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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

0z GFS gives us a taste of New England next Monday

 Yeah sure Ohio lows that mix to lake Erie will always bring big snow here lol

 

Well have to say, the GFS and Euro have consistently had it. So has the Canadian, though more rainy with that. Tracking it with no pressure.

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H5 changed so much up until really the very end this last event that it is hard for me to get excited or depressed on anything a model is showing over 5 days because you know things will change and change singificantly in the coming days. I like the threat right now though and think the odds we see another low get suppressed that far in late March without historical blocking is highly highly unlikely. We have blocking but not to the order that this thing is a DC special in late March. So imo my biggest worry is this coming too far north and being a rainmaker for most.

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H5 changed so much up until really the very end this last event that it is hard for me to get excited or depressed on anything a model is showing over 5 days because you know things will change and change singificantly in the coming days. I like the threat right now though and think the odds we see another low get suppressed that far in late March without historical blocking is highly highly unlikely. We have blocking but not to the order that this thing is a DC special in late March. So imo my biggest worry is this coming too far north and being a rainmaker for most.
My thoughts as well especially given the dampening out of the NAO ridge and the 50/50 moving out.
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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
H5 changed so much up until really the very end this last event that it is hard for me to get excited or depressed on anything a model is showing over 5 days because you know things will change and change singificantly in the coming days. I like the threat right now though and think the odds we see another low get suppressed that far in late March without historical blocking is highly highly unlikely. We have blocking but not to the order that this thing is a DC special in late March. So imo my biggest worry is this coming too far north and being a rainmaker for most.

My thoughts as well especially given the dampening out of the NAO ridge and the 50/50 moving out.

I'm getting a NW/Elevation event vibe after last nights models. The NAO ridge not as strong, 50/50 moving out, this has all the signs for a 95 rainmaker at the moment :lol: but like I said it's hard to take anything seriously outside 120 hours because even inside that there have been massive changes. Don't think we'll have any idea until that time period.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
16 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
H5 changed so much up until really the very end this last event that it is hard for me to get excited or depressed on anything a model is showing over 5 days because you know things will change and change singificantly in the coming days. I like the threat right now though and think the odds we see another low get suppressed that far in late March without historical blocking is highly highly unlikely. We have blocking but not to the order that this thing is a DC special in late March. So imo my biggest worry is this coming too far north and being a rainmaker for most.

My thoughts as well especially given the dampening out of the NAO ridge and the 50/50 moving out.

Agree with all of this, especially with the "seasonal trend" of model inconsistency (gfs, euro, ukie; globals vs meso's; individual model's run-to-run) up until 24 hours before the event. Also, save the last storm (despite Euro winning with the most east solution), there has been a last minute N, NW correction also in the final runs. Finally, we are in the period where models for whatever reason tend to 'lose' storms, only to bring them back in the next few days. Whether this one comes back or not is yet to be seen, but it seems likely we are getting *something* falling from the sky on Monday, we just simply don't know what or how much...yet.

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Regardless of rain or snow, the threat I am most concerned about is flooding towards the end of the month. The models are pretty unanimous in keeping an active pattern through the end of the month bringing several large scale synoptic events through. If we get 2 wide spread 1-2" rain events before the month is out, rivers and streams are going to be running very very high. The ground is already very saturated and all of the snow has yet to melt. If we don't see snow these next few threats, this will definitely be something to watch. The Delaware river is already running pretty high.

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I'm getting a NW/Elevation event vibe after last nights models. The NAO ridge not as strong, 50/50 moving out, this has all the signs for a 95 rainmaker at the moment  but like I said it's hard to take anything seriously outside 120 hours because even inside that there have been massive changes. Don't think we'll have any idea until that time period.
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I'm getting a NW/Elevation event vibe after last nights models. The NAO ridge not as strong, 50/50 moving out, this has all the signs for a 95 rainmaker at the moment  but like I said it's hard to take anything seriously outside 120 hours because even inside that there have been massive changes. Don't think we'll have any idea until that time period.
Yep, some guidance is even nixing the coastal idea now and going straight cutter well up into the Ohio Valley. Probably overdone but the NAO ridge we were pinning hopes on is eroding much faster than anticipated. Might still come back later in the month but by that point, meh. Some are suggesting that the March 21 event is now the Archambault you were looking at for months end. Would probably be another NE clobbering if it verifies but we'll see I guess. After all, Easter is in 2 weeks and NCAA brackets season is here so that in and of itself speaks volumes usually.
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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
23 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
I'm getting a NW/Elevation event vibe after last nights models. The NAO ridge not as strong, 50/50 moving out, this has all the signs for a 95 rainmaker at the moment emoji38.png but like I said it's hard to take anything seriously outside 120 hours because even inside that there have been massive changes. Don't think we'll have any idea until that time period.

