E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

[The Iceman]

HRRR keeps getting wetter and wetter with each run. 1-3" area wide save for southern portions of the area in the last run. LV would likely see 3 -5" if HRRR is correct based on ratio's.

[Newman]

As Iceman stated, most models are coming in slightly wetter. Newest NAM has .2-.3 precip falling in the LV. With ratios, that's 2-4 or maybe 3-5. I fully expect most will see 1 inch.

 

[Newman]

Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern PA. From the statement:

Snow expected. Temperatures are cold enough for snow to
  stick on contact on untreated roads, resulting in slippery
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are
  expected.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just walked in the door and had a few minutes to digest the 12Z and 18Z data. Glad to see the return of the Clipper this season! Guidance has trended towards a slightly juicier and farther S solution so following suit I will adjust my call slightly from earlier today based on this and current radar obs. Up to 2" possible N DE on Northward to I76. 1-3" I76 North to roughly Stroudsburg, PA with some 5" isolated high ratio lolli's not out of the question embedded within that 1-3" band. Lighter accums North of there. Radar still looks ragged with more snow showery/light snow/pockets of precip rather than one solid batch, so probably intermittent light snows overnight generally speaking. Trend so far with these first 2 systems is favorable.....adjusting totals up slightly rather than taking them down.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Has anyone heard from Birds_69? Hope he didn't take the loss of Wentz too hard... it's ok man, we can still win without him!! But on a serious note, it's pretty odd of him to not have posted during the past snowstorm or after the Eagles game Sunday. Hope everything is ok and he's just on an extended vacation.

Been thinking of him myself.....very odd. I know he lives literally a couple miles from me, but I dont know exactly where. I wouldnt want to invade his privacy either and just pop over unexpectedly either. As you said, hopefully he is ok and just lost internet service or something silly. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Snowing in Newark Delaware just south of I-95 at the toll plaza.

Didn't take long for it to reach the ground. Cars are already coated, but its very light.

Based on the HRRR I don't think we get anything more than an inch at most, but could be a bit slippery on the roads. This was kind of semi unexpected/last minute considering the last storm didn't stick on the roads and Wilmington got only 2 inches. They made a much bigger deal out of that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS/GEFS both took another step back last night with a classic Nina look trying to lock in the LR. Trof anchored in SW, strong signal for SE Ridging, +NAO. This isnt a horrible setup with energy ejecting out of the SW trough and riding up along the SE Ridge axis every other day which looks stationary. Plenty of cold HP along the Canadian border....nice gradient pattern setting up. With a look as such locking in, whoever ends up on the cold side of the boundary is probably going to have one heck of a stretch of active wintry weather. Boundary is displaced too far North and West right now on the ens (except GEPS) but plenty of time to adjust. I dont like the way the GEFS and EPS keep ticking the boundary farther N and W though as lead time is shortening. Need to see how next week pans out tho first. 

[The Iceman]

pattern looks like one where new England gets a historic stretch and we are in the battleground either always changing over or seeing plain rain. the models have been flip flopping the last few days though so still time for this to trend back to being more favorable for us. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

pattern looks like one where new England gets a historic stretch and we are in the battleground either always changing over or seeing plain rain. the models have been flip flopping the last few days though so still time for this to trend back to being more favorable for us. 

Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway.

[The Iceman]

33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

42 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

pattern looks like one where new England gets a historic stretch and we are in the battleground either always changing over or seeing plain rain. the models have been flip flopping the last few days though so still time for this to trend back to being more favorable for us. 
 

Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway.

Ralph, don't you know that only good patterns are transient. once an unfavorable pattern sets up, it's pretty much a lock to stay in place. at least that's how it has seemed the last few years

[bigtenfan]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

43 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

pattern looks like one where new England gets a historic stretch and we are in the battleground either always changing over or seeing plain rain. the models have been flip flopping the last few days though so still time for this to trend back to being more favorable for us. 
 

Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway.

Is it true that in La Nina years once the pattern flips to unfavorable it is slow to flip back if at all. 1989-1990 comes to mind.

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Is it true that in La Nina years once the pattern flips to unfavorable it is slow to flip back if at all. 1989-1990 comes to mind.

There are so many more factors that go into it but in general, majority of Nina years tend to have a front-loaded winter. 95-96 is a good example (anomalous) of an East-based Nina that actually kept trying to turn unfavorable but never locked in. Like Iceman said, the transient nature of the shifts to a relaxed and/or warmer look can be a blessing in disguise. This transient nature of the attempted shifts to relaxation/warmer periods actually aided in us getting so many snowfalls during the 95-96 season. It's usually when the patterns relax or flip we see our snows and not always DURING the pattern. Clippers can be the wild card as they can setup in a cold pattern and drop a few inches every few days. Clippers are good climo systems here that incrementally help us reach our average snowfall for a season. So while history says *usually* a Nina early cold start will flip warm and stick, that is not often the case. Certainly will be some variability this season imo. Would be really sweet if we could get the NAO in our favor at times. The -AO is always a plus though and looks persistent for now anyway.

