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December 2017 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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The annual contest has tightened up somewhat as some of the chase pack were closer than the leaders to the unexpected (by all) negative anomalies in the east (at least, that's how it looks at present) ...

So it's a showdown for top spots in the contest(s) and the same forecast challenge as always ...

Predict the temperature anomalies (F) relative to 1981-2010 averages (Normal) for December 2017 for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(also the usual penalties, 1% for every 2h late up to 18z 2nd, after which it's 1% per hour to the end of 5th.)

Note from administration: your host will be moving house at end of November and it's quite possible I will be unable to access the internet for more than a few minutes at a time until about the 5th, so don't expect to find a table of forecasts or November scoring totally updated as quickly as is my usual custom. All will get back to normal eventually, I hope. 

(Nov 29 edit with update _ looks very very cold to me in Midwest)

My shot in the dark will be

--2.0 _ --2.8 _ --3.5 ___ --8.0 _ --2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.5 _ +4.5

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Forecasts for December 2017

Cue the "final countdown" music ... check the most recent scoring updates in the November thread ... but I will show how many points you are behind the leader (RJay in all three contests, original six, western and all nine).  Your original six points deficit follows the IAH forecast column, and your western points deficit and your all - nine deficit (in brackets) are at the end of the rows after the SEA forecasts. These can be translated to forecast differentials quite easily. For every 10 points per location you are behind, you need to be 0.5 deg closer than RJay to the actual value this month. Example, let's say you are 180 points behind in the six-location "original six" portion. That reduces to 30 points per location. That means that your forecasts will need to average 1.5 deg closer to catch up. There are situations where your forecasts cannot catch up, you can do the math on that. As one example, if your forecasts are all 0.1 different from RJay, the highest point differential you can achieve is 2 points per location. No spread, no dread chez RJay. 

(19th) _ As of today, I am taking out the provisional gain lines, leaving in the points behind RJay, and posting provisional scoring. For some reason the word "trainwreck" comes to mind. Despite on and off model run hints at powerful cold advection after Christmas, the positive anomalies are piling up to the point where even six days of record cold won't get the anomalies back to zero, and today's 12z GFS is only moderately cold in that final period so it currently looks as though we may all be too cold at the first five locations.

 

__ points behind feature __________________________________________ "original six" __________________ western, all nine

FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ ORD_ATL_IAH _ pts behind RJay _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ pts behnd RJay

 

___ Normal _______0.0__0.0__0.0 ___0.0__0.0__0.0 ___ 370 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ___ 361, 731

 

wxdude64 __ (-2%) __ 0.0 _--0.4 _--0.8 __--1.9 _--0.6 _--0.3 ____ 420 ____ --0.8 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ 184, 604

SD _______________ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __--1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ____ 258 ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ 270, 528

wxallannj __________--1.2 _--1.7 _--1.6 __--4.4 _ +0.8 _+1.4 ____148 ____ +2.2 _+1.9 _+2.5 ___ 060,208

Neckbeard93_ (-3%)_--1.5 _--1.2 __ 0.0 __--4.5 _ --0.9 _+0.7 ____669 ____ +1.3 _+2.1 _--0.4 ___497,1166

RodneyS __________ --1.5 _--1.2 _--1.2 __--0.3 _--1.9 _+1.6 ____ 248 ____ +2.2 _+4.8 _+1.0 ___ 040, 288

Roger Smith _______ --2.0 _--2.8 _--3.5__--8.0_--2.0 _+2.0 ____ 575 ____ +6.0 _+3.5 _+4.5 __ 141, 716

hudsonvalley21 ____ --2.1 _--2.2 _--2.0 __ --3.0 _--2.6 _--0.9 ____ 290 ____ +2.1 _+1.9 _+2.7 ___ 266, 556

 

___ Consensus ____ --2.2 _--2.3 _--2.2 __ --3.8 _--1.7 __ 0.0 ____ 110 ____ +2.2 _+2.1 _+2.6 ___ 023, 133

 

DonSutherland.1 ___ --2.4 _--2.5 _--2.8 __ --3.3 _--2.0 _--0.5 ____ 048 ____ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 ___ 138, 186