Yep, some guidance is even nixing the coastal idea now and going straight cutter well up into the Ohio Valley. Probably overdone but the NAO ridge we were pinning hopes on is eroding much faster than anticipated. Might still come back later in the month but by that point, meh. Some are suggesting that the March 21 event is now the Archambault you were looking at for months end. Would probably be another NE clobbering if it verifies but we'll see I guess. After all, Easter is in 2 weeks and NCAA brackets season is here so that in and of itself speaks volumes usually.

I promised myself after last years mid march failure that I would never track a winter event after March 14th ever again because they will fail miserably 9 times out of 10 even if they look perfect going into the event. But here I am... :lol:

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I was reading the SNE forum and found a great post by Typhoon Tip(pro met up there) regarding next weeks threat. It isn't region specific so I thought I would post it here. Really good post.

 

Quote

Depends on what one is thinking when they use the adjective "warm" to describe what is becoming increasingly more possible per passing model cycle for yet another in a steady diet of coastal storms - this next one centered roughly on March 20th.

NCEP: "...THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD WHILE LOCATIONS FROM FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PROPORTION OF RAIN VS SNOW BASED ON SURFACE LOW TRACK SPREAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER STORM THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND/PRECIP EFFECTS TO AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST. ..."

If by warm, one is thinking rain... while I would not outright discount that possibility as a show of respect and acknowledgement to March climatology ... for this particular system/hemispheric circumstance governing, even at this far out in time (D 6.5), the correction vector is pointed toward colder system types.  That's per larger mass-field (tele's) arguments combined with trends ..et al. It is getting late in the year, and fact of the matter is... and yes, the sun is passing over the Equator on that day which ... for spatial homage is like September 20th - imagine that..?   

That said, I have seen blowing snow at 1 pm as late as April 11 before. But, drama aside, the NAO is not going anywhere (I don't believe).  The west based nature of the block may at times appear to be dissolved (and I don't buy the 00z Euro's notion of summer south of the Mason Dixie D9+) but the vestigial tendency for it is still being placed there by the hemispheric circulation overall...such that given the smallest reason to reestablish its self, it does.  You can see this in occasional operational guidance cycles...  But, it's not just the NAO really..? It's really the entire collar of the 60th parallel around the hemisphere having that tendency...probably keyed into the general (though slowly recovering) -AO.  The Euro in fact has a -3 EPO suddenly...actually the GEFs have that index, WPO too for that matter, both tanking over the next week.  AA phases of the N. Pacific don't tend to parlay to warm Marches - too early for that. 

Anyway... the short version is that yet another winter storm is possible if not likely early to mid next week.  Right now...I'd lean moderate potency and probably average size (in terms of areal coverage)?  But that could certainly change.  I would also lean colder on the N arc and probably colder than the models would resolve at this lead. 

Also... some 9 GEFs members from 00z out of the 12 I saw have significant cyclones depicted, perhaps lending confidence. We seem to be locked into a weekly periodicity and regular oscillatory behavior is not that uncommon during in situ patterns.  Until we lose that 60 N tendency for blocking nodes, I suggest the base canvas has not changed. A circumstance that I think fades until diabatic wash really finally beats the season to death ...I dunno, first week of April.   That doesn't mean we're guaranteed of course.. but until that becomes more evidence, we probably have actionable atrocities to the spring/warm weather enthusiasts.

Probably could use excerpts of this post to start a thread actually ... but, someone else do it - I did the last three. 

