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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't know, 1 post overnight. this thread alone has 55,000 views.
Look what's happening in Texas... this is February 

texas.png

The severe season in Southern Texas will be starting soon.

Yesterday's convection was more bark than bite anyway, just look at the storm reports from SPC.

I sense you believe this has something to do with global warming. Convection/Thunderstorms are not uncommon in February, look at the storm reports from 2/28/17 and 3/1/17 alone

170228_rpts Reports Graphic170301_rpts Reports Graphic

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On 2/5/2018 at 6:19 PM, Cfa said:

Wow.

ISP’s record for December is 77°, and given the ongoing pattern of extremes I’d say this region’s first 80°+ met winter day is more of a question of when, not if.

Totally didn’t expect the possibility of such an event to come only 2 weeks after I posted this.

Edit: EWR hits 80+, remind me never to make any predictions regarding cold or snow.

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23 minutes ago, North and West said:

I wonder what the over/under is on how many friends I'll see post on FB/IG today that they're starting their gardens. (Pro tip: For the love of God/Dog, please don't do this.)

Everyone knows to wait until the clocks spring ahead so that the seedlings get that extra hour of daylight.

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Greetings! How did everyone enjoy the epic February torch? I guess the cold, get ready for the arctic freezer trough “opined” didn’t work out so well....

Welcome back.  How was your vaca?  

Get some calls right and then you can talk trash. 

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Watching PB bust hard was the best. Hopefully he got some humility now. It was beautiful 

He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

Yes, if the MJO had continued through Phases 8-1-2, instead of stalling in Phase 7, it would have been a much colder month. Models that were based on that MJO configuration had a nice +PNA. 

I was lucky to get 6"+ of snowfall this February despite the record warmth. Seasonal is 25.5" on an average of 28-30" here in the Northeast Bronx. Should exceed average with the progged pattern.

It will be interesting to see how a -NAO manifests itself given the extreme SSW and favorable alignment of the MJO. Should see a very wintry pattern in the March 1-15 period.

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35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

He wasn't the only one

Many people thought February was going to be cold and snowy

The MJO stalled in phase 7 which a lot of people didn't see that happening. Now it's moving along so expect more snow to come.

That's why it's so difficult to predict a pattern change a month out with any degree of certainty. One change can mess everything up

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52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's why it's so difficult to predict a pattern change a month out with any degree of certainty. One change can mess everything up

ENSO seasonal progressions were one of the few long range forecast tools that worked during the 2010's winters. Everything else was one new type of extreme after another.

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