The Iceman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Looks like after tomorrow night's coastal we should begin to ease into spring. With the really wet last 6 weeks it will be interesting to see if we have flooding threats on the big water ways in the coming month. One widespread 2" rain storm would probably be enough to cause serious issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like after tomorrow night's coastal we should begin to ease into spring. With the really wet last 6 weeks it will be interesting to see if we have flooding threats on the big water ways in the coming month. One widespread 2" rain storm would probably be enough to cause serious issues. The ground is completely saturated with a decent snow pack still to melt. A big rain storm would be pretty bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Should be a very green spring with the ground nicely saturated....when the warmth finally kicks in! Not gonna be double last year but a big increase 40" vs 24"...still not convinced we don't see one more wet snow event before the end of the 1st week of April especially in higher spots like out this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looking ahead it looks that winter is far from dead in the long range. After a very brief warm up this weekend, the -NAO reloads and a trough is centered over the east through late month on pretty much all the ensemble guidance. Even OP guidance has several threats in the LR. Right now I'm liking the 20-22nd range for a coastal storm that could bring snow for most of the region and an archambault event in the 27-29th period that may bring late snow as well. Really liking what I'm seeing as we head towards spring. Obviously we will have temp issues and timing issues with every threat now which is an added dimension but the prospects looks pretty good for more dynamic coastal storms that can produce snow. The pattern going forward looks better for a big time event than at any point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Have a good feeling after looking at guidance and global teleconnections for the period March 20-22. Iceman, you might need to fire up a thread soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Ha! Just read your (Iceman) post above. Like the EE rule, we both agree on that period. lock it up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Weeklies are ridonkulous....-nao theme thru week 6 (tries to go neutral week 3 before reloading the pattern) with BN temps thru the entire 6 week period (near normal towards tail end) and generally AN precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 All 3 major ens familes on-board with lp area on the means near the area centered near March 21. GEFS/EPS keep storm track favorable sliding lp just S and E off the Mid Atl -> NE Coast.....GEPS storm track closer. Not worth getting too mich more into details at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 From earthlight: "You will continue to hear people say "this is the last threat" in this type of pattern and they will continue to be wrong." Around March 21st looks like the next threat for a big storm. Last night's Euro dropped the mic for that storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 with this last event I'm now up to 34.1" on the year...over 10" above normal. If we get another SECS this month, then this winter may make a run into the top 5 winters in my lifetime(1990-1991 was first winter). 09-10, 95-96, 13-14, 02-03, 10-11 is the current top 5. Would need around a foot snowstorm to get in the conversation...insane that 3 of the 5 are in this decade... we've done well in even bad winters this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: with this last event I'm now up to 34.1" on the year...over 10" above normal. If we get another SECS this month, then this winter may make a run into the top 5 winters in my lifetime(1990-1991 was first winter). 09-10, 95-96, 13-14, 02-03, 10-11 is the current top 5. Would need around a foot snowstorm to get in the conversation...insane that 3 of the 5 are in this decade... we've done well in even bad winters this decade. But it feels like a heavily tarnished win, just like I recorded 20" last winter with 13" coming in March. But it looks great on paper so there's that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Looking likely i move to eastern Monmouth County this spring, bye bye land of no death bands ever. If history repeats this could be a disaster for Monmouth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: But it feels like a heavily tarnished win, just like I recorded 20" last winter with 13" coming in March. But it looks great on paper so there's that.. Yeah last winter was a stinker on par with some of the all time stinkers imo but we lucked out in March and made our totals respectable... I finished like 2" BN snow wise but it felt like I had finished 12" BN especially since I thought I was a lock to get to normal heading into the Great March Failstorm of 2017 since I only needed like 7 inches and the forecast was 16-24"... Crappy ending on a crappy winter yet historically it was about average around here. I'm going to calculate a 25 year average after this season because I believe it is pretty clear that our winter climate has been changing especially from 2000 onward. The trend lately is for more evenly distributed snowfall averages region wide IMO... obviously there are always going to be differences in snowfall due to geography but it definitely seems like there aren't nearly as many rain for the coast/snow for the interior events as in the past. Those borderline events where ABE would get crushed while PHL rains just don't seem to occur that often anymore...now it seems that if PHL rains, usually ABE will rain at some point as well. Also, KU storms are hitting with much more frequency than in the past where the coast does better than the interior so while the interior still does better in those borderline 3-6" snow events, the coast is able to catch up by getting a foot while N and W smokes cirrus or gets 4". I mean just look at this year...I'm at 34" and you're at 40" but if you look at each event, very rarely did either of us do great in the same event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looking likely i move to eastern Monmouth County this spring, bye bye land of no death bands ever. If history repeats this could be a disaster for Monmouth lol N and W winter locked for the next 10 years now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 43 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looking likely i move to eastern Monmouth County this spring, bye bye land of no death bands ever. If history repeats this could be a disaster for Monmouth lol NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Euro still has the day 8 snowstorm. Right now it favors the MA more (which is nice for them), but you know what they say about being in the bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Looking likely i move to eastern Monmouth County this spring, bye bye land of no death bands ever. If history repeats this could be a disaster for Monmouth lol There is an application process and a required annual contribution toward the energy bill associated with running the snow magnets. Knowing your luck, we will have to do a county wide special assessment to cover the cost of increasing the power of our beloved innovation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah last winter was a stinker on par with some of the all time stinkers imo but we lucked out in March and made our totals respectable... I finished like 2" BN snow wise but it felt like I had finished 12" BN especially since I thought I was a lock to get to normal heading into the Great March Failstorm of 2017 since I only needed like 7 inches and the forecast was 