40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 10 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like we could have a full on phased jet structured storm system become a large nor'easter with snow and wind come Friday of this week and into Saturday, GFS shows the jets disconnected now, but we just need the northern stream to speed up some, which has happened in the past, remember the Blizzard of 2010, Boxing Day Blizzard 2010? I don't see anything remotely close to sufficient ridging out west to allow us to avail of that potential. Its there initially, but gets shunted. The hope is that the clipper dives enough to induce something noteworthy on its own accord, but I would like to see the ridge out west hold better in that regard, as well. Looks lame. Sorry- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks pretty diesel in the LR. Can’t win em all in the SR, but it’s a december to remember if individual systems can pop favorably day 7 and beyond. It will def. get better....but I wouldn't batten down the hatches quite yet. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 You are probably right Ray, maybe we don't get a blockbuster, but I would gladly take a 3-6" event for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You are probably right Ray, maybe we don't get a blockbuster, but I would gladly take a 3-6" event for Friday That's dubious, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The evolution of "the little clipper that couldn't" certainly looks more ominous this GFS run, but the flow is just too progressive. Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z GFS looks crazy in the long range, agreeing with the EPS and GEFS on the large -EPO block returning with a -25C PV moving into Hudson Bay. I mean I wouldn't normally post a 384 map, but this is just incredible and supported by ensemble guidance as well as MJO progression for a while...should provide a very fun period of winter around the Holidays: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Still have to watch the end of the week deal. That might be enough to clip the area with some snows hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Gfs op says enjoy your Grinchmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Friday looks like 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Yeah... I wouldn't sell on Friday based on what I'm seeing anyway - punt tomorrow ... save for the elevations and farther up into NNE... Jesus, even BGR slabs to +7 C at 900 mb, and our winds are already SW down here ... there's literally 0 ageostrophic component even offer glazing. We'll see how it plays out but I'm fine and less shocked at the notion of this just simply having not turned in our favor as we've closed in on it in time. As for Friday, as James and other's have noted ...and is common sense really, the flow doesn't offer up a solid state sampling of that potential in the atmosphere until mid week. And, given to the "flattish" (while still being SOME semblance of +PNAP) pattern, that also means that it's going to likely rocket from the west coast of N/A to the east coast in under 72 hours (fast flow notwitsanding either). All of which usually isn't the best modeling performance circumstances to begin with. Let's see ...over the last 8 days we've witness a solid winter storm go from prevalent, to gone, to insisted by the NAM...to everyone doubting said NAM, to NAM ultimately scoring a coup even though it too wavered in late innings... interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... I wouldn't sell on Friday based on what I'm seeing anyway - punt tomorrow ... save for the elevations and farther up into NNE... Jesus, even BGR slabs to +7 C at 900 mb, and our winds are already SW down here ... there's literally 0 ageostrophic component even offer glazing. We'll see how it plays out but I'm fine and less shocked at the notion of this just simply having not turned in our favor as we've closed in on it in time. As for Friday, as James and other's have noted ...and is common sense really, the flow doesn't offer up a solid state sampling of that potential in the atmosphere until mid week. And, given to the "flattish" (while still being SOME semblance of +PNAP) pattern, that also means that it's going to likely rocket from the west coast of N/A to the east coast in under 72 hours (fast flow notwitsanding either). All of which usually isn't the best modeling performance circumstances to begin with. Let's see ...over the last 8 days we've witness a solid winter storm go from prevalent, to gone, to insisted by the NAM...to everyone doubting said NAM, to NAM ultimately scoring a coup even though it too wavered in late innings... interesting.. For the record, NAM didn’t pick this up (this past weekend system) until others were already firm. Then it went gangbusters. At least that’s how I remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: For the record, NAM didn’t pick this up (this past weekend system) until others were already firm. Then it went gangbusters. At least that’s how I remember it. I saw the NAM hit that at 78 or 84 hours ... I think it picked it up right out of the box actually - could be wrong... But it really, relative to it's standards, did fantastic for beyond 60 hours... And quite objectively, as a total event stack ... it performed the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs op says enjoy your Grinchmas. One Grinch storm after another with a long duration rain for 23-25. Wretchcable. Only good think it is long range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The issue I see with the potential later in the week, right now, is there is a de-amplifying ridge out west. If that can hold onto that ridging a bit it would allow for downstream troughing and the potential for the storm to hit southern areas. Not gonna be a blockbuster storm by any stretch but a modest event could occur if that ridge holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The issue I see with the potential later in the week, right now, is there is a de-amplifying ridge out west. If that can hold onto that ridging a bit it would allow for downstream troughing and the potential for the storm to hit southern areas. Not gonna be a blockbuster storm by any stretch but a modest event could occur if that ridge holds. Yeah flow is rather progressive so nothing more than a light event if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Cfs has a cold January Epo on the gefs is going to be freefall mode next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 hours ago, nzucker said: 0z GFS looks crazy in the long range, agreeing with the EPS and GEFS on the large -EPO block returning with a -25C PV moving into Hudson Bay. I mean I wouldn't normally post a 384 map, but this is just incredible and supported by ensemble guidance as well as MJO progression for a while...should provide a very fun period of winter around the Holidays: 50 minutes ago, klw said: One Grinch storm after another with a long duration rain for 23-25. Wretchcable. Only good think it is long range GFS Ok, so from what I can see these two quotes are completely opposite? One guy says it(LR) looks incredible, the other says the LR is wretched? The GFS says one thing at 0z, and then the complete Opposite at 6z? Obviously it's an OP run and all that....just amazing how opposite the two posts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I saw the NAM hit that at 78 or 84 hours ... I think it picked it up right out of the box actually - could be wrong... But it really, relative to it's standards, did fantastic for beyond 60 hours... And quite objectively, as a total event stack ... it performed the best. Could someone confirm? Am I “misremembering”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 12z NAM is better with the Clipper energy, it is more consolidated in the form of one piece out ahead of the other energy for later in the weekend. The Friday clipper looks robust right now as of the 12z run. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Actually NAM has two pieces of energy phase with the Pacific jet energy racing out ahead of the arctic shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ok, so from what I can see these two quotes are completely opposite? One guy says it(LR) looks incredible, the other says the LR is wretched? The GFS says one thing at 0z, and then the complete Opposite at 6z? Obviously it's an OP run and all that....just amazing how opposite the two posts are. Lots of storms, marginal (or worse) temps. At least it shouldn't be dull, as seen from this (ridiculous) distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Cfs has a cold January Epo on the gefs is going to be freefall mode next week. Great, we look and trust the cfs now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 There is subtle differences in the orientation of the flow over the northeast that may allow for a weak clipper type storm. Here are the 00z Euro and GFS 500mb for comparison. As you can see the flow is compressed over the northeast lon the GFS and the Euro has the flow just a hair less compressed and tilted the flow more ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Could someone confirm? Am I “misremembering”? I don’t think so Roger. Nam was all waffles. But Tip is always right, we defer to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Like holy sh it, balls cold and storms a brewin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 You can also see how the Euro lags that s/w in the SW which we've seen historically as a bias so something to keep in mind. By doing that it relaxes the flow in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Like holy sh it, balls cold and storms a brewin Holy -EPO. That should dislodge some cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah flow is rather progressive so nothing more than a light event if at all. Nickel and dime pattern for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 And now that I say that GFS looks more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Like holy sh it, balls cold and storms a brewin I don't think I have ever seen a -EPO that low before wow!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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