Spanks45 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it's the very early stages of the seasonal La Nina ridge pull back along the West Coast that we were expecting. We get a few days of relaxation and then the next phase of the triple R ridge starts building over Alaska and Canada gets very cold. You can see the very strong Arctic high beginning to build over Alaska. So we will get a fresh supply of Arctic air after the relaxation. Looks like a classic overrunning set up with waves of energy ejection to the NE into the Arctic air. Setting the stages for an ice storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 48 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Setting the stages for an ice storm.... Probably for the Southeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Probably for the Southeast US. Yeah I agree. As modeld the cold air would win out up here. Subject to change of course. Let’s just keep the snow events coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Feels and looks like snow outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or about 4degs. BN. Used 36/30 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Last 10 days of the month look questionable now for BN status, before BN regime resumes in first part of Jan. In addition, CFS continues moderating the first 6 months of 2018 from the "forget the red hues" continent wide freeze, to a more believable mottled look. Maybe it had malfuntioned for a while w/o anyone telling us so. Multi snow threats abound, but none look like storms right now for us, just variable degree snow events. Clearly, Week 1 is colder than Week 2 and we are struggling with the current event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 hours ago, CIK62 said: Last 10 days of the month look questionable now for BN status, before BN regime resumes in first part of Jan. In addition, CFS continues moderating the first 6 months of 2018 from the "forget the red hues" continent wide freeze, to a more believable mottled look. Maybe it had malfuntioned for a while w/o anyone telling us so. Multi snow threats abound, but none look like storms right now for us, just variable degree snow events. Clearly, Week 1 is colder than Week 2 and we are struggling with the current event today. So chances are decreasing for snowfall between Dec 23 and Jan 1? At least Jan looks better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: So chances are decreasing for snowfall between Dec 23 and Jan 1? At least Jan looks better now. Not at all We will have a few more chances this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Next 8 days continues to average 34degs., or about 4degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 So chances are decreasing for snowfall between Dec 23 and Jan 1? At least Jan looks better now. Models couldnt get the last event right 36 hours out. Anything LR this year is a dartboard toss. Pattern overall looks ok, no major prolonged warmups. MJO forecast is good. We dont need extreme teleconnection indices to get snow. Overwhelming cold can be our enemy.....seasonal to just BN is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yesterday's snowstorm brought 4" or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Such a widespread 4" or greater snowfall in December has often provided an early indication of what would go on to become a snowy or very snowy winter. Below is a list of such storms (1950-2016) and New York City's total snowfall for the winter. December 3-4, 1957: 44.7" December 11-13, 1960: 54.7" December 23-24, 1963: 44.7" December 23-25, 1966: 51.5" December 25-28, 1969: 25.6" December 5, 2002: 49.3" December 18-21, 2009: 51.4" Mean: 46.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Perhaps the lowest temperatures for the month of December around the holidays as the EPS takes the MJO into the coldest and snowiest phases for us. This is when we could potentially see our heaviest snowfall so far this winter from late December into early January. Chris , A major Arctic outbreak is probably in the cards day 13 to 17 ( either side of a day ). Thats attached to a major arctic high and being that's in the L/R once a few warmer members get washed out , that will probably look more purple than anything else .The entire vortex will drop into the lakes. That looks like the coldest air of the month just in time for Christmas . There is only a 2 day relaxation period over the next 15 days centered (day 8 - 9 )and that is incredibly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Paul, I agree. The mean blocking position this week near the PAC NW pulls back closer to Alaska around the holidays. Very strong Arctic high pressure begins to build and eventually slides SE toward our area. Could be our coldest holiday week Arctic outbreak here in a while. It's impressive how the EPS 2m t signal is usually muted day 11-15 and it's already so bullish on the cold. The cold signal will probably keep getting stronger as we get closer. Could be dry for a few days because that's going to be such a dominant feature but when it elongates , I agree with you look out being in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 if Christmas is brown we will look back at this storm and say it should have come two weeks later...But if we get more snow and Christmas is white this year will go down as a great two weeks leading up to Christmas...maybe the greatest if the models are correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Even some nice cold coming this week with many of us in the teens, Wed-Fri. mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: No let up in sight for the very impressive WPAC forcing pattern maintaining the extreme blocking over Western North America. The SST's out there just set a new warmth record for the month of November. And you see the guidance continually put the neg right over the same area. That will just keep translating to a mean trough in the east. I agree that the week between Christmas and New Years watch the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, doncat said: Even some nice cold coming this week with many of us in the teens, Wed-Fri. mornings. Snow squalls will reach a few this week on the coast after Tuesdays clipper rides by to the N The H/V into NNJ will snow on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I wonder how many times a strong low pressure dropping SE into North Dakota during -NAO has missed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 When does the “warmup” happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: When does the “warmup” happen? Day 8 and 9 , trough back day 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Day 8 and 9 , trough back day 11 How intense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: How intense? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: How intense? A few above , the EPS is plus 3 for 2 days. The front 7 are cold and the 11 to 15 are as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Euro and hrrr shows a little snow showers for tonight for the area. Maybe a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Gfs shows the complete opposite with massive eastern and W Atlantic ridging for Christmas. It does get a strong -EPO going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Gfs shows the complete opposite with massive eastern and W Atlantic ridging for Christmas. It does get a strong -EPO going. It's an op run in the long range You should know better to take the ops run with a grain of salt in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's an op run in the long range You should know better to take the ops run with a grain of salt in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go. It's fine if it's mild in the last 10 days of the month as long as it reloads for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 hours ago, bluewave said: Perhaps the lowest temperatures for the month of December around the holidays as the EPS takes the MJO into the coldest and snowiest phases for us. This is when we could potentially see our heaviest snowfall so far this winter from late December into early January. It remains to be seen if the timing will be more like what we got in late December 2010 or it will follow the more classic pattern of Dec 1995-Jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday's snowstorm brought 4" or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Such a widespread 4" or greater snowfall in December has often provided an early indication of what would go on to become a snowy or very snowy winter. Below is a list of such storms (1950-2016) and New York City's total snowfall for the winter. December 3-4, 1957: 44.7" December 11-13, 1960: 54.7" December 23-24, 1963: 44.7" December 23-25, 1966: 51.5" December 25-28, 1969: 25.6" December 5, 2002: 49.3" December 18-21, 2009: 51.4" Mean: 46.0" Don, it's impressive that only one of those winters was under 40"! Median is right around 50" With 3 in the 40s, and 3 in the 50s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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