 

dmillz25 __________ --2.5 _--3.5 _--3.5__--4.0 _--1.0 _+1.0 ____ 284 ____ +1.5 _+2.0 _+3.5 ___ 245, 529

Tom _____________ --2.6 _--3.5 _--3.2 __ --4.2 _--1.5 _+0.3 ____ 245 ____ +2.2 _+1.7 _+2.6 __ 257, 502

BKViking __________ --2.7 _--2.0_ --2.1 __ --3.6 _--3.0_--1.0 ____ 106 ____ +1.2 _+1.3 _+3.1 __ 200, 306

RJay _____________ --3.0 _--3.0 _--3.0 __ --4.5 _--3.0_--1.0 ____ 000 ____ +2.2 _+2.2 _+4.0 __000,000

H2OTown_wx ______--3.1 _--2.3 _--2.5 ___--2.7 _--0.9 _--1.4 ___1263 ____ +3.4 _ +1.2 _ +2.1__572,1835

so_whats_happening_--3.1 _--2.7 _--2.4__ --4.2 _--2.8 _--1.3 ____ 710 ____ --1.6 _+2.7 _+1.3 __ 265, 975

___________________________________________________________________________________________

color codes: 

red = warmest forecast (Normal is warmer for NYC, ORD).

blue = coldest forecast (Normal is colder for PHX)

green = Normal

rusty = Consensus which is median value, mean of 7th and 8th for the 14 entrants (basically, back to the determined regulars).

`

 

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Roger Smith

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Continuing to track the anomalies .

 

_________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_______ (7d) _____ +4.2 _+5.4 _+3.5 ___ +7.4 _+7.7 _+2.5 ____+6.1 _+7.3 _+0.4

______( 14d) _____ +0.4 _--0.4 _--0.2 ___ +0.2 _+1.2 _--1.8 ____+9.4 _+6.4 _--0.4

______( 18d) ______ 0.0 _--1.2 _--1.6 ___ +4.1 _+0.7 _--1.4 ____+9.2 _+5.6 _+0.4

______( 20d) _____ +1.1 __0.0 _--0.7 ___ +4.8 _+2.0 _+0.3 ____+9.7 _+5.2 _+0.6

______( 22d) _____ +1.4 _+0.3 _--0.9 ___ +5.3 _+2.8 _+1.2 ____+8.2 _+4.1 _+0.2

______( 25d) _____ +2.1 _+0.6 _--0.6 ___ +3.8 _+2.8 _+0.5 ____+5.5 _+3.4 _--0.6

______( 27d) _____ +1.4 _--0.3 _--1.5 ___ +1.8 _+2.4 __ 0.0 ____+4.0 _+3.4 _--0.9

______( 28d) _____ +0.8 _--1.1 _--2.2 ___ +1.1 _+2.2 _--0.4 ____+4.1 _+3.4 _--0.8

______( 29d) _____ +0.3 _--1.5 _--2.9 ___ +0.6 _+2.1 _--0.6 ____+4.2 _+3.5 _--0.5

______( 30d) ______ 0.0 _--1.9 _--3.4 _____0.0 _+2.0 _--0.5 ____ +3.8 _+3.6 _--0.4

______( 31d) _____--0.5_--2.5_--4.0 ___--0.5_+1.5_--0.7____ +3.2_+3.7_--0.6

 

Confirmed end of month anomalies are in bold. 

All scoring is now updated and confirmed. 

 

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Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

 

Copied from the November thread with amounts to date added ... those will be updated whenever new snow appears at the nine locations.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7

H2OTown__wx ________14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _ 105.0

SD __________________10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0_ 75.0

 

Amounts to date ____ 1.9 __7.7 __9.2 ___5.4 _ 22.5 _ 33.3__ 6.8 __ 3.0 _ 26.4

... snowfalls through Dec 31st, this version of table frozen and updates will appear in Jan thread

_____________________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.

 

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Roger Smith

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Final scoring for December 2017

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL 

Confirmed anomalies _-0.5_ -2.5_ -4.0 ___ _ ___ -0.5_ +1.5_ -0.7

 

