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December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

EPS says it's going to be uber cold after the storm passes

eps_t850a_noram_25.png

eps_t850a_noram_29.png

If this storm develops, depending upon the positioning of the incoming high behind that storm if those winds are 320-350 I think NYC goes below zero and maybe several degrees below.  That’s even if we don’t see significant snows.  If we have a snowpack even better 

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If this storm develops, depending upon the positioning of the incoming high behind that storm if those winds are 320-350 I think NYC goes below zero and maybe several degrees below.  That’s even if we don’t see significant snows.  If we have a snowpack even better 

12z EPS has even got colder for NYC for the arctic outbreak after the storm. It now has lows of 3, 1 and 1 for Jan 5th, Jan 6th and Jan 7th, respectively.

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9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Thanks Don:

I recorded 59.8 inches of snow during that period NYC (Central Park) recorded 49.1 inches of snow. That was also the period NYC went 50 consecutive days with snow on the ground, with 44 consecutive days of at least 6 inches of snow on the ground during that stretch. I had forgotten how nice that winter was, and only three years ago. Snow and cold, it still can happen.

Wasn't it shortly after that, I believe beginning in July 2015 that we began that horrible streak of 22 consecutive months above normal?

I thought that was winter 2010-11- did 2014-15 also have that many consecutive days of snow cover?

I know it was Boston's record winter, but we mostly got the edges of the big storms that season.

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If this storm develops, depending upon the positioning of the incoming high behind that storm if those winds are 320-350 I think NYC goes below zero and maybe several degrees below.  That’s even if we don’t see significant snows.  If we have a snowpack even better 

Yeah I'm looking for that to be the coldest nights of the year, hopefully we can get to below zero, we should with all this cold around, at least set a few records.

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4 hours ago, Paragon said:

I thought that was winter 2010-11- did 2014-15 also have that many consecutive days of snow cover?

I know it was Boston's record winter, but we mostly got the edges of the big storms that season.

2010-11 was similar but Jan 27 through March 11 2015 saw at least 6 inches of snow on the ground in Central Park. I had to double check but it's correct, how quickly we forget.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

2010-11 was similar but Jan 27 through March 11 2015 saw at least 6 inches of snow on the ground in Central Park. I had to double check but it's correct, how quickly we forget.

I loved that winter but it's weird how many complain about it because of the fringing of Jan 20th.

Did 2014-15 have longer snowcover than 2010-11?

 

 

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At 8 am, NYC had a temperature of 14°. The five consecutive days with low temperatures below 20° is the longest such stretch since the 5-day period from February 11 through February 15, 2016.

Monthly Mean Temperature for NYC Through:

12/30 35.7° (1.9° below normal)
12/31 34.9°-35.1° (12/29 estimate: 34.9°-35.3°)

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (12/30 estimate: >99.9%).

Yesterday's clipper brought 1.9" snow to Bridgeport, 1.3" to Islip, 0.7" to New York City, 0.5" to Newark, and 0.9" to Philadelphia. Monthly snowfall amounts for those cities are 8.7", 6.0", 7.7", 7.7", and 8.6" respectively.

Winter 2017-18 remains on course for above to possibly much above normal snowfall in the region.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

After another week of temps in the teens and single digits we should see ice on area waters not scene since January 77. I’m heading out to take some pics of the bat near my house. It will be interesting to compare them to this time next week.

Some of the East Rockaway small inlets were already frozen up on Friday. There will be ice all through Reynolds Channel in another week at this rate. 

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Down to 11° here.

Very unusual for the lowest temp of the year to occur outside of Jan/Feb. In my case, both March (15°) and December (<11°) featured colder minimums than January (16°) and February (19°).

My Dec figure is the only one free of UHI influence, but even with UHI influence it would’ve been colder than Jan/Feb.

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9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

After another week of temps in the teens and single digits we should see ice on area waters not scene since January 77. I’m heading out to take some pics of the bat near my house. It will be interesting to compare them to this time next week.

I'm enthused about this too, but the late February 2015 ice was very impressive.  Not as impressive as 1977, but we'll need some more sustained cold beyond this week to get past 2015.

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