Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[Hoth]

37 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I’d like to hear from the level headed seasoned Mets about this before I go polluting threads with my twitter banter.

Good policy.

On a side note, I'd wait a few more days before tossing the storm next week. Given the data sparse source region of our s/w, it may be a few more days before things snap into focus. Would favor the Euro at this lead, but doubt any of the guidance have a lock yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So we have lurker, leo, Kevin now surging forward in a phalanx of warmth.

This comes right from Scooter. Ask him 

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This comes right from Scooter. Ask him 

I’m sure he’ll respond.  A brief warmup is modeled and has been for days as I posted yesterday.  Operative word is brief.  Leo and lurker found some person on accuwx bb who says winters over for awhile and scooter specifically debunked that idea.

[CoastalWx]

Ugh.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ugh.

??

[CoastalWx]

Here is how I see it. Before the 19th, the ridge in NW Canada and AK flattens out a bit while some energy dives into the Plains. Usually this is not an ideal situation for us, but it could also turn into a messy overrunning deal too. Who knows, but I think it is wise to be open to warmer possibilities. For the sake of some of your sanity.  As the pattern reshuffles and reloads a bit, it's possible another cold dump happens in the Plains again prior to Christmas. Again if that happens we may walk the line. It's not a certainty and the GEFS are colder. All I am saying is that the warmer solutions happen many times in these type of reshuffles. Nothing is guaranteed...but something to watch. Looks like we reload again with no signs of a pattern breakdown.   The EPO goes very negative near Christmas. I would expect a big cold dump into the Plains if that happens and spreads east. Maybe another wintry period after Christmas?  But the whole talk of winter on a hiatus seems silly to me. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

??

I meant the calling out.

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is how I see it. Before the 19th, the ridge in NW Canada and AK flattens out a bit while some energy dives into the Plains. Usually this is not an ideal situation for us, but it could also turn into a messy overrunning deal too. Who knows, but I think it is wise to be open to warmer possibilities. For the sake of some of your sanity.  As the pattern reshuffles and reloads a bit, it's possible another cold dump happens in the Plains again prior to Christmas. Again if that happens we may walk the line again. It's not a certainty and the GEFS are colder. All I am saying is that the warmer solutions happen many times in these type of reshuffles. Nothing is guaranteed...but something to watch. Looks like we reload again with no signs of a pattern breakdown.   The EPO goes very negative near Christmas. I would expect a big cold dump into the Plains if that happens and spreads east. Maybe another wintry period after Christmas?  But the whole talk of winter on a hiatus seems silly to me. 

My money is on a grinch situation for Christmas.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

My money is on a grinch situation for Christmas.  

I hope not. I'm also not implying anything...but since it's an extended pattern talk...we talk here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is how I see it. Before the 19th, the ridge in NW Canada and AK flattens out a bit while some energy dives into the Plains. Usually this is not an ideal situation for us, but it could also turn into a messy overrunning deal too. Who knows, but I think it is wise to be open to warmer possibilities. For the sake of some of your sanity.  As the pattern reshuffles and reloads a bit, it's possible another cold dump happens in the Plains again prior to Christmas. Again if that happens we may walk the line. It's not a certainty and the GEFS are colder. All I am saying is that the warmer solutions happen many times in these type of reshuffles. Nothing is guaranteed...but something to watch. Looks like we reload again with no signs of a pattern breakdown.   The EPO goes very negative near Christmas. I would expect a big cold dump into the Plains if that happens and spreads east. Maybe another wintry period after Christmas?  But the whole talk of winter on a hiatus seems silly to me. 

Well that looks nothing like what you told me early this morning. Nothing . Go back and read it . That’s not fair 

[dryslot]

Life can be cruel at times.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that looks nothing like what you told me early this morning. Nothing . Go back and read it . That’s not fair 

I said to more or less respect the warmer outcomes. I still feel that way. This should not be earth shattering news to some. Hopefully my thoughts are wrong and its colder. 

