Winter 2017-18 banter thread

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

There's literally nothing more unfathomable to me than jealousy or bitterness over someone else's good fortune, especially when it's the weather. Your ex falling happily in love again, sure. Rich people cruising around town in Lambos while you slave away in the coal mine, OK, fine. But snow? Snow?!

I used to do a poll years ago where I'd ask ' Would you rather jackpot with 8", or get 10" with someone nearby jackpotting with 16'?  The vote went 2-1 for the 8".  I gotta tell ya, if I'm being honest, I would go with the former too, and I think it's simply about expectations rather than jealousy.  This last storm crystallized something else too -- I don't know much, nothing technical in fact, about subsidence, but I know that a dynamic system with lots of it is going to have a high standard deviation with regard to amounts.  Thus, the more exciting the system, the greater the likelihood of mass disappointment.  One last thing, I agree with the posters like myself who lived through the 80s.   We would go years and years without being in the 6-12, and even I've been spoiled by the last 15+ years where I come to expect 12".  How would anyone who's grown up in the 2000s/2010s *not* be disappointed with less than 6"? In the 80s I would be thrilled i I was in the 3-6 (the bright white in the TWC maps.)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

What do you think the reason for this is? I’ve followed Capital Weather Gang for years, and it’s either feast or famine there. (Famine more often than not, considering their geographic situation)


.

Washington, DC has high natural variability with respect to seasonal snowfall (standard deviation = 66% of annual snowfall for the 1884-85 through 2016-17 period). However, natural variability alone likely does not explain the decline in annual seasonal snowfall that has occurred. The historic average is 17.8" (excluding 2017-18). During the last 30 winters prior to the current one, average snowfall had declined to 13.9".

Variability had increased in absolute and relative terms. The standard deviation rose from 11.8" to 13.8" (66% annual snowfall to 99% annual snowfall).

I suspect Washington, DC's warming during the winter has contributed to both decreased average snowfall (more frequent low snowfall seasons) and increased variability. The historic December-March temperature was 39.1°. The December-March average temperature for the most recent 30 winters prior to the current winter was 41.0°. Statistically, the probability of a very warm winter (mean temperature of 43° or above) had risen quite dramatically from 5.7% over the historic period to 22.0% during the most recent 30 winters excluding the current one. The statistical probability of the City's experiencing severely cold winters (December-March mean temperature 37.0° or below) fell dramatically from 22.3% over the historic period to 7.6% during the referenced 30-winter period. In fact, the last such winter was 1977-78.

At the same time, the statistical probability of Washington DC's seeing less than 10" seasonal snowfall increased from 25% (historic period) to 39% for the referenced 30-winter period (around a 56% increase). Even worse, the city's statistical probability of seeing less than 5" seasonal snowfall rose from 14% to 26% (about an 85% increase). Put another way, the statistical probability of Washington DC's receiving less than 5" seasonal snowfall during the referenced 30-year period was approximately the same as its probability of seeing less than 10" has been over the historical period.

It should be noted that during the 1904-05 through 1919-20 period, Richmond had an average December-March temperature of 41.0° (identical to the referenced 30-year period). During that time, Richmond averaged 14.8" seasonal snowfall. During the most recent years, Richmond has seen notably less average seasonal snowfall.

The winter temperature trend has likely played a role.

 

 

[uncle W]

DC and surrounding areas have doubled in size in the last 50 years...the heat island has expanded as well...I blame the snow drought on the lobbyists...

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I used to do a poll years ago where I'd ask ' Would you rather jackpot with 8", or get 10" with someone nearby jackpotting with 16'?  The vote went 2-1 for the 8".  I gotta tell ya, if I'm being honest, I would go with the former too, and I think it's simply about expectations rather than jealousy.  This last storm crystallized something else too -- I don't know much, nothing technical in fact, about subsidence, but I know that a dynamic system with lots of it is going to have a high standard deviation with regard to amounts.  Thus, the more exciting the system, the greater the likelihood of mass disappointment.  One last thing, I agree with the posters like myself who lived through the 80s.   We would go years and years without being in the 6-12, and even I've been spoiled by the last 15+ years where I come to expect 12".  How would anyone who's grown up in the 2000s/2010s *not* be disappointed with less than 6"? In the 80s I would be thrilled i I was in the 3-6 (the bright white in the TWC maps.)

When you really look at it, humans are the only species that compete over who got more frozen precipitation.

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

When you really look at it, humans are the only species that compete over who got more frozen precipitation.

If dogs had internet access they would

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

What do you think the reason for this is? I’ve followed Capital Weather Gang for years, and it’s either feast or famine there. (Famine more often than not, considering their geographic situation)


.

They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. 

We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. 

[JerseyWx]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

If dogs had internet access they would

Lol, I really do wonder about the cognitive abilities of other animals.

BTW, this storm was very close to falling on the 25th anniversary of the '93 Superstorm.

