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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

 

 

Ok, so from what I can see these two quotes are completely opposite?   One guy says it(LR) looks incredible, the other says the LR is wretched?   The GFS says one thing at 0z, and then the complete Opposite at 6z?  Obviously it's an OP run and all that....just amazing how opposite the two posts are. 

I think we were focusing on different time frames as well.  nzucker was looking at the end of the run (the 27th) whereas I was looking at the week leading up to Christmas.  Anyway all the but the last Grinch storm was gone in the latest run so the GFS be GFSing

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With a deepening -EPO and a burgeoning block, I will go out on a limb and say, ain't happening James. GFS shows the trough too far west based on this look. I would totally expect this to change a lot if that configuration was to hold

gfs_z500a_nhem_48.png

Tell that to the 1980s....lol.   It can happen and hopefully won’t.

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12z GFS does what the other past runs couldn't do, and so did the NAM, they moved that front shortwave out faster, in fact, the NAM develops it into a nice coastal storm 3-6" deal for the Cape, while the GFS keeps it weak and fast and allows the second shortwave the more powerful shortwave to dig further west and impact the coastline into the CT River Valley with warning snows, maybe a foot on the Cape

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5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

12z GFS does what the other past runs couldn't do, and so did the NAM, they moved that front shortwave out faster, in fact, the NAM develops it into a nice coastal storm 3-6" deal for the Cape, while the GFS keeps it weak and fast and allows the second shortwave the more powerful shortwave to dig further west and impact the coastline into the CT River Valley with warning snows, maybe a foot on the Cape

Time to fire up a thread for a foot of snizzles on the island. 

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