 

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12z GFS trended better for the day 6/7 storm. More confluence/stronger high pressure/50-50 low not racing away as quick. Surface low jumped about 150 miles south of 6z which imo is what is going to happen until we get closer. The models won't be close to correct for confluence at this range and if the seasonal trend means anything, an amped up solution to our west with the blocking we have in place just does not seem likely. Won't be surprised if this continues to trend flatter/weaker as has been the case most of this winter. But too flat/weak and we are sheared harmlessly OTS or end up with a storm like yesterday that phases too late. Then there is the fact that the cold air, while abnormally cold, is decaying as the storm moves in. I still am favoring a NW/interior event at this time but there were good signs on that OP run for a snow storm if the trends shown continue. It's hard not to get invested or give up with each model suite but in the current pattern, the models have shown they are struggling majorly with NS features in the medium range. Obviously anyone can say it likely won't snow and be correct because it will be late March but I don't know how anyone can say anything definitive right now when the next 36 hours of OP runs will likely be all over the place. I won't really begin getting serious about those runs until Friday 12z, Obviously we want every model to show a blizzard every run but it just is not likely for any model to hold the same solution every 6 hours over the next few days. I do think the models are breaking the -NAO down too quickly though imo

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12z CMC folded like a cheap suit from 00z. Isn't even worth comparing because they are so radically different :lol: But it is very similar to the GFS but honestly looks even better towards a snow event for even 95. Verbatim it is super close for snow even down to PHL but if H5 is correct(which it isn't), it would argue for a further south track imo and that would be all snow for most. Good trends thus far. Will have to see if the euro also comes in less amped.

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GFS continues to print out ~3" of QPF over the next 2 weeks region wide. Rain sleet or snow that would likely cause area rivers to flood. If April is even as wet as normal, we could be in for some serious flooding in the coming weeks especially since there are not really signs that we go into a dry pattern any time soon. The latest CFS monthlies were above normal precip for april and may. I believe the euro weeklies were wet through mid april as well. Something definitely to keep an eye on besides the snow threats.

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Really have nothing to add which hasn't already been said regarding our "possible future event". But it definitely has that "winter feel outside" currently with wind, more clouds, 37.4 and maybe some snow showers/squalls moving down later on.

* Side note: With all the stuff going on this week w/the Birds (Free agency/trades)...then March madness...if we get screwed completely, it won't bother me "that" much. Below average temps are here and wind...screw Spring.

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12z euro does a complete 180 as well from 00z. Pretty solid agreement actually from the globals. We have a primary low approaching from the SW that dies out and a coastal takes over. If the NAO can stay negative, I really like our chances for at least a good WAA thump. Not focused on R/S line this far out but the general trend at 12z has been very good for a winter event even towards 95. 

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z euro does a complete 180 as well from 00z. Pretty solid agreement actually from the globals. We have a primary low approaching from the SW that dies out and a coastal takes over. If the NAO can stay negative, I really like our chances for at least a good WAA thump. Not focused on R/S line this far out but the general trend at 12z has been very good for a winter event even towards 95. 

Do we get any snow on the Euro? Or too warm for the whole region?

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2 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Do we get any snow on the Euro? Or too warm for the whole region?

Looks like upper bucks and montco N and W see a solid WAA thump then frz rain. verbatim too warm for 95 but it is very very close. It wouldn't take much at all for this to be snow to ice or all snow for everyone besides maybe the immediate coast. The evolution looks like a long duration WAA event transitioning to a miller B like PD2 except we do not have nearly the arctic air mass that pd2 had and this storm will be much stronger than PD2. We need the NAO to stay negative so the primary does drive too far up the Ohio valley. That will be the key for this storm.

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1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

Indeed. The slopes should be good thru April. 

Models say another 3 inches tonight.  Maybe more, crazy rates right now. 

Dunno if this area can handle another big one.  20th , 21st...?     over 4 feet otg..crazy ?

We'd be happy to help out down this way - probably won't clarify until the weekend.

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Indeed. The slopes should be good thru April. 

Models say another 3 inches tonight.  Maybe more, crazy rates right now. 

Dunno if this area can handle another big one.  20th , 21st...?     over 4 feet otg..crazy ?

 

I just checked my cabin cams. Wow

 

I’m near boulder....top of a mountain 2100ft. Where are you in the poconos?

 

Been a while since I have seen such a wintry march both at the shore and poconos. Looks like 5 inch mark should be breached very soon, for the day. Currently 23F with Snow.

 

Trying to shuffle plans for a fun weekend at the cabin.☃️

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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