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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro looks like 1-3” for Bos Pvd Southeast. Highest amounts look to be further SE you go.

Looked like flurries for you. 

The bump west has started. For your area sticking may be a problem with temps mid 30’s. Don’t be shocked at all as this continues to sneak back west with the WAR out there 

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Just now, kdxken said:

 By what point ? Next week ? 

I think Ray was saying after the 15th....I wouldn't feel great about banging KU style totals until I see some gradient relax and/or a more defined block. Doesn't mean we can't get it to happen, but we're fighting both gradient and speed in the current pattern. It's a great pattern for cold and snow overall, but I'd tend to favor quicker hitting systems. Still, you can nuke out a 12-15" storm in 8 hours if things break right...we had one last year on Feb 9th....fast mover but it went to town.

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a damaging event there...  as in sh!t happening to reality exposed to the elements... 

There are certain fundamental aspects of the atmosphere  ... and that much excessive deepening can't happen without shock and awe restoring forces ...  I can't even begin to guess at the isol. wind component....   996 to 948 mb in 12 hours is ...well, I wonder if that can even happen in the first place.  But that's a very special special evolution being depicted across that critical 9 hours there...  

It's not just the isol wind, but it's hugely augmented by the fact that you simply cannot pop the top off the atmosphere like that with 5 isotachs closing off across like 5 hours and not fold.  

Tip, didn't the Cleveland Super Bomb have a similar deepening?   And heck, we were both at ground zero for that (I was in SBN).

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not really, Especially when it cuts off the eastern half of the board with a NY view.

Lol.

 

The only thing that shows me is something we kind of already know...there's plenty of uncertainty in the weekend outcome. Plenty of spread.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is any guidance currently getting anything back that far? I mean most guidance barely gets it back here.

Will alluded to reasons it may or may not move west, but who knows at this point 

Yeah the reasons are there. I would not be shocked if it came west.  As far as next week goes, it's a nice look, but one thing at a time. That s/w could  grind out or miss east too. The extended looks nice with maybe a little more closer of a storm track later in the 11-15 day. Could be a good thing. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is any guidance currently getting anything back that far? I mean most guidance barely gets it back here.

Will alluded to reasons it may or may not move west, but who knows at this point 

Only the majority of ensemble guidance. Look bigger picture than simple op runs. Dig deeper, expand the mind and broaden horizons 

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