SD ________________90 _ 70 _ 40 ____ 200____ 90 _ 80 _ 66 ____ 236 _____ 436 

H2OTown_wx _______ 48 _ 96 _ 70 ____ 214 ____ 56 _ 52 _ 86 ____194 _____ 408

DonSutherland.1 _____62 _100 _76 ____ 238 ____ 44 _ 30 _ 96____ 170 _____ 408

 

___ Normal ______ 90 _ 50 _ 20___160___ 90 _ 70 _ 86 ___ 246 ____ 406

 

wxdude64 __________90 _ 58 _ 36 ____ 184 ____ 72 _ 58 _ 92 ____ 222 _ 406

_________ (-2%) ____88 _ 57 _ 35 ____ 180 ____ 71 _ 57 _ 90 ____ 218 _____ 398

wxallannj ___________86 _ 84 _ 52 ____ 222 ____ 22 _ 86 _ 58____ 166 _____ 388

hudsonvalley21 ______68 _ 94 _ 60 ____ 222 ____ 50 _ 18 _ 96 ____ 164 _____ 386

 

___ Consensus ______ 66 _ 96 _ 64 ____ 226 ____ 34 _ 36 _ 86 ____ 156 _____ 382

 

RodneyS ___________ 80 _ 74 _ 44 ____ 198 ____96 _ 32 _ 54 ____ 182 _____ 380

dmillz25 ____________60 _ 80 _ 90____ 230 ____ 30 _ 50 _ 66 ____ 146 _____ 376

Tom _______________58 _ 80 _ 84 ____ 222 ____ 26 _ 40 _ 80 ____ 146 _____ 368

BKViking ___________ 56 _ 90 _ 62 ____ 208 ____ 38 _ 10 _ 94 ____ 142 _____ 350

RJay _______________50 _ 90 _ 80 ____ 220 ____ 20 _ 10 _ 94 ____ 124 _____ 344

so_whats_happening__48 _ 96 _ 68 ____ 212 ____ 26 _ 14 _ 88 ____ 128 _____ 340

Roger Smith ________ 70 _ 94 _ 90____254 ____ 00 _ 30 _ 46 ____ 076 _____ 330

Neckbeard93 ________80 _ 74 _ 20 ____ 174 ____ 20 _ 52 _ 72 ____ 144 _ 318

_________ (-3%) ____78 _ 72 _ 19 ____ 169 ____ 19 _ 50 _ 70 ____ 139 _____ 308

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests, December 2017

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTALS _________ All nine (=rank)

Confirmed anomalies ____ +3.2_+3.7_-0.6

 

RodneyS _________________80 _ 78 _ 68 _______ 226 ___________ 606 ( = t2)

Neckbeard93 _____________ 62 _ 68 _ 96 _ 226

_______________ (-3%) ___ 60 _ 66 _ 93 _______ 219 ___________ 527 (= 9)

DonSutherland.1 __________96 _ 90 _ 20 _______ 206 ___________614  (= 1)

H2OTown_wx ____________ 96 _ 50 _46 _______ 192 ___________ 600 (= 4)

 

___Consensus ____________ 80 _ 68 _ 36 _______ 184 ___________ 566 (= 6)

 

wxallannj ________________ 80 _ 64 _ 38 _______ 182 ___________ 570 (= 5)

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 78 _ 64 _ 34 _______ 176 ___________ 562 (= 6)

Tom ____________________ 80 _ 60 _ 36 _______ 176 ___________ 544 (= 7)

SD _____________________ 56 _ 46 _ 68 _______ 170 ____________606  (= t2)

RJay ____________________ 80 _ 70 _ 08 _______ 158 ___________ 502 (= 11)

dmillz25 _________________ 66 _ 66 _ 18 _______ 150 ___________ 526 (= 10)

 

Normal ______________ 36 _26 _ 88 ______ 150 _________ 556 (= 7)

 

so_whats_happening _______04 _ 80 _ 62 _______ 146 ___________ 486 (= 13)

Roger Smith ______________44 _ 96 _ 00 _______ 140 ___________ 470 (= 14)

BKViking _________________54 _ 52 _ 26 _______ 138 ___________ 488 (= 12)

wxdude64 _______________ 20 _ 46 _ 66 _ 132 

____________ (-2%) ______ 20 _ 45 _ 65 _______ 130 ___________ 528 (= 8)

___________________________________________________________________________

 

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Roger Smith

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<<< ---=--- 2017 confirmed Annual Scoring Summary (January-December) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see previous post above for December scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-December are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded each month within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field. Where Normal or Consensus have a best score, there will also be a forecaster with best score even if that one is lower (there is a tie for Dec at DCA).

