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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Nothing but wet torches showing up for the mid month "favorable" period.
 
Strongly disagree. Are we on the line so to speak? Sure, as always. But "wet torches"? I dont see that at all.

The look for the Feb 10-16 period continues to evolve favorably....particularly as you move ahead in the time frame. This is a look that can produce.....HP sprawled out along the Canada/US border across the entire country, waves of LP along the Southern tier ejecting out from the SW cutoff h5 low. Strong CAD signal showing up on guidance now as well. More of a snow or ice signal than a wet torch imo.fbc8c9218cfa67466abf6ef74b01557c.jpg
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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strongly disagree. Are we on the line so to speak? Sure, as always. But "wet torches"? I dont see that at all.

The look for the Feb 10-16 period continues to evolve favorably....particularly as you move ahead in the time frame. This is a look that can produce.....HP sprawled out along the Canada/US border across the entire country, waves of LP along the Southern tier ejecting out from the SW cutoff h5 low. Strong CAD signal showing up on guidance now as well. More of a snow or ice signal than a wet torch imo.fbc8c9218cfa67466abf6ef74b01557c.jpg

Wait a minute i know im not imagining this. I could swear you just made a comment the other day we were probably done with accumulating snow this winter

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Wait a minute i know im not imagining this. I could swear you just made a comment the other day we were probably done with accumulating snow this winter

Again, I NEVER said that. The posts are above to prove it. I said "if you believe the LR guidance"....I did not make any definitive first person statement declaring what you claim I said. Go back and also look for 3 weeks now I have been talking about the Feb 10-16 period. Why would make a call like that and then pop on and cancel winter when medium range guidance is honking for next week?

 

If you want to troll, take it to PM, I will gladly discuss there.

 

Anyway how can we not like this potential setup?51fa503b68071032fc123851c6099b0b.jpg&key=fbd7ff9641e28ecb1e32b3414c9ed997a0e48a756e45ac3b64fe9fcd5147300e

 

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On 2/5/2018 at 7:00 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the snow Gods heard our prayers and sent us the Super Bowl in sacrifice of snow. Looks like we are done for accum snow this winter (phl immediate bjrbs s and e) if u believe the LR stuff and an early start to spring.

 

??????read what you wrote here dude. Im not trolling. Joke or not you said it

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2/24-3/10 (About a 3 week period) will produce our biggest snowfall of the year. 

- A rather rare SSWE that will influence the weather pattern with only a 1-2 week lag rather than a month lag

- The PV will be displaced south and although it won't be well entrenched south, it will be good enough for our region

- Negative AO and NAO currently being forecasted by long range models AND are supported due to -AAM and other influences

- MJO transitioning into 8-1-2 will help the Pacific side

Overall, the biggest sign pointing towards a possible storm is the development of high latitude blocking. Does it guarantee a storm? No, but it will help "trap" the negative departures into our areas. Also, the -NAO will be a welcomed site not seen predominately since 09-10 and will help back the flow and shorten the wavelengths. So, enjoy the break we have now because I don't think we'll be getting much sleep later this month :)

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55 minutes ago, Newman said:

2/24-3/10 (About a 3 week period) will produce our biggest snowfall of the year. 

- A rather rare SSWE that will influence the weather pattern with only a 1-2 week lag rather than a month lag

- The PV will be displaced south and although it won't be well entrenched south, it will be good enough for our region

- Negative AO and NAO currently being forecasted by long range models AND are supported due to -AAM and other influences

- MJO transitioning into 8-1-2 will help the Pacific side

Overall, the biggest sign pointing towards a possible storm is the development of high latitude blocking. Does it guarantee a storm? No, but it will help "trap" the negative departures into our areas. Also, the -NAO will be a welcomed site not seen predominately since 09-10 and will help back the flow and shorten the wavelengths. So, enjoy the break we have now because I don't think we'll be getting much sleep later this month :)

Sigh this has growing support for at least cold weather when I am ready for spring.

 

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2/24-3/10 (About a 3 week period) will produce our biggest snowfall of the year. 
- A rather rare SSWE that will influence the weather pattern with only a 1-2 week lag rather than a month lag
- The PV will be displaced south and although it won't be well entrenched south, it will be good enough for our region
- Negative AO and NAO currently being forecasted by long range models AND are supported due to -AAM and other influences
- MJO transitioning into 8-1-2 will help the Pacific side
Overall, the biggest sign pointing towards a possible storm is the development of high latitude blocking. Does it guarantee a storm? No, but it will help "trap" the negative departures into our areas. Also, the -NAO will be a welcomed site not seen predominately since 09-10 and will help back the flow and shorten the wavelengths. So, enjoy the break we have now because I don't think we'll be getting much sleep later this month
Im seeing alot of conflicting signals in the LR but I hope your thoughts are correct. However, we saw an 'epic' pattern as many referred to it back in late Dec into early Jan and all we had to show for it really was frigid cold and some very minor events. If its one thing this season has taught me is that favorable looking patterns on paper dont always produce. I've always known just how hard it is to actually get a snowstorm even though many of us have been spoiled over the past 10 years with some biggies. We would probably have the best shot at something as this season winds down with a convoluted setup via some extreme HL blocking. Maybe that period/pattern you noted will be what the doctor ordered.
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38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hoping this isnt another season where my bulbs start to flower then get decimated with frigid temps and wintry precip.