[dendrite]

It must be a sad way to go through life being afraid to live because of worrying about dying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like below zero next Thursday morning with the deep pack . At least low single digits 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is how I see it. Before the 19th, the ridge in NW Canada and AK flattens out a bit while some energy dives into the Plains. Usually this is not an ideal situation for us, but it could also turn into a messy overrunning deal too. Who knows, but I think it is wise to be open to warmer possibilities. For the sake of some of your sanity.  As the pattern reshuffles and reloads a bit, it's possible another cold dump happens in the Plains again prior to Christmas. Again if that happens we may walk the line. It's not a certainty and the GEFS are colder. All I am saying is that the warmer solutions happen many times in these type of reshuffles. Nothing is guaranteed...but something to watch. Looks like we reload again with no signs of a pattern breakdown.   The EPO goes very negative near Christmas. I would expect a big cold dump into the Plains if that happens and spreads east. Maybe another wintry period after Christmas?  But the whole talk of winter on a hiatus seems silly to me. 

for what it's probably not worth ...

i've noticed an ~ 4 or 5 day lag on EPO phase transitions wrt to temperature anomaly/correlation this far east over N/A ... just sayn'

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

for what it's probably not worth ...

i've noticed an ~ 4 or 5 day lag on EPO phase transitions wrt to temperature anomaly/correlation this far east over N/A ... just sayn'

Yeah the adjustment period isn't abrupt for sure. I'm not trying to be a debbie or anything like that...but in my eyes..the relaxation when these happen sometimes feature a mild solution for the east. Maybe it will just be overrunning or a SWFE.

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It must be a sad way to go through life being afraid to live because of worrying about dying. 

Wait until some read this last page and see that Scott canceled winter, Oh Momma.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It must be a sad way to go through life being afraid to live because of worrying about dying. 

i like that Brian... 

human sentience is a bit of a paradox in that way.  we are so acutely aware of the concept of "death,"  ...while in life.   here comes the arguments about how other animals display certain behaviors that signify some sort of awareness on some level. i wouldn't dispute that.  i've had pets that wondered off and died in the woods instead of curling up in their favored haunted bedding, and that is common among mammal species.   the, "i just wanna be alone" exit...  

but, there is something acutely different in human awareness of cause-and-effect, that cannot be disputed, nor, disconnected from the awareness of life versus death that other animals really do not present much awareness.  as we go down the sentience scale, animals are lesser and lesser cognizant of this cause-and-effect relationship. ...certainly, does the monkey muse the paradox of ambition, when in a 100 years we'll all be dead and no one will care, anyway...  

in 2 billion years, the sun will begin fusing helium instead of hydrogen .. .it will balloon to engulf the orbital region of the inner worlds of this solar system.  Odds overwhelmingly are that our species would have long been removed from that evolutionary time scale ... anyway, but at that time, there will be no Earth.  any vague, vestigial Archeological trace of this thing called Humanity ... will be less than vapor. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the adjustment period isn't abrupt for sure. I'm not trying to be a debbie or anything like that...but in my eyes..the relaxation when these happen sometimes feature a mild solution for the east. Maybe it will just be overrunning or a SWFE.

oh, absolutely agree ...  

the -EPO ... the flow first sharpens and heights fall around 100 W so vigorously at first ...say 50% of the time, you get a height pop up response that retros the west atlantic medium back westward... possibly a Minnesota blizzard in there... Then, -EPO either reforms while the PNA struggles to "fill in" the heights underneath, or, it collapses into the PNA domain space ...either way, the cold pooling increases in size and the wave lengths also lengthen... The trough broadens out and then we assess what form of down stream negatives we'll get.  that's the art of it... the assessing. 

but anyway, when the -EPO first flexes in, there is a pretty significant correlation for 2- 3 days stint of ridging east of 100 or 90W ... not every time...no.  