[bluewave]

 

[Rjay]

If posts are disappearimg in this thread its a glitch  

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

If posts are disappearimg in this thread its a glitch  

Matrix-ing up in here

[Eduardo]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. 

We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. 

Great post!  I wonder which factor ENSO state or blocking (orientation and magnitude) plays a greater role.  I remember seeing a thread in their subforum discussing this topic some time ago.

I went to law school down in DC from 2010 to 2013.  As an extreme weather enthusiast, it was an incredibly frustrating place to be, save for some extreme heat.  Even severe T-Storm lines have a tendency to split before reaching the city.  Apparently there's some topography-related theory that accounts for it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Does yanksfan or whatever his username is now still post here?

What about PT?

[NJwx85]

Nice little snow pack refresher up here late last night into early this morning.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Nice little snow pack refresher up here late last night into early this morning.

How much did it puke?

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

How much did it puke?

It was really ripping out there for about 25 seconds 

[DaveTinNY]

Had a dusting on my driveway when I left for work at 5:45am.  Nada in Dutchess County.  Roads were dry.

[WeatherFeen2000]

I’m going to bust out my weather controlling tool and push Monday’s event north. Let’s see if it works. Euro should be north if it works and all the other models soon

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I’m going to bust out my weather controlling tool and push Monday’s event north. Let’s see if it works. Euro should be north if it works and all the other models soon

None for me thanks

[WeatherFeen2000]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

None for me thanks

In my opinion this is a dc and south chance for some snow unless my tools works. It was programmed to bring this a tucked 980 low

[Rjay]

Need lots of improvements.  H5 is a jumbled mess.  

[forkyfork]

...

[Paragon]

20 hours ago, snywx said:

No way!! but but the HV isn't part of the NYC metro. Only east of the boros 

Some really have unrealistic expectations.  I know the climatology of my immediate area and NYC and never thought that the chances of 10" or more was higher than like 5-10 pct.  Aside from the Superstorm (which changed to rain here anyway) it's never happened in my lifetime.  And with increased urbanization and climate change, the chances are likely that I won't ever see it- which is fine by me, because winter around here really is a DJF affair.

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, jm1220 said:

They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. 

We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. 

JM they are getting the first effects of ACC in our region because of them being further south.  That line will likely move up here in a few decades.  I feel bad for them because they have some really rabid snow enthusiasts.

[Paragon]

19 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Lol, I really do wonder about the cognitive abilities of other animals.

BTW, this storm was very close to falling on the 25th anniversary of the '93 Superstorm.

Animals like dogs, cats, elephants, some parrots, pigs, great apes, dolphins, etc are highly intelligent.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Some really have unrealistic expectations.  I know the climatology of my immediate area and NYC and never thought that the chances of 10" or more was higher than like 5-10 pct.  Aside from the Superstorm (which changed to rain here anyway) it's never happened in my lifetime.  And with increased urbanization and climate change, the chances are likely that I won't ever see it- which is fine by me, because winter around here really is a DJF affair.

If we were 5 degrees colder with both storms the coast sees 30"+ total in a 5 day span.

[Rjay]

If my mother was my uncle...   yea i get it. 

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Great post!  I wonder which factor ENSO state or blocking (orientation and magnitude) plays a greater role.  I remember seeing a thread in their subforum discussing this topic some time ago.

I went to law school down in DC from 2010 to 2013.  As an extreme weather enthusiast, it was an incredibly frustrating place to be, save for some extreme heat.  Even severe T-Storm lines have a tendency to split before reaching the city.  Apparently there's some topography-related theory that accounts for it.

Hey you get that here on Long Island too.  Its why I became a fan of extreme heat lol.

[North and West]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

...

I'm so sorry. We just had ours restored, and I hope yours will be too. Hope they're just managing expectations.

 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

If we were 5 degrees colder with both storms the coast sees 30"+ total in a 5 day span.

Yeah but even a 2 degree shift in temps almost requires a seismic event lol.  Notice how often the temps seem to get "stuck" at around 33-34 like it's some sort of barrier?  We really need these to be mostly night time events, which I feel sad about saying, because I find daytime snows very photogenic.

Unless you have a deep arctic airmass in place it's really hard to get temps that low this late in the season anymore.

 

[Paragon]

22 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

uniform snowfall distribution has become rare in recent years...these maps of snow fallen look much more convective in nature than in years past where the high # would be 10 and the low would be 6 over a large geographic area.

That's correct.  Our ideal storm actually isn't a coastal bomb, it's a massive area of overrunning attacking an arctic airmass.  These most often happen in El Ninos because of a juiced up STJ.  Our greatest storms came from that kind of pattern.  The region where I live is actually in a convective hole just as much in the winter as it is in the summer, but we usually jackpot as long as the temperatures are cold enough with the overrunning into arctic air set up- examples are Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016.