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Winter 2017-18 banter thread


WeatherFeen2000

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22 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Glad to see @NorthShoreWx posting. Hope all is well with you and yours. 

Stickin out mate, thanks for asking!  Hope you are too!

It looks nice outside, but I'm getting the feeling this is one of those don't count your bullseye before its hatched days.  Best banding has been well to our west. 

However, the convection over the ocean was looking mildly interesting.  Hope springs eternal.  :)

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6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Stickin out mate, thanks for asking!  Hope you are too!

It looks nice outside, but I'm getting the feeling this is one of those don't count your bullseye before its hatched days.  Best banding has been well to our west. 

However, the convection over the ocean was looking mildly interesting.  Hope springs eternal.  :)

Looks like the mix line stayed to your east! :)

 

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At least a couple more potential shots of snow along with our coldest air of the season and then what? 

Euro/EPS has a brief mild up (near normal) before more cold air comes in, gfs much more sketchy. I see a +AO/NAO with a declining +PNA, which suggests a much stronger/more sustained warm surge right on cue for Grinchmas.

But then the pattern may reload by January.

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least a couple more potential shots of snow along with our coldest air of the season and then what? 

Euro/EPS has a brief mild up (near normal) before more cold air comes in, gfs much more sketchy. I see a +AO/NAO with a declining +PNA, which suggests a much stronger/more sustained warm surge right on cue for Grinchmas.

But then the pattern may reload by January.

I don't mind a mild last 10 days of December as long as we get something big in January.

 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rapid melting occuring this morning. 3 days around 40 should wipe most of the snowpack out by Tuesday

Upton got me near 50 Tuesday ahead of the clipper, so certainly expecting brown ground out here. North of us looks pretty solid to build snowcover prechristmas, hopefully we join them. 

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:
The morning low of 50° in #Miami (KMIA) makes it the coldest temperature in 652 days... since February 27, 2016. It never dropped this low even once last winter. #FLwx #FINALLY

I have a small weather station at my apt on north Miami Beach.. 49 was the low this morning there. 

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1 hour ago, Fantom X said:

I would really like to see a Feb 1899 cold wave repeat. With these extreme patterns lately and especially that we were able to experience Feb 2015 makes it seem possible now.

Jan 1977 got a couple of inches of snow down near Tampa and snow flurries all the way to Miami and Homestead, south of Miami!  They even had a dusting of snow in the Bahamas!

 

 

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Jan 1977 got a couple of inches of snow down near Tampa and snow flurries all the way to Miami and Homestead, south of Miami!  They even had a dusting of snow in the Bahamas!

 

 

I remember that. There were pictures on NBC news at 6 and saw it while eating dinner.

10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rapid melting occuring this morning. 3 days around 40 should wipe most of the snowpack out by Tuesday

This isn't a 'snowpack' it's just snow on the ground form one storm. I've always though of the pack being from storm on storm. I mentioned in a post yesterday that the ground temp was well above freezing and as the snow accumulated the soil temp was actually going up around 1 degree every 3 hours or so. By the time the snow stopped last night it was between 39<>43 up here and the lower layer was quite slushy. By this morning it had stabilized in the mid 30's and the snow was melting from underneath. 

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I remember that. There were pictures on NBC news at 6 and saw it while eating dinner.

This isn't a 'snowpack' it's just snow on the ground form one storm. I've always though of the pack being from storm on storm. I mentioned in a post yesterday that the ground temp was well above freezing and as the snow accumulated the soil temp was actually going up around 1 degree every 3 hours or so. By the time the snow stopped last night it was between 39<>43 up here and the lower layer was quite slushy. By this morning it had stabilized in the mid 30's and the snow was melting from underneath. 

True, then just snow. But some said it would stick around due to the deep freeze but that's still 3 days away

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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I remember that. There were pictures on NBC news at 6 and saw it while eating dinner.

This isn't a 'snowpack' it's just snow on the ground form one storm. I've always though of the pack being from storm on storm. I mentioned in a post yesterday that the ground temp was well above freezing and as the snow accumulated the soil temp was actually going up around 1 degree every 3 hours or so. By the time the snow stopped last night it was between 39<>43 up here and the lower layer was quite slushy. By this morning it had stabilized in the mid 30's and the snow was melting from underneath. 

Any idea why the soil temp would increase like that during a snowfall? I'm imagining something along the lines of latent heat release from melting and refreezing snow causing a feedback loop but that's probably way more complicated than the actual answer. 

Either way, most of my nearly 6" is already gone with swaths of bare grass opening up. I have one of the best radiating sites in the region and do pretty well in most snowstorms relative to surrounding towns, but living on a giant south-facing slope is the price I pay.

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6 hours ago, nzucker said:

Which leads to this record breaking -EPO:

 

 

I am going to call it the great blocking shift of 2013. Dominant NH high latitude blocking switched from the NAO region to the EPO area. Something around the beginning of 2013 caused most of the extreme blocking to shift over to the NE PAC from the NATL. 

IMG_0025.PNG.6bc21c0e6a67239e050eafe1ad48ddff.PNG

IMG_0024.PNG.47d5264566926410830f68143468f530.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I remember that. There were pictures on NBC news at 6 and saw it while eating dinner.

This isn't a 'snowpack' it's just snow on the ground form one storm. I've always though of the pack being from storm on storm. I mentioned in a post yesterday that the ground temp was well above freezing and as the snow accumulated the soil temp was actually going up around 1 degree every 3 hours or so. By the time the snow stopped last night it was between 39<>43 up here and the lower layer was quite slushy. By this morning it had stabilized in the mid 30's and the snow was melting from underneath. 

I noticed that as my kids were playing in it yesterday-muddy and slushy.  tough to keep snow on the ground this year with the warm ground even if it's cold outside.  

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