of uncertainty ahead. Doesnt look like a major event by any means but when you see some guidance tossing out advisory and even warning criteria totals (generally into South Jersey) it bears watching still. Lots of time to go here and Im certain we will see changes ahead on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 0z euro - loses both our waves weekend flurries. The flipping is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 hours ago, RedSky said: 0z euro - loses both our waves weekend flurries. The flipping is absurd. And that's exactly what I need right now since I am flying out to Phoenix Sunday morning and I'm relying on a wife who's terrified to drive in the snow to get me to the airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS shifted heaviest snow axis West and now has a swath of heavier accumulating snow along the Delaware River and just SE. Also increased max mean totals slightly in that band. Members still mixed with some shearing the slp giving only flurries and some grazing us with lighter accums. There are a handful of members that are much more robust and have a SECS look with higher amounts of accums in SE PA all the way back to York County which could be skewing the mean with the higher totals along the River. Plenty of uncertainty still. I wouldnt call it chaos, model mayhem, absurdity, or anything of that nature. The term I would use is 'complexity' due to amount of energy pouring into the developing trof......lots of timing and strength complexities which yield rather vast differences at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 AM low only 44.5 which is warmer than our normal high temp of 43.9. This will be the 5th day in a row with above normal temps and quite likely our last for possibly the rest of the year. Rain spreading in from the west this PM with the FROPA. Interesting times ahead Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Jeeze, I always forget how much I love tracking positive vs negative tilts!! Its so nice to be back. I love doing this so much. We got the cold, we got the energy, I would love to have this thing steer up into us. Even if its not much...I just am so happy to be tracking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Weekend threat is dead guys, pick up sticks and prepare to hike along to next Tues-wed for the next threat. We usually don't get snow in the early stages of a cold pattern change anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro still loves the people in the far southeast zones of this forum however, i will have my cirrus but Wildwood, Cape May still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro still loves the people in the far southeast zones of this forum however, i will have my cirrus but Wildwood, Cape May still in the game. At least she gives some light snow from the "clipper"Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: At least she gives some light snow from the "clipper" Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Isn't it amazing how the SE gets more snow winter after winter like there was a flip in the climate roughly ten years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro snows on the same SE areas only with next weeks threat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I would not be quick to write off the weekend threat. A shift of 50 miles NW would get pretty much all of SE PA in the game. These kind of events aren't exactly easily modeled in this time frame either. It could trend even further away but I would give it until tomorrow night before throwing in the towel. Who would want to be in the bullseye right now anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks like its time to move on to the Dec 13-14 threat. That looks like some energy could dive south of us and form along the coast, although Miller B's typically only workout for NYC on north. Prime example of that is the bust that I always bring up, the epic Jan 2015 bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Really thought this stuff would be pulling through in the 5pm range...looks like 6:30pm 7pm+....still out by Harrisburg or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Really not sure what to make of the Fri-Sun threat right now.....and neither do the models apparently. GFS is rather uneventful, GEFS shifted heavier band of mean snowfall west again thru Sunday, Euro op looks progressive maybe some mood flakes for SE PA, CMC is close for SE PA but mood flake material, NAM is focusing on later in the weekend and trying to brew something, JMA has a SECS Sunday, and the CRAS is trying for a triple phase overamped Miller A out of the Gulf. I wont be so fast to pass on the Dec 8-10 potential. Lots of possibilities. I will say I am leaning against Friday's wave having much if any impact in SE PA. Though areas in S Jersey could be in play. However now we are looking at BL temp issues possibly as the ana front CAA is having challenges pressing too far S and E. More interest in Sat-Sun for now. Still bears watching. Its still only Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 SREF just took a big jump West with precip for Friday and has accumulating snow well into SE PA. Meanwhile the NAM has a significant snowstorm for parts of the deep South and Gulf states....probably an historic event for many areas. Cant make this stuff up. This is why I enjoy tracking.....the suspense, the uncertainty, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: SREF just took a big jump West with precip for Friday and has accumulating snow well into SE PA. Meanwhile the NAM has a significant snowstorm for parts of the deep South and Gulf states....probably an historic event for many areas. Cant make this stuff up. This is why I enjoy tracking.....the suspense, the uncertainty, etc. How reliable are the SREF from this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: SREF just took a big jump West with precip for Friday and has accumulating snow well into SE PA. Meanwhile the NAM has a significant snowstorm for parts of the deep South and Gulf states....probably an historic event for many areas. Cant make this stuff up. This is why I enjoy tracking.....the suspense, the uncertainty, etc. At the very least it looks like some parts of the south could see snowflakes/flurries before our first flakes. Good for them. NAM is being pretty silly with the snow its outputting. I don't think south texas will see snow before we do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAVGEM just took a big jump west....snow into SE PA Friday but BL temps maybe an issue given the jump W. This is not a dead threat guys. All options from rain to accumulating snow to partly sunny Friday still on the table as well as threat later in the weekend. Just too many facets to the developing pattern influencing the forecast. Tons of energy plowing into the trof as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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