I don't think it will be, certainly not like last year anyway. February 2017 at PHL had 16 days at or above 50F for the high, including (4) in the 60's and (4) in the 70's - quite the setup for March and the mid-month freeze which followed. Alot of plant life got nipped in the bud early. This year won't be anything like that, which is fine with me. I start to get impatient for spring around now with no snow on the ground or in the immediate forecast, plus a bit of cabin fever in there too. However, seeing possibilities just around the corner helps to pass the time (we've had some practice with that this winter for sure!). I love the spring, but I'll always take March snow :snowman:.

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9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im seeing alot of conflicting signals in the LR but I hope your thoughts are correct. However, we saw an 'epic' pattern as many referred to it back in late Dec into early Jan and all we had to show for it really was frigid cold and some very minor events. If its one thing this season has taught me is that favorable looking patterns on paper dont always produce. I've always known just how hard it is to actually get a snowstorm even though many of us have been spoiled over the past 10 years with some biggies. We would probably have the best shot at something as this season winds down with a convoluted setup via some extreme HL blocking. Maybe that period/pattern you noted will be what the doctor ordered.

This winter hasn't thrown us a classic Nina pattern, but the lack of a true southern jet has helped contribute to a lack of snowstorms, or at least it seems that way. That's also why a lot of the storms on guidance trended into northern stream, weak fronts. Nothing from the south to phase with and results in the minor clipper events, as you alluded to, even in the favorable periods including back in December-January. With the possible -NAO, -AO, and MJO into phases 8-1-2, we should be able to get a trough into the east and high latitude blocking will lock it there, potentially transient, but hopefully locked for a couple weeks. 

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It is amazing this season how many times we have seen a promising pattern appear on all LR ens only to fizzle out under 180 hours. Next week looks like yet another example of this. The period I was originally keying on is looking less favorable, no doubt. I was not expecting the SER to flex 'as much' as models are now indicating. Looked at first as though it would act as a steering mechanism to force moisture N into our region as the progressive NS helped to keep the cold locked in but now we are seeing the reverse signal (stronger ser/weaker ns) with the boundary setting up farther N. Still a chance I suppose, but fading. Peak climo is passing us by quickly......hopefully the 3 week period Newman is keying on can produce.

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Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 

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Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 
Several modeling tools are signaling what you mentioned with trof in Russia/Asia and ridging in N AM. There are a few outlets jumping on this and going with an early spring for us. I wouldnt mind March fishing in a light jacket this year as opposed to tundra gear like the past few tbh.
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3 hours ago, Newman said:

This winter hasn't thrown us a classic Nina pattern, but the lack of a true southern jet has helped contribute to a lack of snowstorms, or at least it seems that way.

Actually it has - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/how-el-niño-and-la-niña-affect-winter-jet-stream-and-us-climate

In either scenario, we tend to often be in the "50/50" category vs those farther north or farther south.  CPC is anticipating a move towards ENSO neutral per their latest discussion - http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Ninos_ninafirst_620.jpg

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
4 hours ago, Newman said:
Although the SSWE looks fairly impressive, one thing I would be worried about is the split causing the blocking to occur in Russia/Asia and then eventually retrograding into our areas. If that occurs, a total Northern Hemisphere shift will need to occur and we'll be looking at the blocking not forming until mid March (about a month lag). 

Several modeling tools are signaling what you mentioned with trof in Russia/Asia and ridging in N AM. There are a few outlets jumping on this and going with an early spring for us. I wouldnt mind March fishing in a light jacket this year as opposed to tundra gear like the past few tbh.

I wouldn't mind an early spring as well. By March, I'm ready for severe weather season and golfing. I like snow whenever we get it, but March/April snowstorms don't have the same feel as they do in January/February.

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10 minutes ago, Newman said:

I wouldn't mind an early spring as well. By March, I'm ready for severe weather season and golfing. I like snow whenever we get it, but March/April snowstorms don't have the same feel as they do in January/February.

March/April snowstorms are absolutely depressing to me. By March I am in full spring warmth mode. The only positive is that any late season snows tend to melt rather quickly under a stronger sun.

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So far today 0.62" of rain - for the MTD we are at 2.96" of water equiv which is 1.76" above normal. YTD we are at 5.49" or 0.49" above normal through today. The good news is WXSIM forecasts another 3.39" by Monday AM. That would be great for the Township farmers as we are well below normal over the last 18 months. 

Best news of all is pitchers and catchers report next week - Go Phils!!

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