 

Eta: Don Sutherland in these forums has done quite extensive research on Nina years and patterns in relation to the current. Do a search when you get time....lots of interesting material he covers. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just to add, iirc 95-96 featured the typical Nina SER that flexed every so often giving us brief thaws in between snows and cold pattern. The SER that year aligned itself in such a spot that when clippers would come thru they hit the ridge and intensified. This is an anomalous example of how the Nina influenced SER, continuous clipper pattern, and proper alignment can work in tandem in a favorable way. Not banking on anything that extreme this year but with 95-96 as one of my analogue years from the outlook, I am keying on the -AO, return of the clipper pattern, and the SER to get us normal to AN in snowfall this season. Fingers crossed.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z models continue to tick tomorrows LP farther N and W. Period of snow in S Jersey looking more likely. CMC is aggressive and gets accumulating snow into SE PA tomorrow. Interesting. This one *might* be too short lead time to effectively get SE PA into the batch of snow tomorrow we will have to watch trends thru 0z. One thing cant be denied.....the trends in our favor so far. If some of the area can eek out a trace tomorrow would be the 4th snowfall in first half of December. Pretty amazing given the past few years.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z models continue to tick tomorrows LP farther N and W. Period of snow in S Jersey looking more likely. CMC is aggressive and gets accumulating snow into SE PA tomorrow. Interesting. This one *might* be too short lead time to effectively get SE PA into the batch of snow tomorrow we will have to watch trends thru 0z. One thing cant be denied.....the trends in our favor so far. If some of the area can eek out a trace tomorrow would be the 4th snowfall in first half of December. Pretty amazing given the past few years.

 

It's because Lucy is on the sidelines with a torn MCL because of Peter Griffin, her replacement not only holds but with laces out...

 

[The Iceman]

12z GFS ensembles look improved to me in the LR. SE ridge isn't as strong, still have a postive NAO but temps in the LR look cold. actually looks ripe for an overrunning set up. strength of the SE ridge is going to rule what we see. you couldn't ask for a better look in the pacific. another good sign is the old saying that in good winters it finds ways to snow and thus far it has been the case. most of the area is at or above normal snowfall so far and we really haven't had a classic set up for any of it.

[Birds~69]

On 12/13/2017 at 1:30 PM, The Iceman said:

Has anyone heard from Birds_69? Hope he didn't take the loss of Wentz too hard... it's ok man, we can still win without him!! But on a serious note, it's pretty odd of him to not have posted during the past snowstorm or after the Eagles game Sunday. Hope everything is ok and he's just on an extended vacation.

Thanks....the Wentz thing sucked....my parents situation really sucks. Things always around the holidays.

Foles....I'm kinda hit or miss? Hopefully good.....he kinda has streaks.

[ChescoWx]

23 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z GFS ensembles look improved to me in the LR. SE ridge isn't as strong, still have a postive NAO but temps in the LR look cold. actually looks ripe for an overrunning set up. strength of the SE ridge is going to rule what we see. you couldn't ask for a better look in the pacific. another good sign is the old saying that in good winters it finds ways to snow and thus far it has been the case. most of the area is at or above normal snowfall so far and we really haven't had a classic set up for any of it.

Agreed - some years it just likes to snow...the only year I remember not following a December lead was 1989....so cold and wintry and then come January...winter over

[Ralph Wiggum]

18Z starts off with the NW trend continuing. CMC is no longer alone....accum snows into SE PA tomorrow:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Decent snowfall trend/jump:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS has ticked N and West as well. Not a huge storm but looks like another "up to 2 inches" or so type of system for extreme SE PA tomorrow afternoon/evening with highest totals an 3" lollis S and E of I95. Little events adding up nicely so far :-)

[Ralph Wiggum]

18Z RGEM is in:

 

[ChescoWx]

Today's climate summary for NW Chester County Pa - Hi/Lo 31.5/23.3 (8.1 degrees below average). We are now at 0.1 degrees below average for the month of December at 36.2.  The 1st 7 days were well above normal while the last 7 days have been well below normal

[bigtenfan]

9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There are so many more factors that go into it but in general, majority of Nina years tend to have a front-loaded winter. 95-96 is a good example (anomalous) of an East-based Nina that actually kept trying to turn unfavorable but never locked in. Like Iceman said, the transient nature of the shifts to a relaxed and/or warmer look can be a blessing in disguise. This transient nature of the attempted shifts to relaxation/warmer periods actually aided in us getting so many snowfalls during the 95-96 season. It's usually when the patterns relax or flip we see our snows and not always DURING the pattern. Clippers can be the wild card as they can setup in a cold pattern and drop a few inches every few days. Clippers are good climo systems here that incrementally help us reach our average snowfall for a season. So while history says *usually* a Nina early cold start will flip warm and stick, that is not often the case. Certainly will be some variability this season imo. Would be really sweet if we could get the NAO in our favor at times. The -AO is always a plus though and looks persistent for now anyway.

 

Eta: Don Sutherland in these forums has done quite extensive research on Nina years and patterns in relation to the current. Do a search when you get time....lots of interesting material he covers. 

Thank you so much for a very educational( for me anyway) answer.

[anthonyweather]

18Z RGEM is in:

 

That one sprung up on me.

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[anthonyweather]

And of course, right in time for evening commute


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[Newman]

Latest 21z SREFs have a fairly big jump NW of the precip for the *possible* snow tomorrow afternoon and evening. The SREFs aren't a good model suite, but its more guidance thrown into the mix to look at.

[Ralph Wiggum]

And 0Z begins with another tick N and W. NAM looks to put SE PA in some of the better rates tomorrow afternoon. Juicing it up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Trends

[Newman]

lol crazy trends within 30 hour lead times. This winter's been fun so far.