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Winter 2017-18 banter thread

WeatherFeen2000

By WeatherFeen2000,
in New York City Metro

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

We should play a game. Anyone that's a weenie and Gets the next storm right can post all the time and is taken off the five post thing, anyone that anti weenie and snow but gets the next system wrong gets banned for a whole week 

lol.. you have been trying for so long to get that off. Weenie for life homie!

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

If anyone is thinking of accumulating snow during the second half of December, not just this year, but every year, forget about it. The setup is bad. The pattern is no good. It will be too warm and only rain. If it is cold enough, it will either be dry or storms will be suppressed out to sea.

Just look at the probabilities. In the 1950-2016 period, measurable snow events during this period have occurred on only 9.2% of days or about 1.5 times during the second half of December each year. Days with 4" or more snow have accounted for just 1.2% of days (occurring about once every 5.2 years).

The morale of the story is, always forecast against such events no matter what the pattern or guidance. Embrace persistence to an extreme fashion.

That's the easy way. Actually trying to forecast when such events will occur is more challenging and, therefore, more rewarding.

Certain patterns have a higher probability of snowfall events than others. All patterns are not identical. An AO-/PNA+ pattern is one such pattern. The percentage of days since 1950 with measurable snowfall is 11.5% and the percentage of days with 4" or more snowfall is 1.7%. In other words, the frequency of such events in such a pattern is 1.8 times for the second half of December and once every 3.6 years respectively. Those are meaningfully higher odds than the base probability for the second half of December as a whole.

In such patterns, it makes a lot of sense to pay attention to the guidance. At the extended range, the ensembles carry greater weight than the operational guidance. That there is a stormy signal is what matters.

As potential events move closer, then one pays greater attention to the global models. Details begin to come into focus. Confidence in a snowy outcome can rise or fall.

Within 12-36 hours, if the event appears likely or very likely, the mesoscale models can provide additional insight into areas where banding might occur, the best forcing will be located, etc.

Of course, the pessimists don't have to worry about the ensembles or models. After all, they've already embraced the preconceived idea that it won't snow and they maintain that idea with absolute certainty (even as meteorology is filled with an inherent degree of uncertainty). As if ripped out of a modified scene from "Groundhog Day," the forecast is always "no snow." Day after day, nothing changes.

Back to reality, even as nothing is assured, the forecast pattern is one that would be more conducive to snowfall events than the climatological frequency. Alternately, the GEFS and EPS have had a storm signal. Cold is forecast to be present. The pattern is likely to be active with one or two shots of snow before the end of the month. 

Of course, before then, there is the possibility that parts of the area from northern Westchester County northward and northern Fairfield/New Haven Counties northward might pick up enough snow for a white Christmas.

Somewhere out there, though, one can hear the pessimists pushing back. "No snow for you. Ever."

Of course, by the same line of thought, it has yet to snow anywhere in the region this month. The storm that brought 4" or more snow on the 9th was a mirage. It was not real.

Or was it? In fact, the climate records show that it did, in fact, snow that day. Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia all received 4" or more snow.

Happy holidays to all. Savor the opportunities for snowfall. It will snow again. Sure, there will be forecasting errors. There will be disappointment, even heartbreak from time to time. At the same time, one won't be imprisoned in a self-imposed, joyless, snowless state. There will be joy, too. The current winter still appears to be in line for above to much above normal seasonal snowfall.

One last thought: Allow the climatological probabilities to offer guidance and insight into patterns. Don't become a slave to rigid misinterpretations of the probabilities. Heeding such advice will provide one with a gift that never ceases giving.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

A number of us are actually behaving nicely as I now see plenty of material to work with in the various threads. Glad to see folks are jolly...

I guess I missed a lot of bad posts from earlier.  Did anything exciting happen since last night lol?

My policy is that when stuff like this is going on wait until the evening to log on when things seem more relaxed and avoid all the drama.

If you're not around to read it, you can't get drawn into it.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Rjay said:

If this comes west someone is going to get suspended for being so cocky yet wrong once again. 

Being  a mod sounds like a nearly thankless job lol..... but thank you for doing it anyway ;-)

 

You can't take a break to avoid the bad posting like some of us do.

 

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