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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Seasonal trend....lose system or squash it 72-96 hours then slowly bring it back. We're the snow capital of the region this year....why not keep it going she (mother nature) said. Funny how many folks vanished here. I know it isn't January and I know many look at spring snow as a nuisance, but snow is snow and we get our spring snows with a neg NAO. This is one of those rare years we actually have that feature AND a neg AO to boot.

Hmmm.....Interesting!:lol: And at the same time yesterday was a bit of a shock, like oh yeah, I remember this kind of weather - let me go put shorts on. Can we like both? Sure!

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Philadelphia's average winter temperature was 36.9 this year...+1.3 from the 30 year average for 79-80 to 08-09...

1879-80 to 1888-89....34.0

1889-90 to 1898-99....34.7

1899-00 to 1908-09....33.9

1909-10 to 1918-19....34.7

1919-20 to 1928-29....35.3

1929-30 to 1938-39....36.7

1939-40 to 1948-49....33.2

1949-50 to 1958-59....35.7

1959-60 to 1968-69....31.8

1969-70 to 1978-79....33.2

1979-80 to 1988-89....33.6

1989-90 to 1998-99....36.7

1999-00 to 2008-09....35.6

2009-10 to 2016-17....36.5

 

1979-80 to 2008-09....35.3

1879-80 to 2008-09....34.5

 

2017-18....................36.9...

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All guidance now on board for a 1-3" grassy snow event Monday AM for Southern PA. UKIE is a mauling but likely an outlier tho guidance continues increasing overall qpf with every run so there's that. Maybe yet another late positive trending overperformer headed our way lol?

What do you mean by mauling how much does the Ukie show?

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4 minutes ago, ME_wannabe said:

How often do fronts move at this speed?

At 234 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Woodbury Heights to near Greenwich.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Thunderstorms typically move between 30 and 60 MPH.  

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UKMET, 3k NAM, EURO all in line now with a 3-6" event for SE PA. Do we cut those in half and go with 1-3" grassy surfaces? That's my feeling anyway but the mesos are showing some good banding with heavy rates for about 4-6 hours. Quick hitter during low light time of day. Tough call. Dont think the general public cares as long as it doesnt accumulate on road surfaces.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

UKMET, 3k NAM, EURO all in line now with a 3-6" event for SE PA. Do we cut those in half and go with 1-3" grassy surfaces? That's my feeling anyway but the mesos are showing some good banding with heavy rates for about 4-6 hours. Quick hitter during low light time of day. Tough call. Dont think the general public cares as long as it doesnt accumulate on road surfaces.

Appears it will be starting around 2am or so....so a better chance at stickage.

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