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___TOTAL__Best scores, months

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ____619 _596 _553 __1768___635 _752 _891__2278___4046_ 011.123.1.3_Jan, May  

 2 RJay _____________ 588 _627 _588 __1803___554 _780_893__2227___ 4030 _122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 

 

 3 Consensus _________620 _594 _549 __1763 ___585 _809_801 __2195___3958 _010.000

 

 3 BKViking __________ 632 _600 _594 __1826___601 _777 _726 __2104___3930 _110.001.1.1_Oct  

 4 wxallannj __________687_588 _614__1889___488 _795_754 __2037___3926 _002.032.1.0_Jun

 5 SD _______________ 674 _601 _565 __1840 ___636 _734 _654__2024___3864 _221.200.1.1_Sep, Dec

 6 RodneyS __________ 612 _522 _450 __1584 ___720 _697 _817__2234___3818 _011.511.0.2_Mar,Nov

 7 Tom ______________651 _569 _581 __1801 ___535 _744 _729 __2008___3809 _111.211.1.0

 8 hudsonvalley21______591 _549 _526 __1666 ___585 _744 _787__2116___3782 _000.011  

 9 dmillz25 ___________670 _579 _574 __1823 ___573 _706 _676__1955___3778 _101.101

 

10 Normal ____________660 _591 _556 __1807___589 _646 _680__1915___3722 _201.001.0.1_May

 

10 wxdude64 _________624 _514 _554 __1692 ___546 _722 _704__1972___3664 _120.001.1.0

11 Roger Smith _______ 620 _597 _482 __1699 ___461 _646 _635__1742___3441 _102.001.1.0 _Aug

12 Neckbeard93*______ 497 _471 _378 __1346 ___611 _684 _684__1979___3325 _111.000.1.0

13 so_whats_happening#555_487 _498 __1540 ___469 _652 _655 __1776___3316 _200.110 .0.1

14 H2Otown_WX~~____ 462 _461 _445 __1368___ 350 _579 _534__1463___2831 _110.001.1.0

15 Stebo $____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 _011.102.1.0 _ Jul 

16 Damage in Tolland x_ 402 _364 _353 __1119 ___442 _538 _540__1520___2639 _000.010..0.0

17 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___ 322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 _001.000

18 rainsucks // ________ 166 _172 _138 __ 476 ___ 150 _184 _170 __ 504___ 980 _121.100.1.1_Sep,Oct

19 CCM %%__________ 136 _106 _156 __ 398 ___ 146 _134 _126 __ 406___ 804 _000.100..0.1

20 snoski14 !! _________ 42 __ 92 __ 91 __ 225 ___117 _152 _132 __ 401___ 626 _011.000.1.0_ Oct

21 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107 _123 __ 341 ____ 25 _140 _118 __ 283___ 624 _110.010 

22 Maxim^____________ 80 __ 85 __78 __ 243 ____50 _150 _142 __ 342___ 585 _100.001

23 JBG % _____________88 __ 64 __32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 __ 88 __ 220___ 404

24 IntenseBlizzard 2014/_ 62 __ 48 __58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 __ 96 __ 192___ 360

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - December 2017

Best scores: numbers are best scores for DEN, PHX and SEA ... red months are best scores in western contest, and green months at end of row are best scores for all nine in that month.

