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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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**A WIGGUM RULE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JANUARY 12, 2018** 
In previous years I have mentioned an independent study that I have conducted irt to the correlation between 60F+ high temps during the heart of the winter season and snowfall within the 5 days following. I define "heart of winter" (for basis of this study) to be January 5 - February 7 though there is some flex on either side of that range. I have noted that there is a >90% success rate that we get snow within the 5-day period following a high temp of at least 60F using KDYL as a base station. I define snow as actual snow that is falling to the ground *whether or not there is accumulation*. 
Both GFS and NAM mos data have KDYL hitting 60F on January 12. *IF* this high temp verifies, there is a >90% chance that we see snow between January 13 and January 18. Few things to note. 1) the high temp of 60F isnt perfect. I've seen this rule verify when hitting 55F or higher but 60F or higher exponentially increases the chances. 2) this is not failsafe obviously and just because we hit 60F doesnt mean we see flakes...my recorded data shows roughly 93% success since I have been researching. 
The theory behind this rule is amplification and flow physics. Again, in a perfect world it would be 100% success but atmospheric science is chaotic so-to-speak. Some refer to it as a rubber-band effect or a snap-back effect in the atmosphere. I always found it interesting that we could go from being so mild to seeing snow, then put 2 and 2 together and began doing logs and conducting research.
So with this said, a Wiggum Rule Watch has been issued. Need a better name for this. :unsure:
We just hit 61F here in Warminster.
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8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Winds have really picked up in the last hour. (gusty)Temps went from 58F not too long ago to my current temp of 48F. Harrisburg is at 35F...cold air moving in.

Just posted in the event thread.  Same here - 59F for a few hours, winds around 4:30 am, and temp is NOW down to 45F and still dropping (it was 46 when I posted in the other thread a couple minutes ago)!!

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An ice jam is currently occurring near the falls in trenton/Morrisville. I noticed it right as they issued the warning this morning. I have a few pics I will upload later. I don't see this resolving itself until Wednesday earliest. Flood levels may be higher than projected as well. I'm going to go back later this afternoon to see how much the water has risen. Very cool sight, anyone interested in seeing a weather event that doesnt occurs around here often to take a drive to the levy near the trenton makes bridge in Morrisville. PM me if you want directions to some good spots to view it.

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18 hours ago, Newman said:

Looks like winter takes a bit of a break to close out January. 2nd week of February we should be rolling again.

Yeah correct me if I am wrong but it's typical in this area to see a brief warm up for a week or two going to Feb, then we get a decent storm around the 10th of Feb, then pretty much pack it in till next year. Sure there are the occasional late Feb/March storms, but most of them are small impact and melt within days. The planets need to be lined up for a good monster storm (i.e. 1993) in that time. 

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11 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Yeah correct me if I am wrong but it's typical in this area to see a brief warm up for a week or two going to Feb, then we get a decent storm around the 10th of Feb, then pretty much pack it in till next year. Sure there are the occasional late Feb/March storms, but most of them are small impact and melt within days. The planets need to be lined up for a good monster storm (i.e. 1993) in that time. 

Over my almost 50 years on this planet, I can say that there have been many snow storms and events here in PA during the time around my birthday, which is February 8th. There does seems to be times of the year where certain events happen more frequently. Hell, the USGA had to move the dates of the Phoenix Open golf tournament out in Arizona because of so many frost, rain, and even on occasion, snow delays. It seemed that the week of the tournament most years had some of the crappiest weather that Phoenix/Scottsdale experiences during the winter months.

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