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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Looked like it hit him good?  Hour 150 has 0.4" QPF in 6-hours for KTOLLA. 

Probably a 4-8" event for him verbatim but I gotta get the free maps.

It was a little warm near 925 until it got going. I wasn't going to get too cute this far out, but yeah a few inches maybe.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It could be. I have no idea how they are created, but the boundary layer looked borderline to start in that storm next week. Anyways, silly to get too picky this far out. The euro seems better for all as a whole.

Yeah don't mean to drag out this convo, haha. 

As long as we continue to see something in that time frame we've got a long way to go for details.  I would think if the models can't fully resolve two days from now that they may not have the handle on Day 5-6 ha.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It could be. I have no idea how they are created, but the boundary layer looked borderline to start in that storm next week. Anyways, silly to get too picky this far out. The euro seems better for all as a whole.

I like that product better than just about anything out there.  It doesn't assume accumulation or a ratio of the snow itself; we have to make that assumption. It just says precipitation falling as snow. 

 

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There's 925mb temperatures of -2c at 144 hours which fall to -5c at 150 hours.  I fail to see how that's not falling as snow...even if it's wet non-accumulating snow. 

 

 

I saw it as 0C where Kev is at 925. Definitely colder just to the north, so it would not take much. Hopefully it bombs to the SE. 

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