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN _PHX _SEA___TOTAL__Best scores____ All nine ( = rank ) __ Months 


 1 RodneyS ____________796 _843 _776___2415 __ 2 3 0 _ Oct,Dec_ 6233 ( = 4) __ MAR, NOV

 

 2 Consensus ___________782 _744 _864 ___2390 __ 2 0 0 _________ 6348 ( = 2)

 

 2 Rjay _______________ 774 _758 _855___ 2387 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 6417 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR, JUL

 3 wxallannj ___________ 758 _765 _828 ___ 2351 __ 1 1 1 __ Nov ___ 6277 ( = 3) __ JUN

 4 DonSutherland.1 _____ 804 _753 _740 ___ 2297 __ 3 1 0 __ Aug ___ 6343 ( = 2)__

________________________________________________________________JAN, MAY, AUG, DEC

 

 5 Roger Smith _________553 _793 _882 ___ 2228 __ 0 2 2 __ Feb ____5669 (= 11) 

 6 wxdude64 ___________604 _711 _860 ___ 2175 __ 2 2 1 __ Nov ___ 5839 (= 10) 

 7 BKViking ____________586 _665 _916 ___ 2167 __ 0 0 1 _________ 6097 ( = 5) __ SEP, OCT

 8 Tom _______________ 627 _751 _770 ___ 2148 __ 0 0 0 __________5957  ( = 7)

 9 hudsonvalley21 ______ 642 _729 _768 ___ 2139 __ 0 0 0 __________5921 ( = 8)

10 dmillz25 ____________672 _668 _794 ___ 2134 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _ 5912 ( = 9) 

11 SD_________________700 _701 _728 ___ 2129 __ 0 0 0 __________5993 ( = 6) 

12 so_whats_happening#_599 _747 _764 ___ 2110 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _5426 (= 12)

 

13 Normal _____________ 627 _639 _752 ___ 2018 __ 0 1 0 _________ 5740 (= 11)

 

13 Neckbeard93* _______820 _573 _558 ___ 1951 __ 3 1 1 __________5276 (= 13) 

14 H20TownWx~~______ 656 _526 _667 ___ 1849 __ 1 0 1 __________4680 (= 14) 

15 Damage in Tolland x___529 _572 _738 ___ 1839 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun ____ 4478 (= 15)

16 Stebo $_____________ 489 _518 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 _________ 4406 ( =16) 

17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ___ 1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 19)

19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 21)

20 rainsucks // _________ 136 _150 _104 ____ 390 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1370 (= 18)__SEP,OCT

21 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 20)

22 IntenseBlizzard 2014/ __ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 24) 

23 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 23)

24 snoski14 !! ___________ 79 _ 14 _ 56 ____ 149 __ 0 0 0 ___________ 775 (= 22)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr)

~~ two months missed (July, August)

x two months missed (Nov, Dec)

$ three months missed (Oct, Nov, Dec)

~ six months missed (July, August, September, October, November, December)

^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar)

%% two months entered (May, June) ... // two months entered (September, October) ... !! two months entered (Oct, Nov)

% one month entered (July) ... / one month entered (September)

 

Reports on points lost due to late penalties removed (none lost in Feb)

... table shows late penalties for original six and western contests. e.g., 0,2 means 0 points lost and 2 points lost. No late penalties assessed in February.

FORECASTER ___ Jan _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct _ Nov _ Dec ___ TOTAL 

Blazess556 _____(0,2) _- - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - -  _ - - - ___ 0, 2  

Rjay ___________- - - _(22,19)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - -  _ - - - ___22,19 

Damage in Tolland - - -_(13, 5)- - _- - - _ - - - _(75,23)- - -_- - - _(54,29) - - - _ - - -  __142,57

wxdude64 ______ - - -_(12, 2)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _ (7,4)_ - - - _ - - - _ (8,2) ___ 27, 8

H2O_Town__wx _ - - -_- - -_(25,26)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - (15,11) (27,21)- - - _ - - - ____67,58

Neckbeard93 ____- - -_- - -_(14,18)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _ - - -_ (29,9)_ (10,7)___53,34

BKViking _______  - - -_- - -_- - - (20,12)- - -_- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - ____ 20,12 

Stebo __________ - - - _- - -_ - - -_- - - (24,15) - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - ____ 24,15 

SD ____________ - - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - -(30,10)_ - - -  ___ 30,10 

(brief analysis of above -- very few of these late penalties changed any rankings, the forecasters with the larger deficits would have moved closer to next ranked forecaster but not beyond them, and smaller late penalties largely offset where some scores were close. However, RJay would have finished 6 points ahead of DonS in the original six portion with the late penalty removed, and would have finished just nine points behind RodneyS in the western contest. BKViking would have moved ahead of consensus in the original six, and SD would have moved up two ranks in the western.