[Whineminster]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i like that Brian... 

human sentience is a bit of a paradox in that way.  we are so acutely aware of the concept of "death,"  ...while in life.   here comes the arguments about how other animals display certain behaviors that signify some sort of awareness on some level. i wouldn't dispute that.  i've had pets that wondered off and died in the woods instead of curling up in their favored haunted bedding, and that is common among mammal species.   the, "i just wanna be alone" exit...  

but, there is something acutely different in human awareness of cause-and-effect, that cannot be disputed, nor, disconnected from the awareness of life versus death that other animals really do not present much awareness.  as we go down the sentience scale, animals are lesser and lesser cognizant of this cause-and-effect relationship. ...certainly, does the monkey muse the paradox of ambition, when in a 100 years we'll all be dead and no one will care, anyway...  

in 2 billion years, the sun will begin fusing helium instead of hydrogen .. .it will balloon to engulf the orbital region of the inner worlds of this solar system.  Odds overwhelmingly are that our species would have long been removed from that evolutionary time scale ... anyway, but at that time, there will be no Earth.  any vague, vestigial Archeological trace of this thing called Humanity ... will be less than vapor. 

That's not depressing.  

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

That's not depressing.  

Lmao...we went from a relaxation/mild up/reload, to the Sun ballooning out and burning up all the inner planets including Earth in a few Billion years, and Humanity being nothing more than a vapor in history.    

 

Hey I like the pattern going forward...details to be determined as always.  Enjoy the snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

That's not depressing.  

hence the paradox ...  

i forgot to hone that opening, parenthetical statement .. heh, but, what's the purpose of this sentience when at the end of it, there has to be such fear?  

not hard to see why there was a necessity for religion along the way of human evolution ...  But, the "religion gene" (as it's noted/found) is probably also an advantage to survival of the tribe, because it galvanizes and bring communities together...etc...etc...  But in there, offers a counter-appealing concept of perpetuity beyond reality - 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Life can be cruel at times.

Lol.

The pattern is threatening to steal our snow.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Lol.

The pattern is threatening to steal our snow.

Only 2 more weeks until the days start getting longer.

[dryslot]

Then we will have to battle higher sun angles too.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

in 2 billion years, the sun will begin fusing helium instead of hydrogen .. .it will balloon to engulf the orbital region of the inner worlds of this solar system.  Odds overwhelmingly are that our species would have long been removed from that evolutionary time scale ... anyway, but at that time, there will be no Earth.  any vague, vestigial Archeological trace of this thing called Humanity ... will be less than vapor. 

And in another few trillion years after that, the accelerating expansion of the universe will become so great that all matter right down to the atomic scale will tear itself apart. No physical record of our universe will remain. But let's not let our brows sicklie oer with the pale cast of thought. We have snowstorms to track.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

And in another few trillion years after that, the accelerating expansion of the universe will become so great that all matter right down to the atomic scale will tear itself apart. No physical record of our universe will remain. But let's not let our brows sicklie oer with the pale cast of thought. We have snowstorms to track.

 

word, ... perhaps the devil's greatest triumph over god is the finality of existence -

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It must be a sad way to go through life being afraid to live because of worrying about dying. 

Years ago some wise person (no idea of the name) once said words to the effect of, "It's foolish to spend one's years in an attempt to extend them."

Enjoy the pattern.  It's the only pattern we've got (for now.)

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Years ago some wise person (no idea of the name) once said words to the effect of, "It's foolish to spend one's years in an attempt to extend them."

Enjoy the pattern.  It's the only pattern we've got (for now.)

The thing is we understand the nature of the worry.  But for me now that the years on earth are diminishing-I have no worries of what happens in a week or 2-don’t lose sight of the present-once today is gone you’ve lost it forever.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Only 2 more weeks until the days start getting longer.

 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Then we will have to battle higher sun angles too.

The struggle is real.   The importance and ultimate outcome of the pattern over the next 2 weeks will make or break the sanity of many.