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December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Seems like we are one month ahead of the 13-14 winter pattern. We are getting more of a January 2014 pattern in December 2017. Maybe January 2018 will be like February 2014 with the trough pulling back to the west with a colder -EPO/-PNA pattern.

IMG_0026.PNG.60ac000c2b8195764237c06cf86d55b5.PNG

IMG_0027.PNG.d1d33543d8553eaf7afc39583c175fa6.PNG

 

 

The Euro Monthlies had that too. Not the latest one though. The one from last month.

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of the same theme on the 12z EPS. EPO block trending stronger around Christmas and the NAO more positive. The winning play since the 13-14 winter has been to go long the -EPO and short the -NAO.

12z today

eps_z500a_nh_336.thumb.png.0c92ff48e0214bfebf121ba9cf1f9ec1.png

12z yesterday

eps_z500a_nh_360.thumb.png.75b2a230efb2c6a0b3cdd7b171222fe5.png

 

 

 

 

The pacific runs the show.  Although I would like to see more of a negative AO that’s still a sweet pattern if it’s right 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nearly every -EPO drop of the recent winters has been accompanied by accumulating snow here. It has been a very reliable signal.

 

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, well be right where we want to be in the battle zone!!

Especially as climo increasingly becomes our friend in coming weeks.  I cannot remember, what was the ENSO configuration back in the 13-14 winter?  Neutral if I recall correctly?  Also wondering how the NPM we discussed a few weeks back might factor in....

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's not a bad look, yes the SE ridge could get problematic at times but it may also help us get storms like in 13/14. 

It's not a KU pattern but I think they'll be plenty of chances for moderate events. 

13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat.  Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score).

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32 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat.  Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score).

Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back.

Yes should that transpire, I'll shift my (weenieish) faith back towards the tendency of early-season high-latitude blocking to predominate through the winter.  Isn't that essentially what happened in 05-06?  Intense January pullback, followed by a return of winter?  Although, I feel like that winter would've gone down as a total letdown were it not for the fortune we had with the February blizzard.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back.

The weeklies are now showing what Isotherm was talking about for January with the forcing shifting and the pattern going to a classic La Niña look 

 

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28 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yes should that transpire, I'll shift my (weenieish) faith back towards the tendency of early-season high-latitude blocking to predominate through the winter.  Isn't that essentially what happened in 05-06?  Intense January pullback, followed by a return of winter?  Although, I feel like that winter would've gone down as a total letdown were it not for the fortune we had with the February blizzard.

we torched most of the winter after the blizzard-the snow melted within 4-5 days with temps in the 50's following the storm.   I don't really remember it getting cold after that...

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nearly every -EPO drop of the recent winters has been accompanied by accumulating snow here. It has been a very reliable signal.

Doesn't that mean more mixed events for us?  Could be big inland and more mixed events for the coast.  We need some AO/NAO blocking

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2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat.  Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score).

I actually liked 14-15 more.  13-14 was full of mixed events for the shore.

 

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Why did he throw Jan 2011 in there lol, that was cold and snowy.

January 2011 is when the blocking completely broke down that winter (10-11). The blocking slowly started to breakdown around mid-month, then by the end of January it was completely gone and never came back again, right through April. Had the blocking stayed around, we almost certainly would have surpassed the 95-96 winter’s snowfall record, we were well on our way in mid January, 2011 before it all collapsed 

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

January 2011 is when the blocking completely broke down that winter (10-11). The blocking slowly started to breakdown around mid-month, then by the end of January it was completely gone and never came back again, right through April. Had the blocking stayed around, we almost certainly would have surpassed the 95-96 winter’s snowfall record, we were well on our way in mid January, 2011 before it all collapsed 

most epic winter patterns tend to last 4-6 weeks and that's it--this (10-11) is a classic example.   77-78 had the 3 storms all about 3-4 weeks apart-there was little snow after the big one in early Feb 78

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

most epic winter patterns tend to last 4-6 weeks and that's it--this (10-11) is a classic example.   77-78 had the 3 storms all about 3-4 weeks apart-there was little snow after the big one in early Feb 78

2010-11 was a lot like 1960-61, another great winter.  That one had the storms spread out more though.  Both had three major storms.

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4 hours ago, Paragon said:

I actually liked 14-15 more.  13-14 was full of mixed events for the shore.

 

Yeah those were two of the best back-to-back winters I can remember in my lifetime (although I lived in DC from 2010 to 2013 and saw about four flakes of snow down there throughout..I don't know how those guys down there keep their sanity).  The single-digit snowstorm in January 2015 was absolutely incredible.  not sure I'll ever see something like that again.

I am hoping that we score some decent events throughout the remainder of the holiday season if the pattern really is going to break down afterwards and we start sucking PAC air.  Would be difficult to mount a comeback if we end up punting January, absent a great deal of luck in the form of a robust MJO wave, SSW, etc.

Right now, just trying to enjoy what's in front of us.  Looks like we do have our chances throughout the next few weeks!

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5 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah those were two of the best back-to-back winters I can remember in my lifetime (although I lived in DC from 2010 to 2013 and saw about four flakes of snow down there throughout..I don't know how those guys down there keep their sanity).  The single-digit snowstorm in January 2015 was absolutely incredible.  not sure I'll ever see something like that again.

I am hoping that we score some decent events throughout the remainder of the holiday season if the pattern really is going to break down afterwards and we start sucking PAC air.  Would be difficult to mount a comeback if we end up punting January, absent a great deal of luck in the form of a robust MJO wave, SSW, etc.

Right now, just trying to enjoy what's in front of us.  Looks like we do have our chances throughout the next few weeks!

I think you would have really liked 2009-10 / 2010-11 too.  Also had big heat in the summer in between to keep the whole year exciting lol.

 

 

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