Honor roll __ no late penalties in 11 or 12 forecast months_

__ __ DonS, wxallannj, RodneyS, hudsonvalley21, Tom, dmillz25, Roger Smith, so_whats_happening

 

Comparative scoring for Neckbeard93, and so_whats_happening

... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January, and so_whats_happening missed April.

... I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western), and 469 for April (249, 220).

Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these three would be

Neckbeard93 ____________3466 __ 2175 ___ 5641 _____ 12th __ 7th __ 13th

so_whats_happening _____ 3565 __ 2340 ___ 5905 _____ 11th __ 4th __ 10th

(these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties, also the ranks are now given with reference to each other moving up ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). 

For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 11th, 7th and 10th. Those would each drop one compared to so_whats_happening with extra points.

 

Congrats to winners in some very close annual competitions ... 

Contest _________ First ___ Second ___ Third ____ Fourth _____ Fifth

All nine locations ____ RJay _____ DonS ____ wxallannj __ RodneyS _____ BKViking

"Original six" _______ DonS _____ RJay ____ BKViking ___ wxallannj _____SD

__ eastern three ____ wxallannj __ SD _____ BKViking ___ dmillz25 ______ RJay (Tom 2 pts back)

__ central three _____ DonS ____ RJay _____hudsonv21__ BKViking _____ wxallannj

Western ___________ RodneyS __ RJay ____ wxallannj ___ DonS _______ Roger Smith

It should be noted that some of our contests were almost photo finishes either at the top or between various persons above. Consensus finished between fifth and second in most contests. Normal was as high as fifth in the eastern portion of original six. 

If I took the average score to compare those with 10 or 11 forecasts with those entering all 12 months, there would generally be no changes except that so_whats_happening would rank fourth in the western contest. Neckbeard93 managed to pull off high total score at DEN despite missing one month.

For every 0.1 deg error that you improve over another forecaster, your annual point differential will be about 200 (it would be 216 if all months required no scoring adjustments). So a contest differential of 20 points is equivalent to a forecast difference of 0.01 F deg. This is a tight contest when viewed from that perspective, even the lowest ranked regular (fully participating) forecaster(s) average little more than 0.3 degrees greater errors than the top ranked. 

The average of absolute forecast error ranges from about 2.0 for the top ranked forecasters, to 2.4.

One final summary involves best scores. This is the tabulation of best scores at stations and months (a forecaster has up to 108 chances to get a best score at a station and 36 for a best scoring month as this includes original six, western, and all nine. Best scores for three eastern or central appear also. Those are the second entries under "best scores" so for example, RJay had a total of 14 station scores that were best, and 5 group (eastern or central) scores that were best, followed by a total of seven monthly scores over the three contests that were highest.

These are presented in the same order as the scoring for all nine to give you a sense of who is relatively conservative or daring in their approach. 

All Nine rank _ FORECASTER _ best scores _ best months

 1. _________ RJay ____________ 14, 5 _____ 7

 2. _________ DonSutherland1 ___ 12, 4 _____ 7

 ___ 2. _____ Consensus ________ 3, 0 ______ 0

 3. _________ wxallannj ________ 10, 1 _____ 3

 4. _________ RodneyS _________ 14, 2 _____ 6

 5. _________ BKViking __________ 3, 2 _____ 3

 6. _________ SD _______________ 7, 2 _____ 2

 7. _________ Tom ______________ 7, 1 _____ 0

 8. _________ hudsonvalley21 _____ 2, 0 _____ 0

 9. _________ dmillz25 ___________ 7, 0 _____ 2

10. _________ wxdude64 _________ 9, 1 _____ 1

____ 11. ____ Normal ____________ 5, 1 _____ 1

11. _________ Roger Smith _______ 8, 1 _____ 2 (12 months entered to here in this list)

