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December 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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Monday looks a little breezy in the warm sector of that developing low.  925 mb winds of 40-50 kts and decent mixing in the low levels, so could see some gusts maybe even approaching advisory criteria in some areas.  Might be windy post-frontal too if the deeper Euro verifies.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will be in Chicago this weekend....looks sunny and mild. This will literally be it with the cold impending. Some snow would have been nice but oh well.

My wife will be in Chicago Sunday night and Monday night.

Fortunately her employer is paying for her. She gets to stay at a posh hotel. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is a pretty impressive temperature map for midnight central time on December 5. 60s into Wisconsin?

GFSMW_sfc_temp_084.png.e1a71c6b8abef02f564e433a7b1b6553.png

Might break or at least get within a few degrees of some records depending on the magnitude of the warm-up, which of course has a way of overachieving in the warm sector.  ORD's are 66 for the 4th and 68 for the 5th (question for the latter day would be where the midnight high ends up).  

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Not that I am believing this but, I would love this to happen.  12"+ of heavy wet snow to replenish all that we have lost over the last 2-3 weeks.

The storm track and strength for this run of the gfs is very similar to April 1, 2014 storm that I got 18".  Didn't think I would ever compare that spring snowstorm to something happening in December. 

gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

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I think the Monday wind is getting underplayed a little.  Still think there could be gusts near advisory criteria in the warm sector... if not during the daylight hours then by evening.  It's usually not as favorable of a location for stronger gusts as the post frontal/CAA regime, but in this case we have a deepening surface low which results in a pressure gradient of near/over 50 mb between the sfc low and the sfc high around New England.

The instantweathermaps gust maps are really bullish with an area of 50+ mph but imo that is probably overdone.  

  USA_GUSTM_sfc_063-1.gif.4b79b620a0f6e9ad7752b4b493798065.gif

USA_GUSTM_sfc_063.gif.32bebf91b48cbd58ee70b75d0fbacdbc.gif

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1 hour ago, (((Will))) said:

Where do you live around the Lake of the Woods? I'm really...really...interested in that area. It seems awesome to me. I guess I prefer the snow...but I do miss the deep cold I used to get before I moved here (I was in far norther Maine near the Quebec/New Brunswick border in Fort Kent)

Baudette MN. We have not one, but two cold weather winter vehicle testing sites within minutes of town. One of them has been used in Honda/Acura tv ads.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think the Monday wind is getting underplayed a little.  Still think there could be gusts near advisory criteria in the warm sector... if not during the daylight hours then by evening.  It's usually not as favorable of a location for stronger gusts as the post frontal/CAA regime, but in this case we have a deepening surface low which results in a pressure gradient of near/over 50 mb between the sfc low and the sfc high around New England.

The instantweathermaps gust maps are really bullish with an area of 50+ mph but imo that is probably overdone.  

  USA_GUSTM_sfc_063-1.gif.4b79b620a0f6e9ad7752b4b493798065.gif

USA_GUSTM_sfc_063.gif.32bebf91b48cbd58ee70b75d0fbacdbc.gif

Someone on NWSChat asked IWX point blank about the possibilities of wind advisories for Monday/Tuesday and they advised that they are not anticipating it. If the NAM comes even close to verifying, they may eat their words.

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