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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah I'm pretty sure he was in the same situation..you can draw an almost straight diagonal line from my house to his across bucks co and the flizzard slid right along the south of that line :lol:  

You may get this little blob moving down as a consolation prize...

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44 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Flurries/snow shower again....Rd 2 quick hitter...woohoo!

lol...what a year of small stuff/nickel and dime events. Really would like one 6+ event to close out this winter. But in reality I think we'll see more small events or snow--->rain, rain---->snow type things.

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yep now that we no longer are lacking precipitation events, we don't have the arctic air mass in place and do not have any blocking so most events will have us on the battleground between rain and snow due to having only a seasonal airmass in place. I think despite the poor pattern, most could still come close to or even reach average snow for the month(I believe it's 8.8" at PHL...not sure about ABE/DYL/NXX I'd guess between 10 and 15") but we get there mostly with snow thump to rain events. I mean the next 10 days could feature 3 of these and really in those set ups it is hard to get a great idea how much will fall before the changeover past 48 hours out. If we average 2" before a changeover that's 6 inches alone right there halfway through the month. Plus, since the pattern isn't really showing a torch or just a total lack of cold air over the continent, I'd be pretty surprised if we got skunked with zero all snow events this month. It will just likely be minor like a clipper or similar to the December nickle/dime events. Finally, as long as  guidance still shows that cold air in Canada continuing to be there, a fluke event is never off the table even if the teleconnections fail to cooperate. 

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well 12z GFS and NAM for this weekend is mostly rain for practically everyone. even far NE PA only sees a inch or 2 before the flip(less even on the NAM). However, the CMC shows a solid 2-4" thump for the entire area before changing to rain. the big difference between them is that the gfs doesn't bring any precip into the area while we are below freezing while the CMC gives us several hours of precip below freezing. it is also cooler overall than both. Interestingly, the RGEM looks similar to the cmc at the end of it's range. Really what it is going to come down to is timing. We want this to come in faster than projected. The other key difference is the northern low. The CMC weakens it as it goes through the lakes and focuses on the southern energy which allows the cold air to hang on longer. The GFS deepens it and the NAM really deepens it so by the time precip arrives, all of the cold air has been scoured out. A couple inches is still in play but I am leaning towards the GFS/NAM camps at the moment though as most guidance is leaning towards the lakes low deepening. Haven't seen the UK though.

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Upon closer examination, Hour 48 the CMC and GFS are practically identical up to hour 48 and the GFS even ends up focusing the energy more on the southern low like the CMC but it doesn't weaken the northern low as quick as the CMC does, that is the main difference and why the CMC shows the precip here earlier. The GFS and NAM really aren't all that similar other than the fact they both hold on to the northern energy longer than the cmc but the NAM focuses the energy on the gl low and never even develops the southern low. So while the CMC and GFS show 2 different outcomes, they are actually much closer in storm evolution than the NAM. 

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well 12z GFS and NAM for this weekend is mostly rain for practically everyone. even far NE PA only sees a inch or 2 before the flip(less even on the NAM). However, the CMC shows a solid 2-4" thump for the entire area before changing to rain. the big difference between them is that the gfs doesn't bring any precip into the area while we are below freezing while the CMC gives us several hours of precip below freezing. it is also cooler overall than both. Interestingly, the RGEM looks similar to the cmc at the end of it's range. Really what it is going to come down to is timing. We want this to come in faster than projected. The other key difference is the northern low. The CMC weakens it as it goes through the lakes and focuses on the southern energy which allows the cold air to hang on longer. The GFS deepens it and the NAM really deepens it so by the time precip arrives, all of the cold air has been scoured out. A couple inches is still in play but I am leaning towards the GFS/NAM camps at the moment though as most guidance is leaning towards the lakes low deepening. Haven't seen the UK though.
Not surprising....the GGEM and RGEM are essentially ran off of the same algorithms just different resolutions so they should be in-step with one another. With that said, the CMC family has had a cold bias with events this winter.
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euro is similar to GFS but is faster so NE PA does much better on the front end. 2-4" with a sharp cutoff around the LV. Further south with accumulating snow from 00z. I don't think LV is out of the game at all for a front end 1-3 or 2-4". But down in the metro area/coastal plain, if things don't start trending towards the cmc by 00z then it's game over for even a snow start besides maybe a few flurries. And the CMC needs to continue holding serve which would be miraculous in itself. Looking like we may go 0 for 2 in snow to rain or rain to snow events. They don't seem to happen nearly as much as I remember as a kid. Now I feel like most times we are supposed to thump we changeover much quicker than anticipated and it ends up being mostly rain. There are exceptions of course but I don't remember many good snow to rain or rain to snow events of recent.

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You know what they say, ride the model that shows the most snow. Most of these include sleet/freezing rain but who cares?

rgem_asnow_neus_48.png

wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_48.png

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nam3km_asnow_neus_46.png

Either way, Poconos are realistically looking at a 4-6" storm with the lower Lehigh Valley looking at a T-2" at best. Holding out hope the cold air can linger a bit longer.

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Wxsim on an island unto itself with temps not getting above freezing in NW Chesco....

Sunday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet, and rain likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 13 to 23. Wind south-southwest around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.                                                                                                               Sunday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. A mix of freezing rain and sleet likely. Low 24. Wind chill ranging from 14 to 23. Wind south-southwest around 8 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in      the evening, becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.  Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.        

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