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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z GFS makes the mid week storm a bomb at the benchmark, 985mb, it does it as it closes off at H5,

 

00z GFS shows the western PNA ridge located further west, allowing our jets to phase closer to the benchmark

No wonder we’re losing wars.   We think farts are bombs.

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Just now, weathafella said:

We’ve lost every war since WW2 but who’s counting.  It doesn’t wrap up until it’s in the gulf of Maine.

Trends weathfella, Jerry trends, from the 12z runs to now, this was a trend in the right direction, that trough at h5 closes off much further south than recent runs, this is a step in the right direction

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Just now, weathafella said:

Next week is cold-that’s for sure.   But this first few days of this pattern is not.  Good luck with the snow.

Thanks, the GFS dumps a good 6" of snow on me, but I will have to check the coolwx,com maps, those have never failed me, they are much more accurate then the dumb model generated snowfall maps on weatherbell and other sites

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Trends weathfella, Jerry trends, from the 12z runs to now, this was a trend in the right direction, that trough at h5 closes off much further south than recent runs, this is a step in the right direction

That mid week storm is a non starter for SNE.... punt that thing as far as you can.

Id be more interested in whatever if anything comes after that 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Meh...who is worrying about QPF at that time range? It's a potent clipper on that run, but I only really care whether it has a storm or not at this point.

thanks Dendrite, I agree, not focusing on the precip map, just to see where the baroclinic zone is, and it is not as far offshore as previous runs have shown, it is much closer to something awesome

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Just now, yoda said:

True, I was just more pointing out that the 985 SLP isn't showing the snowstorm he thinks it is

Look I am not stupid, I don't throw out false hoods that no one can believe in, whether or not you think its possible is another story.  But I see the water vapor imagery right now that +PNA/-EPO west coast ridge is moving westward as flow on the front side of the ridge is moving north to south and is moving further west

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Look I am not stupid, I don't throw out false hoods that no one can believe in, whether or not you think its possible is another story.  But I see the water vapor imagery right now that +PNA/-EPO west coast ridge is moving westward as flow on the front side of the ridge is moving north to south and is moving further west

So then all the 00z models tonight are wrong?  UKIE jumped ship as well fwiw

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