16-24"... Crappy ending on a crappy winter yet historically it was about average around here. I'm going to calculate a 25 year average after this season because I believe it is pretty clear that our winter climate is changing for snowfall towards a more evenly distributed average region wide IMO... obviously there are always going to be differences in snowfall due to geography but it definitely seems like there aren't nearly as many rain for the coast/snow for the interior events as in the past. Those borderline events where ABE would get crushed while PHL rains just don't seem to occur that often anymore...now it seems that if PHL rains, usually ABE will rain at some point as well. Also, KU storms are hitting with much more frequency than in the past where the coast does better than the interior so while the interior still does better in those borderline 3-6" snow events, the coast is able to catch up by getting a foot while N and W smokes cirrus or gets 4". I mean just look at this year...I'm at 34" and you're at 40" but if you look at each event, very rarely did either of us do great in the same event. To vastly over simplify something that I am sure climate scientists could write biblical size studies on, imo stronger low pressure storms off the coast with tighter cores have been pulling the cold levels to the coast like the core of a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, SP said: There is an application process and a required annual contribution toward the energy bill associated with running the snow magnets. Knowing your luck, we will have to do a county wide special assessment to cover the cost of increasing the power of our beloved innovation. Cold fusion bro, cold fusion is the answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: Cold fusion bro, cold fusion is the answer That would do the trick. Heck it could bring on another 2009/2010. It was like driving around Tahoe City around here. Where did all the street signs go??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Glenn honking a bit for next week...not like him really this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, RedSky said: To vastly over simplify something that I am sure climate scientists could write biblical size studies on, imo stronger low pressure storms off the coast with tighter cores have been pulling the cold levels to the coast like the core of a hurricane. I was out for a walk last night with very light rain.....winds began to stir and these gusts blasted DOWN almost like a micro burst. The air was notably COLD and sort of shocking to the system at first. After a few of these blasts, a large lasting gust arrived and the air was instantly filled with snow. The directional assault by the winds was very cool as the gusts seemed to hit from various directions just before the burst that brought in snow. My first thought was vortex.....weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn honking a bit for next week...not like him really this early. Weather girl would have said sunny and 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Weather girl would have said sunny and 55 She'll biecth and wine because Spring starts next Tuesday...oh boy, that would put her in her place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 hours ago, The Iceman said: Yeah last winter was a stinker on par with some of the all time stinkers imo but we lucked out in March and made our totals respectable... I finished like 2" BN snow wise but it felt like I had finished 12" BN especially since I thought I was a lock to get to normal heading into the Great March Failstorm of 2017 since I only needed like 7 inches and the forecast was 16-24"... Crappy ending on a crappy winter yet historically it was about average around here. I'm going to calculate a 25 year average after this season because I believe it is pretty clear that our winter climate has been changing especially from 2000 onward. The trend lately is for more evenly distributed snowfall averages region wide IMO... obviously there are always going to be differences in snowfall due to geography but it definitely seems like there aren't nearly as many rain for the coast/snow for the interior events as in the past. Those borderline events where ABE would get crushed while PHL rains just don't seem to occur that often anymore...now it seems that if PHL rains, usually ABE will rain at some point as well. Also, KU storms are hitting with much more frequency than in the past where the coast does better than the interior so while the interior still does better in those borderline 3-6" snow events, the coast is able to catch up by getting a foot while N and W smokes cirrus or gets 4". I mean just look at this year...I'm at 34" and you're at 40" but if you look at each event, very rarely did either of us do great in the same event. Growing up 20 miles NW of Philly, it seemed more often than not the snowfall was 50% higher than what was measured in Philadelphia. Feb. 1983 was the first time I recall PHL (21.3") getting almost as much as out in the burbs (23") - it seemed almost not right, lol, like something was out of wack. 1996 was the next one with a similar result. I remember Christmas Eve 1966 (ah yes) PHL got around 12" and we got 20", and that was not at all unusual (the ratio, not the 20"). So yes, something seems to have changed, or maybe it's just part of some not yet understood long wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 hours ago, SP said: There is an application process and a required annual contribution toward the energy bill associated with running the snow magnets. Knowing your luck, we will have to do a county wide special assessment to cover the cost of increasing the power of our beloved innovation. Heck I was wondering if you needed an invitation/screening process, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 hours ago, SP said: I was out for a walk last night with very light rain.....winds began to stir and these gusts blasted DOWN almost like a micro burst. The air was notably COLD and sort of shocking to the system at first. After a few of these blasts, a large lasting gust arrived and the air was instantly filled with snow. The directional assault by the winds was very cool as the gusts seemed to hit from various directions just before the burst that brought in snow. My first thought was vortex.....weird. Interesting, I was watching the radar last night sitting outside with my wife and we were in a radar hole that was closing up, and a couple of larger gusts came up, and I said "that wind's from the wall of snow coming in from both sides, like a downdraft in a heavy thunderstorm", lol. I was joking but it's a cool concept, and it did start snowing soon (5 minutes) afterwards, lightly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Interesting, I was watching the radar last night sitting outside with my wife and we were in a radar hole that was closing up, and a couple of larger gusts came up, and I said "that wind's from the wall of snow coming in from both sides, like a downdraft in a heavy thunderstorm", lol. I was joking but it's a cool concept, and it did start snowing soon (5 minutes) afterwards, lightly . That's why we dig it all so much. Been that way since 7 years of age and will never change. Wish I had the time for the study. Such an amazing field and from many aspects. What you described is right in line with my experience. For a geek like me it was a cool moment. Like a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Those guys NW of Boston right now and this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 0z GFS gives us a taste of New England next Monday Yeah sure Ohio lows that mix to lake Erie will always bring big snow here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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