12. _________ so_whats_happening _6, 1 _____ 2 (11)

13. _________ Neckbeard93 _______ 8, 1 _____ 0 (11)

14. __________H2OTown_wx ______ 5, 1 _____ 0 (10)

15. __________Damage in Tolland __ 5, 0 _____ 1 (10)

16. __________ Stebo ____________ 7, 1 _____ 0 ( 9)

17. __________ blazess556 ________ 2, 0 _____ 0 (6)

18. __________ rainsucks _________ 6, 2 _____ 4 (2)

19. __________ Prestige Worldwide _ 4, 0 _____ 0 (3)

20. __________ CCM _____________ 1, 1 _____ 0 (2)

21. __________ Maxim ____________2, 0 _____ 0 (3)

22. __________ Snoski14 __________2, 1 _____ 1 (2)

23. __________ JBG ______________ 1, 0 _____ 0 (1)

24. __________ Intense Blizzard 2014 1, 0 _____ 0 (1)

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Extreme Forecast -- final summary for 2017

 

During December, seven of the nine locations have qualified for an extreme forecast, only IAH and NYC failed to make this list. 

DCA (-0.5) _ A win for SD (-1.0) and Normal, and a "no decision" for wxdude64 (0.0).

NYC (-2.5) _ This was close to our consensus of -2.3.

BOS (-4.0) _ This outcome is a shared win for dmillz25 and Roger Smith who have -3.5 as forecasts.

ORD (-0.5) _ This is a win RodneyS (-0.3), the warmest forecast we had. 

ATL (+1.5) _ This is a win for wxallannj (+0.8) with our highest forecast. 

IAH (-0.7) _ This would need to sink to -1.4 or lower to qualify. 5th and 6th lowest forecasts are tied for the high score. 

DEN (+3.2) _ At that outcome, it's a shared win for H2OTown_wx (+3.4) and DonS (+3.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+6.0).

PHX (+3.7) _ This is a win for Roger Smith (+3.5) and a loss for RodneyS (+4.8).

SEA (-0.6) _ This would be a win for Neckbeard93 (-0.4) despite losing 3 points on a late penalty, was considerably closer than any other forecaster as the rest of us went above normal by at least +1.0.

The final standings in the extreme forecast table look like this:

 

UPDATED EXTREME FORECAST TABLE (2017)

 

RJay _____________ 8-0 

___Normal ________ 7-1

DonSutherland1 ____ 7-4

Wxdude64 _________6-0 &

rainsucks __________6-1

Wxallannj _________ 6-1

Roger Smith ________6-1

SD _______________5-0***

Neckbeard93 _______5-2

Damage in Tolland __ 4-0*

so_whats_happening _4-0

RodneyS __________ 4-1

Stebo _____________4-3

Tom ______________ 3-0

Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0

H2OTown__Wx _____ 3-0

Dmillz25 ___________3-1

Maxim ____________ 2-0

BKViking __________ 2-0

snoski14 __________ 2-1

JBG ______________ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 _____1-0

CCM ______________1-1

____________________________________________

* no decision for DCA July 2017

** no decision for DEN Oct 2017

*** no decision for DCA Nov 2017

& no decision for DCA Dec 2017

(No decision occurs when an extreme forecast fails to reach high score among forecasters only due to a late penalty).

It appears that about two-thirds of the months in 2017 qualified for an extreme forecast. There are some ties in the standings and Normal's wins are not exclusive, there has to be a forecaster with a win each time Normal wins. 

This table will be updated after anomalies are confirmed for December. 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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It's a wrap -- 2017 forecast contest results all posted above.

We had some very close finishes and three different forecasters won the top honors, RJay overall, DonSutherland1 for the "original six" and RodneyS for the western contest. BKViking, wxallannj and SD all did quite well and the chase pack was very close behind them. 

Congrats to the various winners, and good luck in 2018.

 

Post your thoughts ... 

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