OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 At the risk of getting too many weenies out of their buns, that middle of next week system has some potential. Models are spitting out a really nice lobe of PV from the Polar vortex that wants to get involved. For the time being it's really wrapping the system up over Canada, but whatever forms should be awfully powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yeah that is a better look on the GFS. Nice s/w coming through the OV with some confluence to the north. A little toasty in srn and ern areas, but an improvement for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 i'm still a little concerned about the gradient saturation and the fact that the flow is relatively imcompressible at finite scales... that's needed because we want to ripple out (conceptually) s/w ridge components of the total wave space to keep this from being too flat/progressive/ late booming... I suspect that 'wound up in Canada' thing you mentioned is related to the velocity surplus .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, tamarack said: I keep reading comments like this, look at my data, and scratch my head. Maybe it's just a location thing, or maybe nightmares about the mega-torch of Dec. 2015. The past 5 Decembers here have averaged 22.4F, which is 0.2F above my 19-year average. 2012 23.5 2013 15.6 (My coldest Dec here) 2014 25.0 2015 29.7 2016 18.4 For BOS: 2012: +3.9 2013: -1.2 2014: +3.5 2015: +10.6! 2016: +0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Keeping a close eye on Christmas. Getting in range now despite being at the end of the run. Fingers crossed no grinch this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice snow depth sustaining cold coming through in medium range should CNE/NNE get a nice dump of snow from mid-week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I hope for a white christmas. The 00Z Euro Ensemble suggest a brief relaxation on the 19th of December but the cold pattern reloads quickly and leads us into the 22nd of December. From Ed Vallee-twitter page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12z gfs looks like shades of feb 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: 12z gfs looks like shades of feb 15 Except the nice Grinch cutter on 12/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yeah we’ll see how the next 2 weeks go. Could definitely get a cutter eventually around then, but man did I like what I saw from the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except the nice Grinch cutter on 12/21 Ughhhh if we go cold up until a cutter the 22nd I might start obsessing over the stock market instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That's more than two weeks away...I wouldn't worry myself about that at this point...it's pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except the nice Grinch cutter on 12/21 My hunch is that Grinch cutter may come in sooner or may disappear completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That's more than two weeks away...I wouldn't worry myself about that at this point...it's pointless. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lock it. Oh sure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Except the nice Grinch cutter on 12/21 And you know that will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro looks good for 12/13....gonna be a good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yeah that's a tasty look at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: For BOS: 2012: +3.9 2013: -1.2 2014: +3.5 2015: +10.6! 2016: +0.5 My cognitive dissonance came from both location and data interval. The local Farmington co-op for those years: 2012: +3.3 2013: -4.5 2014: +4.2 2015: +9.4! 2016: -2.2 BOS 5-yr: +3.5; Farm. +2.0 So 1.5F due to location. However, Farmington's Dec avg for 1981-2010 is 22.6, but it's 24.4 for 1998-2016, my period of record. (Kicking 1989, 6.2F, out of the set raises the avg almost 0.6F all by itself.) Dec 2012-16 vs the co-op 1998-2016 shows the same +0.2 as my records. Thus another 1.8F due to differing data periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice solid warning criteria for most of SNE on this run for that storm. Not that far out now...only 5-6 days. Hopefully we can start to get more guidance on board. GEFS looked decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The 13th is getting better, Would be great to follow up the weekend event with another system of more significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice solid warning criteria for most of SNE on this run for that storm. Not that far out now...only 5-6 days. Hopefully we can start to get more guidance on board. GEFS looked decent. Wish we could lock that in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lock it. I don’t care what the pattern is... those days around Christmas will suck. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice solid warning criteria for most of SNE on this run for that storm. Not that far out now...only 5-6 days. Hopefully we can start to get more guidance on board. GEFS looked decent. man, if the flow could just slow down 'that' much ... legends would be made - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro trying for another on 12/16. What a weenie run this is. Doesnt quite pop it for a big event but it does get more accumulating snow in here...and it's not far from much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice solid warning criteria for most of SNE on this run for that storm. Not that far out now...only 5-6 days. Hopefully we can start to get more guidance on board. GEFS looked decent. Nice, 988mb due S of ACK. Spread the wealth for ALL between the current storm and next weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro trying for another on 12/16. What a weenie run this is. Doesnt quite pop it for a big event but it does get more accumulating snow in here...and it's not far from much more. fascinating to see a repetition pattern set up ... its been over a decade since i've seen that. particularly in virtually every one you have multi stream handshaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The winter drum rolls, once from afar, are closing in rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The winter drum rolls, once from afar, are closing in rapidly. So loud it’s hurting my weenie ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 LAlaland, but that is modeled to be a pretty cold storm in the interior. Mid 10s and warning snows. Just like the ones I used to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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